Chicago, IL – August 28, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBV), BB&T Corp. (BBT), Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) and AMR Corp. (AMR).

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Here are highlights from Thursday’s Analyst Blog:

Thrifts Defy Troubles

Thrifts are required to have at least 65% of their loans as mortgages and other consumer loans, which makes them particularly vulnerable to the housing downturn. But banks have no such compulsion. However, the banking industry is likely to face further special assessments as more institutions fail during the recession.

The OTS supervised 794 thrifts as well as 459 holding company enterprises at the end of the quarter. The agency said that three thrifts had failed during the second quarter.

A total of 81 federally insured banks have failed so far this year. This includes several large thrifts. The failure of Seattle-based Washington Mutual Inc. last year was the biggest US bank failure ever. Washington Mutual, that involved thrifts, was acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM).

Among the others, recently, Guaranty Bank failed and was sold to BBVA Compass, the US arm of Spain’s second-largest bank Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBV). The banking operations of Colonial were sold to BB&T Corp. (BBT).

HP Gets American Airlines Deal

Good news continues for Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ). After delivering modest third quarter results, the company won a deal with American Airlines parent AMR Corp. (AMR). According to the agreement, Hewlett-Packard will be developing a system for AMR, which will take care of pricing, reservations, flight information and check-in.

We believe this will improve the overall travel experience of American Airlines customers. This will specifically help the company in efficient baggage transfer, which will ultimately lead to lesser lost baggage, passengers getting updated information about cancelled or rescheduled flights and user-friendly check in process. The process may take around 4 to 5 years to set up. The pricing of the deal was not declared.

We believe that if Hewlett-Packard can execute this project efficiently, this experience will take the company a long way in winning similar projects from other major players in the airlines industry. Although the airlines industry is going through the doldrums as a result of the global economic downturn, every other carrier is looking to streamline their operations and we believe Hewlett-Packard can cater to that need.

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Although results for the quarter showed some improvement, overall performance of the industry remained uneven. Troubled assets at thrifts accounted for 3.52% of the industry's assets, up from 3.35% in the previous quarter. However, total value of troubled assets fell to $38.6 billion from $41 billion in the earlier quarter.

"Problem thrifts" on the agency's list are those which have significantly low capital reserves and other deficiencies. Their number rose to 40 from 31 sequentially and from 17 in the year-ago quarter.

According to the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS), the uneven financial picture reflects the nation's weak job market and a generally depressed economic environment. Thrifts continued to set aside large amounts of money to protect against deteriorating loans. Though loan loss provisions declined slightly to $4.7 billion during the second quarter, it was the sixth-highest on record. We expect provisions to remain elevated until the housing and job markets stabilize.

New mortgage loans by thrifts fell sharply to $70.5 billion from $96.1 billion in the prior quarter and $128.3 billion in the prior-year period.

Thrifts are required to have at least 65% of their loans as mortgages and other consumer loans, which makes them particularly vulnerable to the housing downturn. But banks have no such compulsion. However, the banking industry is likely to face further special assessments as more institutions fail during the recession.

The OTS supervised 794 thrifts as well as 459 holding company enterprises at the end of the quarter. The agency said that three thrifts had failed during the second quarter.

A total of 81 federally insured banks have failed so far this year. This includes several large thrifts. The failure of Seattle-based Washington Mutual Inc. last year was the biggest US bank failure ever. Washington Mutual, that involved thrifts, was acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM).

Among the others, recently, Guaranty Bank failed and was sold to BBVA Compass, the US arm of Spain’s second-largest bank Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBV). The banking operations of Colonial were sold to BB&T Corp. (BBT).

