Article Source Or, is the model for explaining why macro data sometimes appear so counter to intuition best explained by willful deception (Iraq and WMDs), incompetence (the FEMA response to Katrina), or prosaic (resource constraints)? The casual reader might think I'm overstating the extreme hypotheses, but there is, after all, a whole website devoted to the proposition of conspiracy: Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting. Here's John Williams' exhibit 1 in the case against the government: Figure 1, drawn from John Williams' "Shadow Government Statistics" website. The other extreme view holds that incompetence is the problem. (This blogger does not use the word, but the adjective seems implicit in the discussion). Personally, I think that many of these shortcomings in the data series ...