A Touch Of Certainty In These Uncertain Times
Graham Summers (June 11th, 2008) Writes:
Graham Summers (June 11th, 2008) Writes:
Graham Summers (June 10th, 2008) Writes:
Teri Horton may be the greatest living investor.
You wouldn’t think so to look at her. Horton, a retired truck driver, lives in a trailer furnished and decorated with items she found dumpster diving. She doesn’t own any stocks. She doesn’t even know what a junk bond is. And if you asked her to forecast the Dow, she’d probably tell you to get lost. You see, Horton deals in the most illiquid asset class in the world: fine art. And she got into it by complete accident.
In the mid-90s, Horton was browsing through a thrift store in her hometown of Costa Mesa, California, looking for a gift to cheer up a depressed friend. She came across a massive “ugly” painting. She asked the clerk how much the painting cost. When the clerk responded “$8”, Teri said, “I love my friend, but I don’t love her that much. Couldn’t we do …
Graham Summers (June 9th, 2008) Writes:
In Friday’s essay I warned that stocks were headed for an ugly autumn. Looking at Friday’s action—the S&P 500 fell 3%— it’s possible the trouble is already here.
As I’ve mentioned several times on these pages, the market rally post-Bear Stearns was largely facilitated by phony economic data courtesy of the US government, the Federal Reserve pumping dollars into the system like there’s no tomorrow, and dumb money piling into stocks, thinking the worst is over.
Looking at these trends, as well as the market’s declining volume— a telltale sign of a “sucker’s rally” —I forecast that eventually this web of lies and frauds would come undone and the market would enter another fierce correction. Friday may have marked the beginning of this.
I strongly suggest you take steps to protect your portfolio now, if you haven’t already done so.
The first thing …
Graham Summers (June 6th, 2008) Writes:
Prepare yourself now.
The market is widely referred to as a discounting mechanism. However, its ability to discount anything extends only as far as the collective knowledge of its participants. And to be blunt, the vast majority of today’s investors— professional or otherwise— know little if anything about making money in the market.
With the advent of discount brokerages— E*trade, Ameritrade, etc— in the late ‘90s, a huge wave of novice investors entered the US financial markets. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of US households invested in mutual funds doubled from 25 million to 50 million. This wave of new, uninformed money supported two major trends: the Tech Bubble, and the rise of the financial media.
Regarding the latter, in 1990, stock market developments were relegated to 15 minutes of coverage on major news programs. Only ten years later, there were at …
Graham Summers (June 2nd, 2008) Writes:
