The company reported quarterly net income of RUR22.6 billion ($701.5 million), more than double the net income of RUR11.1 ($345 million) reported in the year-ago period. This significant year-over-year growth was largely attributable to the RUR10.6 billion ($329 million) in foreign exchange gains from a strong ruble versus the US dollar.

VimpelCom’s net operating revenue in the quarter was RUR69.0 billion ($2.1 billion), reflecting 12% and 3.3% increase over the year-ago and the previous quarter, respectively. While sales from its wireless operation came in at RUR58.2 billion ($1.8 billion), the fixed-line business generated revenue of RUR14.6 billion ($453 million). The reported OIBDA of RUR35 billion ($1.1 billion) reflects a year-over-year growth of 8.7%, yielding an OIBDA margin of 50.6%.

The company’s total active cellular subscriber base grew by about 10 million year over year and by 1 million sequentially to 63.7 million at the end of the second quarter. Its broadband subscriber base increased 11.3% sequentially to approximately 1.7 million.

Reviewing operations by territory, revenue from Russia tallied RUR59.1 billion ($1.8 billion), up 11.8% year over year, accounting for more than 85% of VimpelCom’s total sales. Total mobile subscriber base reached 49.97 million (up 17.6% year over year) from 49.35 million in the previous quarter. Broadband subscriber base grew to 1.66 million from 1.5 million sequentially. Russian ARPU (average revenue per user) fell 7.2% year over year but rose 5.2% sequentially to RUR322.5 ($10).

Total operating revenue of RUR10.7 billion ($332 million) in the CIS markets reflects a 16.3% year-over-year growth. Revenue from Kazakhstan (the largest CIS market) registered sales of RUR5.1 billion ($158 million), up 15.6% year over year. Revenue from the other key CIS markets were: RUR1.6 billion ($50 million) in Ukraine (down 2.3% year over year), RUR1.6 billion ($50 million) in Armenia (up 3.7%) and RUR1.7 billion ($53 million) in Uzbekistan (up 37.8%).

During the quarter, VimpelCom had RUR5 billion ($155 million) in capital expenditures. It plans to raise this level in the second half of the year for expanding business operations.

Last month, the company successfully placed ruble bonds worth RUR10 billion ($303 million). Net proceeds from this issue will be used to refinance existing foreign currency denominated debt and finance the ongoing business-expansion initiatives. VimpelCom repaid debt worth $456 million during the second quarter.

VimpelCom remains the second-largest wireless operator in Russia with over 25% market share. Nevertheless, the company has a higher projected growth rate than its Russian peer Mobile Telesystems (MBT) as it continues to demonstrate the ability to succeed in emerging markets on the strength of sustained subscriber growth.

Besides maintaining its strong market position in the rapidly maturing Moscow metropolitan area, VimpleCom has started expanding into incipient markets like Vietnam and Cambodia. The company completed the commercial launch of its cellular operation in Cambodia in May under the Beeline brand and plans to cover more than two-third of the country’s population by the end of 2009.

Recently, VimpelCom launched commercial mobile operation in Vietnam in three major provinces of the country. It plans to reach over 40 provinces and 41 million people by the end of 2009, translating into a 48% penetration of the country’s population. The relatively lower mobile penetration rates in these markets offer attractive growth opportunity for the company.

We expect acquisitions and expansions in emerging markets to enhance prospects in the wireless space and foster much of the company’s growth going forward.

On a geographic basis, revenue rose 7% year over year in Russia, 4% in Uzbekistan, 35% in Turkmenistan and 3% in Armenia, while sales declined 8% in Ukraine.

Mobile TeleSystems added approximately 2.8 million customers in the quarter (up sequentially), primarily driven by a 2.3 million net subscriber growth in Russia. This was marginally offset by 155,000 subscriber losses in Ukraine. At the end of the second quarter, the company served approximately 99.5 million subscribers (67.4 million in Russia), up 9.4% year over year.

In Russia, quarterly churn (customer switch) fell to 6.9% sequentially, while increasing on a year-over-year basis. Russian ARPU (average revenue per user) climbed sequentially while decreasing from the year-ago quarter. Churn in Ukraine declined both sequentially and on a year-over-year basis but rose in Uzbekistan. ARPU in Ukraine grew sequentially despite falling from the year-earlier period.

