Analysts are trumpeting the recent drop in oil prices as a step toward normalcy. But is this celebration premature? Or perhaps even misplaced? After all, we all know that over the long haul, energy prices are headed in only one direction - higher. Crude oil plunged 8% to close at $106.23 a barrel last week - reaching its lowest level in five months - as the U.S. dollar strengthened to its highest point against the European euro so far this year. Crude oil prices actually declined for six straight days - the longest stretch since they did so from April 30, 2007 to May 7, 2007. U.S. fuel demand dropped 3.5% during the past four weeks. And unemployment spiked much more than economists had predicted. Even so, oil prices are still 41% higher than they were a year ago. "Demand destruction and the strength of ...

By William Patalon III Executive Editor Money Morning/The Money Map Report Can it be earnings season already? It sure is, but don’t expect too much. With its report tomorrow (Tuesday), Alcoa Inc. (AA) leads off what is expected to be a pretty dismal series of profit reports. Thomson Reuters now estimates that second-quarter earnings declined by 11.1%, which is significantly worse than the projected 2% decline that was made back in April. Of course, financials will lead the charge in terms of these dire expectations, followed closely behind by consumer discretionary (which reflects the lagging confidence measures).  Technology is also expected to struggle; these days management must think long and hard about investing in any major systems upgrades. But the real key to the stock market’s future may well lay with major multinationals. In recent quarters, many multinational companies - we often ...

By William Patalon III Executive Editor Money Morning/The Money Map Report With the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 20% from its October peak - placing it firmly in bear-market territory after what’s so far been its worst June since the Great Depression - neither institutional traders nor individual investors seem able to find anything positive about the economy, corporate climate or financial markets. The subprime-mortgage mess and the ensuing credit crisis continues to exact a toll on the financial-services sector, meaning we can be certain those write-downs won’t be ending anytime soon. Oil prices can’t seem to find a ceiling as new records are again being set - regardless of whether you choose to call it market fundamentals or speculation. The U.S. Federal Reserve surveyed the financial landscape last week and left interest rates unchanged for the time since September as ...

By William Patalon III Executive Editor Money Morning/The Money Map Report Oil and jet-fuel prices are in the stratosphere, many of the world’s top airlines have ordered severe cutbacks, and passenger traffic is falling, so why is Dubai funneling 82 billion of its petrodollars into an aerospace project that includes plans for the world’s largest airport? The answer is simple. Dubai isn’t concerned about the near-term turbulence that has sent global investors diving for cover and induced airline-industry executives to hanger portions of their jetliner fleets. The leaders of that Middle Eastern country have taken a long and studious look at the powerful global trends that are destined to play out over the next 20, 30 or even 40 years, and have crafted their plans accordingly. In a broad sense, that focus on the long term is a lesson U.S. investors would be ...

By William Patalon III Executive Editor Money Morning/The Money Map Report The U.S. Federal Reserve will be in the spotlight again this week - and not because of those speaking engagements that seem to help whipsaw investor emotions. Tomorrow (Tuesday) and Wednesday, central bank Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will meet with his fellow policymakers on the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). After one of the most aggressive rate-cutting campaigns in its history - a stretch that’s seen the Fed pare its benchmark Federal Funds rate from 5.25% in mid-September all the way down to 2.0% today - most experts believe the central bank’s next move will be to take interest rates higher to blunt inflation. But few of these Fed-watchers are willing to predict that the increase will be made now, or even in August, although the interest-rate-futures market is ...

By William Patalon lll Investors better keep an eye on bonds this week. While the stock market may be more fun to follow, fixed income is often a stronger gauge of investor expectations of the economy, future U.S. Federal Reserve policy, and inflation. With the consumer price index (CPI) safely in the books for another month, economists can now turn their focus to wholesale inflation with the release of the May producer price index (PPI). Economists, mistakenly, often disregard the energy component of this data each month and focus mainly on the so-called “core” releases - which excludes “volatile food and energy prices.” While food and energy prices often suffer from month-to-month volatility based on seasonal factors, they cannot be overlooked these days as they continue to have significant impact on the global economy. Also, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) can’t seem ...