The very useful comparison of the current US stock market rally with that of 1982 is provided in the table below, courtesy of Barry Ritholtz, writer of The Big Picture blog.

It is when looking at the characteristics of a typical market bottom that one has difficulty seeing that the March ‘09 lows were in fact a primary bull market turning point. “Maybe this time it really is different, I guess we’re going to find out,” said Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters).

Source: Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture, November 18, 2009.

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The very useful comparison of the current US stock market rally with that of 1982 is provided in the table below, courtesy of Barry Ritholtz, writer of The Big Picture blog.

It is when looking at the characteristics of a typical market bottom that one has difficulty seeing that the March ‘09 lows were in fact a primary bull market turning point. “Maybe this time it really is different, I guess we’re going to find out,” said Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters).

Source: Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture, November 18, 2009.

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The post below is republished courtesy of Trader Mark, writer of the Fund My Mutual Fund blog (hat tip: Damien Hoffman of Wall St Cheat Sheet).

Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards is generally considered an uber bear, although there were times in the past year he has tactically increased exposure to equities to take advantage of oversold conditions. Now is not one of those times. In fact, Edwards chimes in with many similar thoughts we’ve posted on the fundamentals … but sticks his neck out calling for new lows in 2010.

While the belief from this blog writer is this will all end badly, knowing when and how will be the ultimate question. Without the massive intervention by central banks and governments we’d have a different landscape; and without knowing to what lengths these people will continue to go to, it’s much more difficult to predict the intermediate

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Be afraid; be very afraid.

From "'Created or saved' doesn't add up", by Joseph Lawler:

...[t]he "created or saved" numbers are meaningless. The administration purposefully devised the metric to be nebulous. Without a counterfactual, showing the trend of unemployment in the absence of the stimulus, it is impossible to know how many jobs the stimulus saved.

But this is completely counter to what I learned in economics, and how, for instance, the CBO conducts analysis. I assume Mr. Lawler doesn't dispute the impartiality of the CBO (but who knows?). Here's the way real macroeconomists conduct analysis:

As the President has discussed, analysis done within the Administration has shown how his tax cuts have substantially offset the series of adverse shocks that have been buffeting the economy. Simulations of a conventional macroeconomic model show that, without the tax cuts, the level of real GDP would have been about 2 percent lower in the

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Joshua Brown, writer of The Reformed Broker blog, has just updated his list of top finance blogs. He has also put together a very handy, and humorous, graphic of his rather unique categorization. Brown said the blogs included have “either inspired, educated or entertained me in some way, so I figured I’d return the favor”.

It is a great honor for Investment Postcards to be included in the company of some industry heavy weights. Merci beaucoup for the compliment Josh!

Click on the image below to enlarge the table.

The sites included in the table are listed below, together with links to the specific sites. (Please note that the numbering of the blogs does not represent a ranking system.)

Rocket Science (macroeconomics, monetary policy, real estate, regulation)

BP The Big Picture EV ...

Lost in today's news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) was acquiring Burlington Northern (BNI) was the announcement that Berkshire's "B" shares, or, commonly known by investors as the "cheaper" shares, would be split 50 to 1.

It is rare to see a stock split for either the Berkshire "A" shares or the "B" shares. Over the years, Warren Buffett has resisted calls to split the stock.

The "A" shares have long been out of reach for nearly everyone except professional investors. In the past 52 weeks, those shares traded in the range of $70,000 to $119,000 per share.

The "A" shares are obviously not very attainable for most investors.

Many investors turned to the "B" shares but even those "cheaper" shares traded in the range of $2241 to $3969 in the last 52 weeks. Again, for many investors, owning a share of Berkshire was likely out of

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The Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering, a conference bringing together global regulators and bankers to discuss and debate new ideas and develop a new set of guidelines moving forward, has just taken place in New York. Michael Panzer, writer of the Financial Armageddon blog and author of “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse”, was in attendance and has kindly shared some of the more interesting quotes on his blog, as reported below.

Secretary Tim Geithner, United States Department of the Treasury:

“Generally, we did not do enough.” (Referring to the failure to address growing concerns over excessive risk-taking in the period leading up to the financial crisis.) [Editor's note: understatement of the year?]

Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia:

Those who are looking for a “V”-shaped recovery are in for “a rude awakening.”

“The imbalances going into the crisis were large to begin with.

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David Blair, writer of The Crosshairs Trader blog, has compiled a list of simple, yet very fundamental truths for stock traders based on the letters of the alphabet. David is also the author of the excellent trading e-book, When 10 is Greater than 90.

A wise man chooses to do in the beginning what the fool is forced to do in the end.

Better to be wrong and rich than right and broke.

Create an atmosphere of confidence and you will never choke on the bone of contention.

Develop an edge and stick to it. If you are not living on the edge then you are falling off of one.

Enter the market prepared or you will exit impaired.

Forget the last trade or the market will steal your next one.

Giving in to

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In this three-part interview, Andy Rothman China macro strategist of CLSA, discusses a number of China-related issues with Ben McLannahan, Asia Lex writer of the Financial Times.

Part 1: Rothman on why there’s no China bubble

Click here or on the image below to view the video.

Part 2: Rothman on the renminbi and the health of Chinese consumer spending

Click here or on the image below to view the video.

Part 3: Rothman on risks that may derail China rebound

Click here or on the image below to view the video.

Source: Ben McLannahan Financial Times (

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Recently at the House of Journalists in Moscow a book launch event was held by Igor Sutyagin - who is well known not only as a fellow of the USA and Canada Institute, but also as one of Russia's most famous political prisoners, after getting a 15-year jail sentence on a fabricated case by the FSB.  There were a lot of people there, with majority of them being human rights advocates. There were practically no journalists, which isn't really surprising: once a person is sitting in jail in the name of the FSB, then in a state that is all FSB through and through, and to whom practically all the mass information media belong, there is

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