Mobile TeleSystems maintained its leadership in most markets during the quarter. On a sequential basis, its market share in Russia and Armenia remained stable at 34% and 81%, respectively. The company gained market share in Ukraine (up 1% to 33%) while losing in Uzbekistan (down 1% to 45%) and Turkmenistan (down 2% to 85%).

During the first half of 2009, the company generated free cash flow of $109.2 million, down significantly from the $1 billion registered a year ago, due to higher capital expenditure. Mobile TeleSystems exited the quarter with approximately $1.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $4.6 billion in total debt.

Mobile TeleSystems is expanding its 3G network footprint through commercial service launches in selected cities of Russia and surrounding countries. It has launched 3G services in the three biggest Armenian cities and recently deployed the first phase of its 3G network in Moscow.

The company plans to spend up to $1.6 billion for upgrading 3G networks in Russia through 2011 to provide high-speed data transfer services to its customers. In order to meet the financing requirements associated with its aggressive network rollout plan, Mobile TeleSystems has secured a loan of €413 million ($578.2 million) from three international lenders. It expects to earn an additional $2.5 billion in sales from 3G services by 2011, including $2 billion from Russia alone.

Moreover, the company is aggressively pursuing acquisitions and strategic partnerships to strengthen its “mono-brand" mobile retail network while implementing cost optimization programs to lower operating expenses. To strengthen its retail distribution network, Mobile TeleSystems bought Russia-based retail chains Eldorado and Telefon.Ru. The mono-brand retail initiative is expected to provide the company with a competitive edge over rival VimpelCom (VIP), which has acquired approximately 50% of the multi-brand mobile retailer Euroset.

While we see expansion of the 3G network as a key growth driver, related costs to support network deployments and promotional initiatives may tighten free cash flow and margins in 2009. Moreover, increasing competition, foreign exchange exposure, regulatory challenges and market risk in Russia warrant a cautious view on the stock.

"The Kazakh government is ready to step in,'' Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Karim Masimov said this morning in a telephone interview with Bloomberg "The Kazakh banking system with the support of the government and central bank will fulfill all obligations to international investors.....We have our own specific plan to survive without any external support....I don't think we need support from the International Monetary Fund or overseas.''

Ranked as the ninth largest country in the world by size, it is also the world's largest landlocked country, with a territory of some 2,727,300 km² (which is greater than the whole of Western Europe). It is bordered by Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and China. On the other hand, and despite its enormous size, Kazakhstan has a comparatively small population. No one actually has an exact idea of the actual size of the Kazakhstan population (not to mention the thorny issue of just how many foreign migrants live and work there), but the US Census Bureau International Database list the current population of Kazakhstan as 16.763 million, while sources drawing their data from the United Nations (like the IMF which I have relied on for the chart below) give a 2008 estimate of 15.135 million. In any event the current population level, after falling in the early 1990s as ethnic Russians left, has now stabilised, and is virtually stationary. This virtually stagnant population constitutes, as we will see, a significant problem for a country with such a massive resource base, and such enormous economic and development potential as Kazakhstan would seem to have.

Record Oil Revenue Boom

Kazakhstan is the biggest energy producer in Central Asia and the country's $100 billion economy has in fact grown at an average of 10 percent a year rate since 2000 (see chart below), in particular as the price of oil has surged. This rapid GDP growth produced a rapid increase in per capita income as well as national creditworthiness, and these in turn sparked in their wake a substantial construction boom. Indeed it has precisely been the bursting of this boom in the autumn of 2007 - on the back of the seize-up in global wholesale money markets which followed August's financial turmoil in the USA - which lies at the heart of Kazakhstan's current growth slowdown. Kazakhstan's economy expanded at a 'mere' 5.3 percent rate in the first quarter of 2008, half the pace achieved in the same period a year earlier, following a dramatic curtailment in bank lending, and if Kazakhstan is still able, despite all the problems we will see below, to maintain some sort of growth momentum at this point it is undoubtedly the result of the oil and other commodity resources which the country has at its disposal, and indeed as part of its initial response to the present crisis the country increased crude production by an annual 6.3 percent in the first four months of the year, according to official government data.




Now one of the most curious details about the present slowdown in Kazakhstan, has been the fact that at the very same time as the economy started to lose velocity the central bank found itself busy struggling to curb an inflation rate which was steadily shooting onwards and upwards towards the outer stratosphere, as revenue from record oil prices pushed up domestic demand, and the resulting construction and consumption boom drove up wages far beyond normal "productivity-gain" rates of increase (remember, there are not THAT many people in the country, and much of the population is rural and unskilled in relation to the needs of a modern technological and services economy). In fact inflation hit year-on-year rates of increase approaching 20% in the autumn of last year (see chart below), although it had dropped by to an annual 18.2% by September.




So, as well as containing the property bust, the Kazakh authorities have also had to conduct an inflation fight (more details below). So far from lowering rates like the US Federal Reserve has been able to do, Karakhstan's central bank was forced to raise the key interest rate to 11 percent in December 2007, at a time when annual inflation was riding at almost 19 percent, the highest for the country in over eight years. The refinancing rate was then maintained at the 11% level until it was finally lowered to 10.5% at the last central bank meeting in July.



Not Just Energy - Vast Resource Potential

The fact that Kazakhstan's industrial output growth has lost a lot of momentum in 2008 as the slowdown in the building industry provoked a slump in cement and other materials production should not take our minds too far away from the fact that the underlying potential in Kazakhstan is enormous. In fact while industrial output growth was reduced to an annual 3.8 percent growth rate in the January-June period, it was at least still growing.

The low point seems to have been hit back in January, when cement production which, not surprisingly, was among the hardest hit sectors, was down 26 percent year on year, the sharpest January fall in five years, as growth in the construction industry stalled, brought to a halt by the fact that the Kazakh banks, who had been struggling to borrow from abroad following the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market, virtually stopped lending to homebuyers and builders.

Copper and rolled-iron output also declined an annual 13 percent in January while output from oil refineries and manufacturing industry decreased an annual 2.9 percent as the problems rolled in. Thus there is evidence of a very sharp shock initially hitting the local economy. On the other hand, since the country is resource rich and the given that first half of 2008 saw a very significant global commodities boom, there were other economic sectors to fall back on, and mining production was up 6 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, bolstered by an increase in natural gas and coal output, which climbed 15 percent and 11 percent respectively. At the same time crude oil production went up by an annual 5.4 percent.

Apart from oil and gas Kazakhstan has a huge array of potential resource reserves just waiting to be tapped. Among these there is copper. London-listed Kazakhmys accounts for the bulk of Kazakh copper output - and this was down 17.5 percent year-on-year in January-April. Industrial output in Karaganda region, home to Kazakhmys and Arcelor Mittal mines and smelters, declined 5.5 percent year-on-year in January-April.

Kazakhmys reported that their first-quarter output fell 9.9 percent on "severe winter weather'' and repairs at its Balkhash smelter. Production of finished copper plates, or cathodes, from the company's ore fell to 75,500 metric tons, from 83,800 tons a year earlier. These drops in output are, of course not entirely associated with the credit crunch, but they do give an idea of the challenging and volatile environment in which the mining and extraction industries work in Kazakhstan. Realistically speaking it seems quite likely that output in these sectors will return to more normal levels during the second-half of 2008, having alreadt rebounding significantly from the low point reached in the first-quarter.

On the other hand industrial output in capital Astana and commercial hub Almaty, where most construction activities are based, was down 13.2 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively, in January-April, and this activity may well take much longer to recover.

Kazakhstan has also had to cut its 2008 oil production forecast to 67.6 million tonnes (1.35 million barrels per day) from a previous estimate of 70 million tonnes citing maintenance works and transport bottlenecks. The country is able to produce a lot of oil, but it does have a large problem getting that oil to the places where people want it. Three major pipeline routes - the Atyrau-Samara and Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) links to Russia, and the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline to China - carry Kazakh crude off towards its end destinations, but none of these are proving sufficient to the demands on them.

"It is impossible to transport crude out of Kazakhstan without some difficulties," Senior Associate Klara Nurgaziyeva from law firm Dewey & LeBoeuf told an oil and gas conference last week in the Kazakh financial capital Almaty.

In a smoke-filled bar in the Kazakh financial capital Almaty, the laughter of Scottish ex-pats is loud and boisterous. More than three thousand miles (5,491 km) separate the Scottish Highlands and the Central Asian steppe, but a mutual interest in oil and gas has created a surprising alliance. Residents estimate that around 400 Scots live in ex-Soviet Kazakhstan, a resource-rich country roughly the size of western Europe.

