Russia’s central bank this week lowered its main interest rates for the seventh time since April 24 - lowering the refinancing rate a further quarter percentage point. The decision came hard on the heels of the announcement that the Russian economy suffered a record economic contraction in the second three months of the year and refelect the growing recognition that the country now faces a painfully slow recovery. Just how painful things might become will form the subject matter of this report.br /br /strongRisks Rising On All Frontsbr //strongbr /Bank Rossii cut the refinancing rate to 10.5 percent from 10.75 percent (following a quarter point reduction on August 10), and lowered the repurchase rate charged on central bank loans to 9.5 percent from 9.75 percent, effective from tomorrow. The bank has now cut the rates six times since April 24. Nonetheless Russia’s benchmark refinancing rate is still the second-highest in ...

Norilsk Nickel shareholders have voted to invite a state representative, Vasily Titov, deputy chairman of state-run VTB Group, to their board, to give the company additional support during the crisis.  Russian Railways chief Vladimir Yakunin has recommended the government consider nationalization of crisis-hit industries to alleviate social tensions.  Four minority shareholders of High River Gold Mines have asked the company to reject Severstal's offer of 19 US cents per share, saying that the Russian steelmaker should raise the bid fivefold.  GAZ Group, the main employer in the Nizhny Novgorod region, will make around 6,500 people from its main production site redundant.  A high-ranking executive at ratings agency Fitch says that Russian banks will need $20 billion to $80 billion in extra capital this year.  The Magna-Opel deal is said to be in jeopardy as GM Europe ...

Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Shatalov says there will be no tax raises on individual incomes during the crisis, but the government plans to introduce an increase on gas extraction tax for businesses.  The Moscow Times looks the construction firms of Pikalyovo whose problems were not resolved by Putin's visit.  As manufacturing shrunk in May, wage arrears grew by 10.8%.   Rusal has managed to negotiate a much more favorable rate in restructuring its $7.4 billion debt to foreign banks than other companies.  Novolipetsk Steel controller Vladimir Lisin has bought the radio station Business FM.  The Federal Anti-Monopoly Service has canceled $38.5 million worth of contracts for state orders because of typographical issues.   The Wall Street Journal reports on the opening of the first Carrefour in Russia. Apparently the French food giant has suspended ...

By Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Russia's foreign-exchange reserves have been now been declining very rapidly since mid August, and as the money goes so does the faith that the large stock of reserves the country built up during the boom times would be sufficient to see them through any downturn in energy prices. As the money leaves, so it seems does the decade of economic growth and stability which they symbolised. Indeed so rapid has been the decline that Russia's international reserves, which are the third-biggest after those of China and Japan, have now fallen $161 billion, or 27% percent, since 8 August last, and decreased by $17.9 billion to $437 billion in the week to 5 December. Investors have now pulled $211 billion out of the country since August, according to estimates by BNP Paribas.br /br /br /pa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUbQptNe4tI/AAAAAAAALyE/K0xlBOy3AlA/s1600-h/russia+GDP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5280137028067844818" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: ...

Russia's long-term sovereign credit rating outlook was lowered yesterday (Thursday) - to negative - by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services due to their assessment that the cost of the government's "bank rescue operation'' may increase. S&P cut their outlook from stable, a move which reflects the increased probability of a downgrade at some point in the future. Russia has committed as much as 15 percent of gross domestic product in budgetary and reserve funds to maintain banking liquidity, according to calculations made by the rating agency. At the same time S&P affirmed Russia's BBB+ long-term foreign currency and the A- long-term local currency ratings and the short-term ratings of A-2.``We expect Russian corporate and financial sector default rates to increase asdebtors' access to official funds will vary,'' S&P said in the statement.``Other uncertainties remain regarding what the economic policy response will ...

Russia's government plans to lend the country's biggest banks 950 billion rubles ($36 billion) for at least five years in an attempt to unfreeze credit markets, according to a new plan announced by President Dmitry Medvedev this morning. State-run OAO Sberbank and VTB Group, will get 500 billion rubles and 200 billion rubles respectively.Some 450 billion roubles ($17.19 billion) of the 950 billion rouble subordinate loans package for banks will come from one of the National Wealth Funds according to Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Tuesday. Russia's two oil wealth funds totalled $189.7 billion as of Oct. 1.The Russian authorities, who are currently grappling with the worst financial crisis since the government's debt default in 1998, have already pledged more than $150 billion for banks and companies through loans and tax benefits (see details in this post here). Stocks rose ...

by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaWell the action in Russia this week has moved on slightly, and the damage has started to spread from pressure on the domestic stock market (accompanied by capital flight) to the real economy - via a very rapid tightening in credit conditions for Russian domestic users. We are also seeing a rapid slowdown in Russian manufacturing industry as internal demand slows while the inflation-driven decline in cost competitiveness continues to make imported products (where available) an attractive alternative to the home produced variant.Emerging-market bonds have been generally falling this week as the U.S. Senate's approval of a $700 billion bank rescue package did little to revive demand for riskier debt, and Russia has, unsurprisingly, been among the worst affected. The extra yield investors demand to own developing-nation bonds rather than U.S. Treasuries rose 8 basis points yestreday to 4.14 percentage points after widening ...

by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaWell the action in Russia this week has moved on slightly, and the damage has started to spread from pressure on the domestic stock market (accompanied by capital flight) to the real economy - via a very rapid tightening in credit conditions for Russian domestic users. We are also seeing a rapid slowdown in Russian manufacturing industry as internal demand slows while the inflation-driven decline in cost competitiveness continues to make imported products (where available) an attractive alternative to the home produced variant.Emerging-market bonds have been generally falling this week as the U.S. Senate's approval of a $700 billion bank rescue package did little to revive demand for riskier debt, and Russia has, unsurprisingly, been among the worst affected. The extra yield investors demand to own developing-nation bonds rather than U.S. Treasuries rose 8 basis points yestreday to 4.14 percentage points after widening ...

The outlook rating for Russia's banking system was changed today from "stable" to "negative" by Moody's Investors Services. The Banking System Outlook Report (published today) clited slowing asset growth, higher inflation, the slump in equities and funds leaving the country, all of which could result in deteriorating fundamentals for banks, according to the credit rating agency. Moody's thus joins the other two large credit rating agencies - Fitch Ratings and Standard and Poor's in downgrading at least a part of the Russian financial system. Fitch said in a report last week that Russian real estate and construction companies were the most at risk as domestic and international banks curb lending, while Russia's credit outlook was cut to ``stable'' from ``positive'' at Standard & Poor's on Sept. 19. S&P's cited the growing pressure on Russian authorities to spend resources from the National Wealth Fund, undermining the nation's ...

Russian stock exchanges had to halted trading again today (Friday) for the fourth successive day running, but this time the explanation was a rather different one - since stocks rapidly surged higher, following President Medvedev's announcement yesterday that the government was going to inject funds into the purchase of Russian stocks. Exchanges suspended trading after just hours of trading Friday after shares on the benchmark RTS and MICEX indexes shot up by 20 percent and 26.3 percent, respectively. Trading was only temporarily suspended and was expected to resume later today.Stocks bounced back after the government rushed through a series of emergency measures — amounting to some $120 billion worth of relief — in the shape of increased liquidity to the banking sector and share purchases on the domestic markets. In fact Russia's RTS Index, which had previously been the best global stock performer this decade, had turned ...