This from Money Morning:

When federal banking regulators last week seized the Houston-based Franklin Bank SSB (FBTX), it became the 18th bank failure this year amid the ongoing credit crisis. With total assets of $5.1 billion and total deposits of $3.7 billion, Franklin wasn’t the largest bank failure this year – that honor belongs to IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (OTC: IDMCQ), which had more than $30 billion in estimated assets when it was seized by U.S. banking regulators in…

This from Money Morning:

When federal banking regulators last week seized the Houston-based Franklin Bank SSB (FBTX), it became the 18th bank failure this year amid the ongoing credit crisis. With total assets of $5.1 billion and total deposits of $3.7 billion, Franklin wasn’t the largest bank failure this year – that honor belongs to IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (OTC: IDMCQ), which had more than $30 billion in estimated assets when it was seized by U.S. banking regulators in…

This from Money Morning:

While the U.S. government’s plan to invest $250 billion into U.S. financial institutions has been billed as a strategy that will bolster the health of the banking system and also jump-start lending, the recapitalization plan is likely to have a secondary effect – one that whipsawed U.S. taxpayers likely won’t be…

“Once the global economy emerges from the current financial crisis, which it will, the countries that do well on our index are those that are best prepared to bounce back and perform well in the longer term,” Jennifer Blanke, director of the WEF’s global competitiveness network told The Financial Times.

And the United States is at the top. That’s the good news.

The bad news is that the safety of U.S. banks dropped to 40th this…

India's financial system is evidently showing signs of strain as the impact of both local policy tightening and the global credit crunch steadily take hold. The rate at which Indian banks lend to each other climbed to an 18-month high of 15.125 percent on Sept. 19, following the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings and the U.S. government takeover of American International Group. As a result the Indian finance ministry responded by allowing companies building roads, ports, utilities and other infrastructure projects to borrow more overseas - thus giving them access to cheaper funds - while the central bank announced measures to boost cash in India's financial system.

Indian banks have borrowed an average 642.8 billion rupees from the central bank in the last two weeks, more than five times the average 113 billion rupees in the previous fortnight, further indicating a shortage of funds in the banking system.

Foreign Exchange Reserves Rise Slightly

India’s foreign-exchange reserves rose by the most in five months in the week ended September 19, according to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India. The rise has surprised many observers, but it should be borne in mind that it coincided with the rise in the dollar against a number of other currencies (and in particular the euro, which the RBI also holds in reserves) on the back of the euphoria about the possible bailout of the US financial system.

Total foreign-exchange reserves rose by $2.51 billion to $292 billion in the week ended Sept 19, while foreign-currency assets - which form the lions share of the reserves -climbed $2.5 billion to $282.8 billion during the week. As we can see from the chart (below) the value of foreign exchange reserves has stabilised since mid-August, so the rot, it would seem, has definitely stopped. I think it is significant that we saw a positive initial response across the key emerging markets to the proposed US bailout, and while we are now seeing considerable volatility as people become nervous about whether it will, finally, arrive.I think when the package is introduced the key emerging market economies will be the principal beneficiaries, as the so called "risk appetite" will bounce back, especially given that the aftermath of the package will be a lower growth period in the OECD economies as the cost of the bailout has to be assimilated.




Even given the recent decline, it is important to bear in mind that India's foreign-exchange reserves, including overseas currencies, gold and special drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund, have increased $56.1 billion in the past year.

Money Supply Continues To Grow

Meanwhile, money supply in India grew year on year by 21 % in the two weeks ended Sept. 12, same rate as in the previous fortnight, according to data from the RBI. M3 - which largely consists of currency in public circulation, bank deposits and money invested in other saving plans, stood at Rs 42,26,143 crore as on September 12.

M3 has been rising at an average rate of 21% since the current fiscal year began on April 1, and has been consistently above the central bank’s target of 16.5% to 17% for the fiscal year ending March. At the same time, total bank loans rose by Rs 32,914 crore in the two weeks ended Sept 12, the biggest fortnightly increase since March. Outstanding bank credit was up by 26.1% year on year and reached Rs 24, 91,248 crore. Food credit was up by Rs 847 crore to Rs 45,190 crore, while non-food credit increased by Rs 32,067 crore to Rs24,46,058 crore. Total bank deposits rose by 22.5%, or Rs 6, 25,282 crore, in the same period to Rs reach 34, 05,377 crore.