Most come from Aberdeen, Britain's northeastern oil hub, and they bring with them their technical expertise."We're going to try attract Kazakhs to Aberdeen over the next few years and look at initiatives, and create further investment in Scotland from Kazakhstan," Lord Provost Peter Stephen of the Aberdeen City Council told an energy conference last week in Almaty. He said over 100 companies from in and around Aberdeen are active in Kazakhstan, and the Scottish oil town even has a Kazakh consulate to serve the hundreds of Kazakhs who go to Scotland to train up for the oil business. The Kazakh-British technical university, set up by a group of Scottish universities seven years ago, occupies a grandiose columned building in the centre of leafy Almaty, which housed parliament before the capital was moved to Astana.

Prices for residential property soared 30.2 percent in 2007, reaching a record average mid-year high of 161,300 tenge ($1,338) per square meter, up from 123,900 tenge in 2006, according to the Astana-based state statistics agency. In the financial capital, Almaty, the average price was 345,200 tenge.

The drop in prices from these peaks and the sudden drying up of credit has caused numerous problems for would.be buyers, and Bank TuranAlem, Kazakhstan's second-biggest bank by assets, received $81.2 million last December from the state emergency investment program simply to finance the completion of unfinished construction projects.

The most recent government bailout of the construction sector was announced during the summer - just two weeks before the celebrations of Nazarbayev's 68th birthday and the 10th anniversary of the founding of the new capital Astana on July 6 - following the announcement by a group representing people who had purchased apartments in the unfinished buildings that they were planning a protest march to be held in Astana bang in the middle of the official festivities.

The Industry and Trade Ministry have said that there were 939 residential buildings, with 45,130 apartments pre-paid by homebuyers, under construction as of last January. Minister Edil Mamytbekov said in July that the cases of 4,558 homebuyers in 18 buildings "remain problematic'' because of conduct for which the builders in question had been "charged with crimes.'' The Kazakh Prosecutor General's Office said 123 construction companies that received 104 billion tenge ($865 million) in pre-payments from homebuyers were behind schedule or haven't even begun work on new apartment buildings.

Assets of "careless construction companies,'' including buildings and vehicles, have been seized to compensate lost investments of homebuyers and the government, according to the Prosecutor General's Office. Criminal investigations have been opened into eight companies. A total of 285 companies are building 407 residential projects in Kazakhstan and have received 231 billion tenge in pre-payments from more than 50,000 individuals and companies, prosecutors said. Of 200 ``problem'' projects delayed by at least six months, 110 are located in the capital Astana and 42 in Almaty.

The July rumpus was provoked by the fact that at the start of the summer the Kazakh government had spent only 51 billion tenge to complete stalled residential projects, a fraction of the bailouts promised by Prime Minister Karim Masimov in the autumn of 2007, according to data made public by the Ministry of Industry and Trade on June 23. The government had said on Nov. 14 2007 that it would spend $1 billion by the end of 2007 and another $3 billion in 2008 to "provide economic stability and growth'' by supporting the real estate market and small and medium-sized businesses. Following publication of this data, and some international press coverage, Masimov said that his original emergency investment program was in the process of being expanded, and his government announced plans to spend 17.2 billion tenge to complete residential projects in Astana.

President Nursultan Nazarbayev instructed the state to step in and finish projects, ``which have no source of financing,'' to ``help to reduce social tension,'' according to Edil Mamytbekov, a deputy minister of industry and trade, on June 20. President Nursultan Nazarbayev also said it was necessary to take ``tough measures against careless builders". As a result the Almaty mayors office announced on July 26 that another 46.4 billion tenge had been allocated to support residential projects in Almaty. The state had already invested 22.4 billion tenge and was going to spend the remaining 24 billion tenge by year's end, according to the announcement.

In April, however, the government had announced that the state development holding Kazyna would distribute 59 billion tenge to commercial banks during 2007 to finish 131 buildings in Almaty. Sergei Kuyanov, spokesman for Almaty Mayor Akhmetzhan Yesimov, declined to comment on the discrepancy between the numbers when question by journalists in July.

Whatever the complications of the present situation and the ins-and-outs of putting the construction and banking problems straight, we should not lose sight of the fact that Kazakhstan has, large financial resources which will surely help it weather the current situation. Official foreign currency assets totaled $46 billion in early June, comprising NBK reserves of $21 billion and oil fund (NFRK) assets of $25 billion. Commercial banks also have foreign assets of which about $3.5 billion are thought to be liquid. Total foreign assets broadly match foreign liabilities when the intracompany debt of the oil sector is excluded, while liquid foreign currency assets comfortably cover potential short-term foreign currency drains.


