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Brrrr…. What Happened to Global Warming?

Aaron Katsman (January 7th, 2009) Writes:

Hey Al Gore? What happened to the polar Ice caps melting by the end of ‘08? Hate to inform you but not only didn’t they melt, they are back to the same level as in 1979! What do you have to say about that?

In an article in Daily Tech, “Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close.

Ice levels had been tracking lower throughout much of 2008, but rapidly recovered in the last quarter. In fact, the rate of increase from September onward is the fastest rate of change on record, either upwards or downwards.”

Basically, this whole global warming hysteria is a big money grad and way to redistribute the wealth. I saw a funny comment by mjcutri, which sums up how crazy this

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Israel at War With Hamas: Tel-Aviv Surges

Aaron Katsman (January 4th, 2009) Writes:

Who says that war is bad for the stock market? Israeli investors are pushing up the Tel-Aviv 25 more than 2% today, as traders view the war with Hamas favorably. With last night’s expansion of the war to include thousands of ground troops, tanks and artillery, one would have thought that the TA-25 would have reacted negatively. Clearly market participants believe that Israel will succeed with a swift and total victory, and the renewed security for southern Israel will be a boon for the local economy.

If heaven forbid, Israel were to get bogged down in an urban war, and suffer casualties, I am not sure that the market momentum would continue, but let’s all pray that Israel, is able to destroy the enemy without taking many casualties.

Please see our Disclaimer HERE.

Aaron Katsman is Managing Editor of the Israel Opportunity Investor newsletter. He is lead portfolio manager for the

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‘09 Predictions

Aaron Katsman (December 31st, 2008) Writes:

With the curtain closing on 2008, it’s time for me to take out my crystal ball and predict what will happen in 2009.

1- Even with a surge in the polls, due to the Israeli/Hamas conflict, both Ehud Barak and Tzipi Livni will falter badly in the upcoming Israeli elections, paving the way for former PM Benjamin Netanyahu to reclaim the title, Prime Minister.

2- Due to continued falling crude oil prices, Iran civil unrest will lead to an overthrow of Ahmadinejad.

3- The earth will continue to cool, and Obama will have to back off some of his environmentally friendly campaign promises.

4- As cracks form in the European Union and talk heats up whether the Euro will continue to exist as a currency, the US Dollar will make a strong move back to parity against the Euro.

5- US economic growth will rebound much earlier than expected, end of Q1, and we will

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Judging the ‘08 Predictions

Aaron Katsman (December 24th, 2008) Writes:

As 2008 comes to a close, let’s take a look back at the predictions this pundit made a year ago. Let’s start out with some of my correct calls:

1- At some point during the year the price of crude oil will trade below $75 a barrel. This will be great for the consumer as they save a lot of money at the pump, and will cause a crashing of many alternative energy stocks, especially the Solar plays like First Solar(FSLR).

Nailed that one!

4- Late in the summer the current Israeli government headed by PM Ehud Olmert will fall, and new elections will be called.

Many will say that was a no-brainer.

6- The earth will cool, there will be no global warming.

Just look outside your window.

Now for some of the less accurate predictions:

2- There will be no recession in the US economy, despite the best

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Israel’s MediGuide Bought For $300 million

Aaron Katsman (December 22nd, 2008) Writes:

What would you say if I told you that there was a company that developed GPS-like technology for the human body? You’d probably say that that is really cool. Well leave it to Israeli ingenuity and creativity to create such a cutting-edge technology. In fact it’s such an interesting technology that St. Jude Medical(STJ) has bought the Israeli company for $300m.

In a market with very little M&A, this makes 2 acquisitions of Israeli companies in as many months. Johnson & Johnson(JNJ) bought Omrix Biopharmaceuticals(OMRI) as well. This shows that multi-nationals would rather outsource their R&D than develop it in-house. if this trend continues, it could get very interesting for Israeli hi-tech.

