Markets kick off 2009 with sizable rally… what’s behind the best New Year’s rally since 2003…  Obama bounce back in effect… Rob Parenteau on whether his $1 trillion plan will actually work… Dan Amoss on the difference between shorting in 2008 and 2009… Bullish factors for gold (and gold stocks) for 2009… The second wave cometh… more troublesome commercial real estate ripples on the horizon.

For the first time in a long time, we can tell you today that the U.S. stock market is up year to date:

The major indexes rang in the new year with a 3% rally on Friday — the best first day of a new year in the last six. And a sharp contrast to 2008, when the Dow had its worst opening day since 1983.

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On New Years eve day, gold got sold off in the Far East a bit…and then the down trend accelerated through London trading, with the bottom being the London p.m. gold fix. From there…and to everyone’s surprise…the price took off to the upside with some real authority. True, there hadn’t been a lot of volume up until that point, but that changed from the London p.m. fix until the close of trading in New York. Silver’s chart was very similar, with the metal turning in an outstanding day as well. Gold put in an “outside day key reversal to the upside”…which is a very bullish technical indicator. The boyz have never…ever…allowed this technical indicator to work in gold…and have taken gold down the very next day to negate it.

The world’s gold market’s were closed on January 1st, but once early morning trading began on January 2nd in the Far East,

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GoldDrivers 2009 – Extraordinary Bullish Outlook for Gold

By: Eric Hommelberg ldSeek.com

Dollar topping out Physical demand skyrocketing Supply chain shutting down COMEX Gold Manipulation exposed Gold shares on the move again

It sure has been a brutal year for gold and its shares and many may wonder if the $1030 top clocked in March 2008 marked the top for the gold bull market that started in April 2001. Despite the fact that many analysts want you to believe that gold has failed to act as a

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HIDDEN VALUE

Dear Value Seeker,

U.S interest rates are now near zero.

Just like doomed Japan during the country’s “lost decade” in the 1990s.

Yesterday, the Fed cut interest rates to a record low range of 0 to 0.25 percent.

America’s central bank says the weak economy will “warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.”

[Translation: After sinking the US economy in a sea of credit, the Fed wants to ‘fix’ the problem with even more of the stuff.]

And it left the door open for more “extraordinary” measures to fight the economic enemy du jour: deflation.

Or in Fed speak… “The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity.”

At this point, there are no real limitations on what “Helicopter Ben” might do in his crusade to fix the wounded economy.

He

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The Federal Reserve used up almost all of its remaining conventional ammo today as it desperately tries to prevent the second Great Depression. The statement is below, along with the previous statement, and with my commentary interspersed."The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent."  "The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 1 percent." Hard to believe that just six weeks ago the fed funds rate was at 1.50%. Now we are near zero. The use of a range is unusual and perhaps unprecedented. Then again, the fed funds rate has never been this low before, and at the low end of the range I can safely say that it is a record that will never be ...

HIDDEN VALUE

Dear Value Seeker,

Welcome to the 100th edition of Hidden Value.

The financial world was a far more tranquil place when we started this daily newsletter on July 25. But we knew a storm was brewing…

“Automakers bailout falls apart in Senate” reads a Marketwatch headline today.

Republican Senators blocked the passage of a $14 billion loan to Detroit ‘bad boys’ GM and Chrysler. A refusal of the United Auto Workers, headed by Ron Gettelfinger, to agree to lower wages and benefits by a certain point in 2009 was reportedly the key sticking point.

“Bankruptcy is the best possible result. I am sick and tired of taxpayer money funding corporate ineptitude,” says Mike Shedlock on his Global Economic Analysis blog. “Nonetheless I am fearful that [President] Bush and [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi will try one more time to revive the dead.”

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The markets are looking over the worst spending slump in 60 years…that planet’s first Worldwide Bailout… And look at that - we’re back to the ‘deficits don’t matter’ stance…the more the Fed tries to fix the problem, the worse it gets… Savers are losing a couple of percent per year to inflation…investors are losing money in every asset class…and more!

The rally seems to be continuing. The Dow rose 70 points yesterday. Oil slid up to $44. Commodities went up too. And gold shot up $34 - to $808.

The markets must be “looking ahead”…right over the worst economic news in 60 years.

It’s the “worst spending slump since ‘42,” says a headline at Bloomberg. In ‘42, the United States was at war with Japan and Germany. And it looked for a while as though we might lose! No wonder spending collapsed…the economy was shifting to a ‘war footing.’

And now spending is collapsing

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Hyperinflation: A Real World Example…can it happen to the dollar?

This is from humorland blog.

Amazing.

If you think that the current economic crisis is something that has never happened in history before, you may be wrong! After the collapse of the agriculture sector in Zimbabwe in 2000, the inflation in that country skyrocketed to 231 million percent a year! Just think about it - 231 000 000%! Unemployment went up to 80% and a third of country’s population left it.

Let`s now have a look at the photos that you may not be able to see anywhere else in the world.

Here is a boy getting change in 200 000 dollar notes!

One 200 000 dollar note equals less than $0.10 cents.

December 22nd, a new note of 500 000 dollars introduced to the market!

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The Feds try to reflate the world economy with $10 trillion but at what cost? As predicted in this space, the November payrolls were down a lot more than expected. Economists thought there would be 350,000 layoffs. Instead, the actual number was 200,000 more.

But US investors shrugged off the employment news. The rally continued…it has gone on for a month. The Dow rose again yesterday; this time it was up 298 points to 8,934. If the rally retraces 50% of the losses, it will make it all the way to 11,000. So, this trend probably has a way to go.

Oil rose too – back up to $43. And gold shot up $17 to $769.

Commodities, stocks, precious metals – almost everything was up yesterday.

One important exception: treasury bonds. The yield on ten-year T-notes rose to 2.76%…leading Bloomberg to report:

“Treasuries fall as US to sell more securities than expected.”

Watch those Treasury yields.

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Red Alert: Gold Backwardation!!!

– Posted Friday, 5 December 2008

Antal E. Fekete

Gold Standard University Live

December 2, 2008, was a landmark in the saga of the collapsing international monetary system, yet it did not deserve to be reported in the press: gold went to backwardation for the first time ever in history. The facts are as follows: on December 2nd, at the Comex in New York, December gold futures (last delivery: December 31) were quoted at 1.98% discount to spot, while February gold futures (last delivery: February 27, 2009) were quoted at 0.14% discount to spot. (All percentages annualized.) The condition got worse on December 3rd, when the corresponding figures were 2% and 0.29%. This means that the gold basis has turned negative, and the condition of backwardation persisted for at least 48 hours. I am writing this in the wee hours of December 4th, when trading of gold futures has not

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