Favourable Demographics But Migrants Needed, And With Them Modern Citizenship Rights


The chart you will find below is known as a “heat chart”. It depicts the ongoing changes in Kazakhstan's age structure. Each dot represents the number of people in any given age group at any given point in time. A dark red dot represents the largest concentration of people, by age, in a particular year while deep blue dots show the lowest concentrations. A single dark red dot is the equivalent of almost 406,000 people while each deep blue dot represents nearly 23,000 people.


In the upper left-hand corner of the chart the bright reds and yellow areas depicts the population boom that started in the mid 1970s and lasted until the late 1990s. The remnants of that boom extend downward from left to right across the chart. The band also narrows as this population segment ages. This is simply a reflection of the reduction in the total numbers in the population bulge cohorts as out-migration has taken its toll.

Many ethnic Germans and Russians, for example, left Kazakhstan during the years following the end of the Cold War. In the lower left-hand side of the chart there is a preponderance of dark blue dots, indicating a relatively small number of people over the age of 60 years. Over time these dark blue dots are replaced by light blues and greens, a pattern reflecting a gradual but steady increase in the number of elderly people.

The strong budget position in Kazakhstan has provided scope for the government to use fiscal policy to support the economy as growth has slowed. We believe that the increase in spending in the recent supplementary budget is appropriate, and that the automatic fiscal stabilizers should be allowed to work, with any revenue shortfalls due to a weakening economy being accommodated in the near future rather than offset with expenditure cuts to meet budget targets. Going forward, the government's recently announced three-year budget plan maps out a transparent path for fiscal policy over the medium-term. We believe, however, that it is important that the government not commit to further large increases in public sector wages and pensions in future years given uncertainties about budget revenues—particularly from the oil sector—and the stage of the macroeconomic cycle in two or three years time.

Kazakhstan has large financial resources to help it weather the current situation, and medium-term economic prospects remain favorable. Official foreign currency assets, comprising central bank (NBK) reserves and oil fund (NFRK) assets, reached $48 billion at end-September, well above the mid-2007 level. The current account balance has strengthened significantly this year, and oil production is set to increase substantially in the years ahead.

As at the time of the Article IV consultation discussions in April, we believe that in the short-term policies should remain focused on managing risks to the outlook and setting the stage for the resumption of strong and sustained growth. Since our last visit, the authorities have continued to skillfully handle the difficulties the economy has faced, and we welcome the policy steps that are being taken in the monetary, fiscal, and supervisory areas to strengthen the resilience of the Kazakhstani economy. Nevertheless, considerable challenges remain, and these have been heightened by the renewed bout of global financial market volatility.

The Asian Development Bank, in which China plays a leading role, has extended a $40 million loan at the lowest possible rate to Georgia. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization - which includes China, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan as well as Russia - refused to countenance Russia's recognition of two breakaway regions of Georgia. The rebuff of Putin is all the more striking because - at least from Putin's perspective - the central purpose of this group was to form an eastern counterweight to NATO. China and the Central Asian states may share the Kremlin's resentment of American dominance in the world, but they are not so eager to construct a multipolar world that they will act against their national interests.

The management’s outlook for 2008 is also encouraging, with a projected annual sales growth of 25% while margins are expected to remain healthy with a 50% target. The stock has also reacted favorably to the recent $450 million share repurchase plan. While we view the expansion of 3G services as a key driver, larger expenditures to support network expansion and promotional initiatives may potentially tighten margins for the remainder of 2008.

Additionally, increasing competition, ongoing political uncertainty, regulatory challenges and market risk in Russia warrant a more cautious view on the stock. Therefore, we maintain our Hold recommendation.

MBT’s shares are trading at a discount to the S&P 500 and to its nearest rival Vimpel-Communications (VIP), on most valuation metrics, even though its projected earnings growth over the next five years is well above average. Part of the reason is the political/legal risk that is more conspicuous for Russian-based companies.

As a result, MBT’s share price, historically, has been quite volatile and fluctuates with the overall Russian stock market conditions, sometimes uncorrelated to changes in the company’s fundamentals. Also, MBT’s valuation was recently impacted by geo-political risk in Russia due to unstable political/economic conditions caused by conflicts with Georgia.

However, the stock reacted favorably to the recently announced $450 million share repurchase program. We set a target price of $70 based on a 2008 multiple of 5.5x EV/EBITDA levels considering conservative growth levels.

Anindya Barman contributed to the report.

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