Normally, I don't care for predictions but considering this was the fellow who in 2005 said their could be a "super spike" in crude, let's see what he has to say (I am on record as saying a "World of Shortages" theme combined with Western governments flooding the world with fiat paper can only combine to ultimately create higher prices). These are the first people (along with Cramer - have to give him kudos) who finally are realizing that the world does not revolve around the United States of Subprime; a position I've been advocating for a long while. The quicker we move away from our country-centric views, the better. U.S. gasoline is no longer the leading fundamental driving oil markets, according to a report penned by Arjun Murti of Goldman Sachs Tuesday. Murti who famously predicted the dawn of the “super spike” back in March 2005, says ...

Before we get to the story let me refresh my thoughts... first I said this was a potential threat a few times, most recently in [Apr 23: Potash hits $1000 on Spot Market] I wrote If Western governments have any moral backbone they will at least jawbone pulling biofuel subsidies... this would cause backlash reaction in fertilizer even though biofuels are just a small piece of the puzzle. (again this is a minor risk at this point, especially with US elections coming but maybe Europe will react first?) While the biofuel situation is not the major driving factor of agflation that does not matter - perception is everything and go back to point (b) a lot of new investors to a hot sector who know little about the long term situation and just are going by sound bites "rice riots" "fertilizer is hot" "Neil Cavuto even likes fertilizer" ...