MediGuide was founded in 2000 by Gera Strommer, president and CEO, and Uzi Eichler, vice president technology, as a spin-off from Elbit Systems (Nasdaq: ESLT), which owns 41.3%

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Rebuilding Your Wealth

Aaron Katsman (December 19th, 2008) Writes:

Thanks to Bizzywomen.com for submitting this article.

Over the past 14 months, drastic market falls have caused many investors to lose significant portions of their savings. The U.S. market has fallen by more than 40%, while international markets are down by 60% or more in many cases.

In this scenario, one of the questions that I am most frequently asked is, “How do I make my money back?” My answer to this question is simple - don’t try to make your money back. If you try, chances are that you are going to take unnecessary risks and end up losing even more money. For this reason, the best advice may not be something that many investors want to hear. It is probably better to forget about the past and concentrate on the future. While the markets are getting hammered, stocks are

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The Mother of All Ponzi Schemes

Aaron Katsman (December 12th, 2008) Writes:

What else could happen in the world of finance. 2008 has certainly been a pretty lousy year and now we have sunk to the lowest of the low, as former Nasdaq stock market chairman Bernard Madoff was arrested on claims that he ran a Ponzi scheme. He purportedly lost tons and tons of money in bad investments and then took fresh principal that was invested with his firm to pay off earlier investors. Losses are estimated to be at least $50 billion. Yes, that’s not a misprint, $50 billion. Yikes.

According to Marketwatch: ” On Wednesday, Madoff told two senior employees that he was “finished,” that he had “absolutely nothing,” that “it’s all just one big lie,” and that it was “basically, a giant Ponzi scheme,” federal prosecutors said in their statement.

According to a criminal complaint filed on Thursday and cited by the ...

Israeli Budget Gap to Widen

Aaron Katsman (December 11th, 2008) Writes:

Due to the economic slowdown, which will hurt tax receipts, as well as an expected pickup in government spending, the Bank of Israel has estimated that the Israeli budget deficit will reach 3% of GDP. This happens to be a great number compared to the rest of the developed world where it is much higher, over 4% in most cases.

According to a JPost article, Stanley Fischer has nonetheless called for a reduction in taxes: “The government should go ahead with its plan to reduce taxes next year, even while the deficit is expected to grow, as tax receipts fall due to the slowdown and government spending rises.”

The fact is that by cutting taxes, government tax collection will actually increase, as supply-side economics has continually taught us. If people make more money, even if they pay a lower tax rate, the amount they pay will actually be greater.

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Israel Defense Exports Drop: Still Among World’s Top Players

Aaron Katsman (December 11th, 2008) Writes:

Even though Israeli defense exports are expected to fall by 10% for ‘08, Israel still ranks in the top 10 of global defense exporters. Depending on which list you go by Israel is either in 4th or 8th place. Not bad for a small little country.

According to an article in Globes: ”

According to figures released by the US Congressional Research Service, Israel was the seventh largest arms exporter during the period 2000-2007 with sales worth an aggregate $10.8 billion. The US topped the rankings with an aggregate $123 billion in sales, followed by Russia with $62.2 billion, France - $29.2 billion, the UK - $25.2 billion, Germany - $12.6 billion, and China - $10.8 billion. In eighth place behind Israel, came Italy with $6.5 billion, followed by Spain with $6.5 billion, and Ukraine with $5.5 billion.

However, Ministry of Defense figures estimate Israel’s total exports in 2000-2007 nearer to

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Say Bye Bye to That End of Year Raise

Aaron Katsman (December 7th, 2008) Writes:

So you thought that you did great work and you are due to get a big pay raise? Well, think again. According to a report by the The Manufacturers Association of Israel, there is a good chance that your employer is about to cancel any potential pay raise. In an article in Globes: “46% of industrial companies have canceled employee pay hikes planned for 2009, and 40% of companies have canceled bonuses, according to a new survey by the Manufacturers Association of Israel of 50 companies. The firms surveyed ranged from small to large, and included all manufacturing sectors.”

This is just more evidence that the Israeli economic growth has come to a standstill, and the outlook is not all that hot. The good news is that companies are taking these cost cutting steps before things get really bad. What that means is

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