The Rupee Weakens Again


The rupee has declined almost 17 percent so far this year and is the second-worst performer among the ten most-active Asian currencies excluding the yen. This week it declined for the seventh consecutive week, the longest run in more than 2 1/2 years. The rupee was down 5.6 percent in September, and is thus headed for its worst month since the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

Foreign investors were net sellers of Indian stocks for a fifth straight month in September, and have offloaded $9 billion so far this year, according to data from the Securities & Exchange Board of India. They bought a record $17.2 billion in stocks last year. Indian stocks fell, with the benchmark posting its biggest weekly drop in six months, after talks on a U.S. credit market rescue plan stalled and Washington Mutual Inc. became the biggest bank failure in American history.



The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, fell 445, or 3.3 percent, to 13,102.18. The index had its biggest weekly drop since the week ended March 7. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange slid 125.30, or 3.1 percent, to 3,985.25. The BSE 200 Index declined 3.2 percent to 1,590.58. Nifty futures for October delivery fell 3.9 percent to 3,995.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures slid 1.7 percent when negotiations on a $700 billion bailout plan for U.S. credit markets were thrown into doubt by a group of House Republicans who said the plan drawn up by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson wouldn't work.

The decline in Indian stocks is more a reflection of global sentiment towards emerging market stocks and bonds than it is an indicator of any specific local issue. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of stocks has been falling since last May - as can be seen in the chart below - and dropped 1.74% percent on Friday to 823.694, its lowest level since Sept. 15. The index is now down 13.6% so far this month, and 33.87% so far this year. But if you look carefully you can see that it peaked up again after 20th September, as speculation increased that there would be a major bailout of the US banking and insurance sector. This bounce back unwound towards the end of last week, as uncertainty grew about the arrival of the package.


A similar picture can be seen of the JPMorgan EMBI+ emerging bonds index (see below), which has been down significantly since the end of August. Since the US package seems now about to be approved for the US congress, as a result we should see sentiment improve significantly, and India may well be one of the principal beneficiaries of this change in sentiment. The coming weeks should clear all this up quite quickly.

The unprecedented event that drove much of todayÂ’s gain was a report that the federal government may create an entity that will take over banks' bad debt. The entity would be similar to the Resolution Trust Corp. that was established during the savings and loan debacle of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Earlier today, investors awoke to the news of the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank all agreeing to infuse as much as $180 billion into the financial structure in order to help ease the calamities being experienced by financial markets worldwide.

ThursdayÂ’s Dow closed at 11,019.69 after the 410-point, or 3.86%, gain. The Standard & Poor's 500 index jumped 50.01 points, or 4.32%, to 1,206.60. The Nasdaq composite index picked up 100.25 points, or 4.78%, ending the session at 2,199.10.

TodayÂ’s other market moving news included Morgan Stanley (MS) talking to Wachovia (WB) about a possible merger and Washington Mutual Inc.(WM) putting itself on the auction block.

The price of oil moved up again after yesterdayÂ’s climb. Oil for October delivery increased 72 cents, settling at $97.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The advance occurred on a weaker dollar and news of Nigerian militants increasing their attacks on oil companies, causing supply disruption concerns.

Gold also staged another move forward after yesterdayÂ’s record jump. The precious metal surged $50.20 today to $900.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Focus List

Our Focus List participated in todayÂ’s rally by gaining 2.66% for the day.

Perrigo Co. (PRGO) continued its bullish run, ascending 7.33% Thursday after WednesdayÂ’s 2.93% gain and a 3.60% increase on Tuesday. There were no major developments today. However, yesterday the company was the subject of an analyst upgrade.

PRGO also recently announced that it acquired drug and nutritional products maker JB Laboratories for about $44 million in cash. PRGO mentioned that the acquisition is expected to add more than $70 million of annual sales.

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) was another big Focus List gainer, jumping 7.35% for the day. Analysts boosted earnings estimates for this year and next by a penny over the past week. Year 2008 forecasts are at $7.72 per share, 2009 projections are at $8.39.

Another upward estimate revision that recently took place was the increase that Wabtec (WAB) saw for year 2009. Current earnings expectations of $3.08 per share are above last weekÂ’s $3.04.
"PRGO" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? Sell? Hold?
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