The Federal Reserve decided to keep the Federal Funds rate unchanged at the meeting it concluded today, as expected. Below is the current Fed Statement along with the one from their September meeting in paragraph-by-paragraph format, with my translation and commentary interspersed. As the graph below shows, the market is expecting the Fed to remain on hold, with Fed Funds between 0 and 25 basis points for an extended period. The graph shows the expected outcomes for the January meeting (before today’s announcement) from the Cleveland Fed. The market set the odds of anything other than standing pat at either today’s meeting or the December meeting effectively at zero. Reading off the chart, it looks like about a 95% probability of no action in January as well. I doubt we will see the Fed raise rates before the third quarter of 2010. The Fed is ...

The Federal Reserve decided to keep the Fed Funds rate at its historically low level, and noted that growth was starting to pick up and there was very little threat of near-term inflation. The current statement and the one from the previous meeting (8/12) are presented below, along with my analysis of the statements and the differences between them. "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn. Conditions in financial markets have improved further, and activity in the housing sector has increased. Household spending seems to be stabilizing, but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales....

Contraction Slowing, Inflation Not ImmediateThe Fed's statement from this month's meeting is presented below, along with its previous statement from the April meeting and my interpretation and commentary interspersed."Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales."Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, ...

Contrary to the prevailing analysis, we believe that the Obama and Bush administration insistence on protecting banks at the expense of the taxpayer is the result of a Machiavellian effort by Goldman Sachs and other major banks to influence U.S. economic policy by infiltrating the corridors of power.

Today, we duly note that Goldman Sachs has just hired former Barney Frank staffer Michael Paese to be its top Washington lobbyist. This position was formerly held by Mark Patterson, the current chief of staff at the Treasury.

Pease and Patterson are not the only ones to pass through the revolving door between Washington and Goldman. Bush’s Treasury secretary, Hank “The Hammer” Paulson is a former Goldman CEO. And his replacement, Tim Geithner, was mentored by Gerald Corrigan, a former New York Fed president and current partner and managing director of the Office of the Chairman of Goldman Sachs.

Who else was President Obama considering

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We highlight Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).Below we present both the most recent Federal Reserve statement and the previous one from its mid-March meeting along with my translation and interpretation interspersed between the paragraphs."Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower."Household spending has shown signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Weak sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories, fixed investment, and staffing."Although the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time. Nonetheless, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions ...

 

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 0 and 0.25% during a closed door meeting on January 27th and 28th, with the review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Federal Reserve Banks. Voting for this action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Dennis P. Lockhart; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.  Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to expand the monetary base at this time by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities rather than through targeted credit programs.

Recent economic reports suggests that the economy has weakened further.  Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending.  The Committee anticipates

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Tuesday January 27, 2009 Navivest

The Federal Reserve today announced that William C. Dudley has been tapped to serve as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He replaces Timothy Geithner, who was yesterday, confirmed by the Senate and sworn in to become the new Treasury Secretary in the Obama administration. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors has already approved his appointment.

The following is from his Federal Reserve Bio:

Mr. Dudley, 56, was executive vice president of the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He was also the manager of the System Open Market Account for the Federal Open Market Committee.

He oversaw domestic open market and foreign exchange trading operations and the provisions of account services to foreign central banks. Dudley expanded the Federal Reserve’s contacts with the buy-side investment community and through the Bank’s Treasury Market Practices Group

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