Is the recession technically over? The strongest argument for recovery we’ve seen yet… Rob Parenteau shares his new macro economic forecast… “Told you so!” writes Byron King — “breaking news” he and The 5 scooped in March 2008… Plus, Chris Mayer’s latest contrarian play…

Our forecast today: The government and mainstream media will soon be calling the end of the recession. Leading this feeble cause is the latest ISM manufacturing index, probably the most powerful argument for recovery we’ve seen yet:

This morning, the ISM said its gauge of manufacturing activity had risen to 52.9 in August – out of contraction for the first time since the recession began and the highest score since June 2007. Of course, things are a bit different now, but over the last 60 years, when the manufacturing sector returns to growth, the recession has already ended. That prospect

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June 25 (Bloomberg) – “Barack Obama may be the worst thing that ever happened to tax-exempt bonds …. “

We certainly agree and see more trouble for tax-exemption down the road.

Obama Chief of Staff, Emanuel said, “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.”, and the administration is taking that advice by sponsoring and subsidizing the issuance of fully taxable municipal bonds — “Build America Bonds” (the camel’s nose under the tent).

Presidents since Franklin D. Roosevelt have tried to tax the interest payments from municipal bonds without success, but the debt crisis has provided Obama with a way.

Build America Bonds (we prefer “Obama Bonds”) pay 35% of the interest cost for fully taxable muni bonds.

Presumably the subsidy also improves the credit quality of the bonds by having a portion of the interest come from the US Treasury.

Example Bonds YTM Rate Comparison:

We based our credit quality argument on logic suggesting the

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This story hasn't caught a lot of media attention, and its surely hasn't caught the market's attention, and I have been wondering why. The story I'm talking about is a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087amp;sid=aFzDnxkw.984amp;refer=home"President Obama's plan to close corporate tax loopholes for corporations doing business overseas/a. It is facing strong opposition from memebers of his own party. A couple of quick highlights:br /br /ulliPresident Barack Obama’s plan to end tax breaks for U.S.-based multinational companies drew a skeptical response from fellow Democrats on Capitol Hill, indicating that his proposal may face obstacles in Congress. /liliSenate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat, called for “further study” of Obama’s proposals within minutes of the president’s announcement yesterday. Joseph Crowley, a Democrat on the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, said he doesn’t want any tax changes to “harm” Citigroup, his New York district’s largest private-sector employer. /liliObama proposed outlawing three ...

Ghost of stimulus past warns… government spending “does not work”…Obama champions bill, nevertheless… Lew Rockwell provides voice of opposition…Geithner unveils TALF, TARP 2.0, whatever you want to call it… another $1 trillion-plus on the line…Time to go back to school, right? Maybe not…. MBA recruiting at record low….Not all market sectors in the drink, one high-end market still showing signs of life…

“We have tried spending money,” begins our mystery politician today. “We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. I say after eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started…

“And an enormous debt to boot!”

The mystery man? Henry Morgenthau Jr., Treasury secretary to then-President Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

Morgenthau uttered these words in May 1939 before the House Ways and

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President Barack Obama and Congressional leaders are having difficulty finding common ground on an economic recovery plan as Republican resistance to the stimulus package emerges in the House. The president and top Democrats and Republicans from the House and Senate planned to meet today to discuss the spending and tax cutting legislation that Obama has demanded to tackle the gloomy economy.

Yesterday, The House Ways and Means Committee approved $275 billion in tax cuts on a party-line vote of 24-13. The House Energy and Commerce Committee, also working on the bill, approved $2.8 billion to expand broadband service into underserved areas. And on Wednesday night, the House Appropriations Committee cleared a $358 billion spending measure on a 35-22 party-line vote.

Let us hear your thoughts below:

Alt Energy and Clean Tech Markets 2008 Year in Review and Looking Forward to 2009 Interview with Steve Strasser of Power Efficiency, December 10, 2008Steve Strasser is Chairman and CEO of Power Efficiency (OTCBB:PEFF), a technology company focused on developing energy efficiency solutions for electronic motors for industrial and appliance applications. Aspire: What surprised you about the renewable energy/clean tech markets in 2008? Were there any significant developments (political, technological, consumer-driven and/or industry-driven) that occurred which you werenrsquo;t anticipating? Please briefly explain.nbsp;nbsp; Strasser: I was surprised by the renewal of the tax credits. In addition, there we have a new administration and leadership in Congress that will make a greater effort to promote this industry, and energy efficiency in particular.nbsp;nbsp; What I am seeing with energy efficiency is that people and businesses have always been very interested in energy efficiency but the problem from an economic standpoint for businesses, as new technologies ...