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Obama Stimulus and January Effect, this Week’s Top Stories

Contrarian Profits (January 5th, 2009) Writes:

President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team is reportedly putting the finishing touches on an economic recovery plan that could run from $675 billion to $1 trillion, though many experts believe the program will most like range between $700 billion and $800 billion.

Briefings for top congressional Democrats were to start either over the weekend or today (Monday), a senior transition-team official told The Associated Press late last week. President-elect Obama is slated to meet today with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., in a Democratic strategy session that is likely to focus on the economic recovery package.

It’s time to look forward, not back. The 111th Congress meets tomorrow (Tuesday), and a comprehensive economic stimulus package is at the top of its agenda.  Hopefully, the lawmakers can put partisan bickering aside (fat chance) and have a bill in place for President-elect Barack

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Alcoa Inc, Amazon.com Inc., Bank, Barack Obama, Bernard Madoff;, California, Citigroup Inc, Congress, contrarian profits, DA Davidson, Dow 30, Dow Jones, energy markets, Energy Prices, fed-funds, Federal Reserve System, Federated Investors;, Fred Dickson, General Motors Corp, GMAC LLC;, Gross Domestic Product, Group AG;, Harry Reid, Institute For Supply Management, International Council of Shopping Centers;, J.C. Penney Co. Inc., Japan, JP Morgan Chase, Kohl's Corp.;, Market Commentary, MasterCard Inc., Middle East, Nancy Pelosi, Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite, Nevada, New Year's Day, Nikkei 225, Obama administration, Oil Prices, Phil Orlando;, retail, retail-land;, Russell 2000, Russia, S&P, Sp 500, Target Corp, The Associated Press, The Boeing Co., the Post, the Washington Post, Trade Group, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, U.S. Treasury Department, Ukraine, United States, Us Federal Reserve, USD, Wal Mart Stores Inc

U.S. Economy in 2009, Pain Will Precede the Promise

Shah Gilani (December 29th, 2008) Writes:

If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right - and I have every reason to believe that he will - then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American companies will be

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American International Group Inc., Anthony Karydakis;, Bank Failures, bank loans, bank of america corp, bank of england, Barack Obama, Brands Inc., Central Banks, contrarian profits, Covered JP Morgan Chase & Co.;, Deutsche Bank Ag, direct-to-bank capital injections;, European Central Bank, Fannie Mae, Fdic, fed-funds, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Federal Reserve System, finance, Fortune, Freddie Mac, Gdp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Hilton Hotels Corp;, J.C. Penny Co. Inc.;, JP Morgan Chase, JPMorgan Asset Management;, Kohl's Corp.;, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, London, mark-to-market accounting, Market Commentary, Merrill Lynch, Moody's Investors Service, Morgan Stanley, National Bureau of Economic Research, New Year's Day, new york fed, New York University's Stern School of Business, Nordstrom Group;, Oil, political solution;, Real Estate, real estate collapse;, real estate cycle, Real Estate Prices, real estate realm;, Retail Sales, Retail Sector, Starwood Hotels, Stern School;, Target Corp, The Bear Stearns Cos., The Blackstone Group LP, The Gap Inc., The Neiman Marcus Group Inc;, The Wall Street Journal, Timothy Geithner;, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics;, U.S. Bureau;, U.S. Treasury Department, United States, US Commerce Department, Us Federal Reserve, Us Treasury, USD, Wal Mart Stores Inc

GoldDrivers 2009 – Extraordinary Bullish Outlook for Gold

Alex Stanczyk (December 24th, 2008) Writes:

GoldDrivers 2009 – Extraordinary Bullish Outlook for Gold

By: Eric Hommelberg ldSeek.com

Dollar topping out Physical demand skyrocketing Supply chain shutting down COMEX Gold Manipulation exposed Gold shares on the move again

It sure has been a brutal year for gold and its shares and many may wonder if the $1030 top clocked in March 2008 marked the top for the gold bull market that started in April 2001. Despite the fact that many analysts want you to believe that gold has failed to act as a

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Absolute Return Service;, Alex Stanczyk, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, average retail investor;, Bank, Bank of Montreal;, Bart Chilton;, Bear Stearns, Beijing, Bern, bernanke, Bill Murphy, Bo Nielsen;, business newspaper, central bank, Central Banks, CFTC, Charlie Morris;, China, China Investment Corp, Christmas, Citigroup, Dan Norcini, Depression, Don Coxe, Dorothy Kosich;, Dow Jones, Erhard Oberle;, Eric Hommelberg;, Europe, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve System, finance ministry, France, Frank Veneroso;, Gao Xiqing;, Gerhard Lob;, Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss;, Gold Markets, gold mining costs;, Guangzhou, Gulf News;, Hong Kong, Hsbc, India, Indonesia, investor search;, Japan, Jim Rogers, jim sinclair, Jim Sinclair etc;, John Williams, John Williams Shadowstats;, JP-Morgan, Jpmorgan, Kim-Mai Cutler;, Lehman Brothers, London, metal, Middle East, New York, Nikkei, precious metal, printing press, reckless printing;, retail investment demand;, retail market, Retail Sales, Sami Al Mohna;, Saudi Arabia, Securities And Exchange Commission, SGD, Sp 500, State Street, Switzerland, the Guangzhou Daily;, Tim Wood, U.S. Treasury Department, United States, Us Government, Us Treasury, USD, wall street, Washington, weekly web cast;, world gold council, www.golddrivers.com;, yellow metal, Zimbabwe

Banks That Got $188 Billion in Bailout Money This Year Paid Out $1.6 Billion to Top Execs Last Year

Contrarian Profits (December 23rd, 2008) Writes:

The 116 banks that are receiving billions in taxpayer-provided bailout money this year actually paid out $1.6 billion in compensation and benefits to their top executives last year – even though the results at some of these institutions were so poor that they would soon have to turn to Washington for a government-engineered rescue.

The $1.6 billion was paid out to nearly 600 executives at the 116 banks that have so far accepted federal money to bolster their financial foundations, The Associated Press concluded after a review of U.S. securities filings. In addition to salary, the compensation included bonuses paid in both cash and stock. The benefits reaped by top executives included the use of company jets for personal purposes, personal chauffeurs, home-security services, country-club memberships and professional-wealth-management services, the news service said.

U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., a longtime critic of the fat pay packages given to U.S. executives, said

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Banks That Got $188 Billion in Bailout Money This Year Paid Out $1.6 Billion to Top Execs Last Year

William Patalon (December 23rd, 2008) Writes:
The 116 banks that are receiving billions in taxpayer-provided bailout money this year actually paid out $1.6 billion in compensation and benefits to their top executives last year – even though the results at some of these institutions were so poor that they would soon have to turn to Washington for a government-engineered rescue. The $1.6 billion was paid out to nearly 600 executives at the 116 banks that have so far accepted federal money to bolster their financial foundations, The Associated Press concluded after a review of U.S. securities filings. In addition to salary, the compensation included bonuses paid in both cash and stock. The benefits reaped by top executives included the use of company jets for personal purposes, personal chauffeurs, home-security services, country-club memberships and professional-wealth-management services, the news service said. U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., a longtime critic ...

Fed Slashes Interest Rates, but Now What?

Contrarian Profits (December 17th, 2008) Writes:

As expected, U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers slashed a benchmark interest rate yesterday (Tuesday). But they cut it by a bigger-than-expected amount, and did so in an unconventional manner.

Instead of establishing a new, specific primary interest rate, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted for a target range – 0.0% to 0.25% – a record low. Before yesterday’s cut, the Federal Funds target rate stood at 1.0%.

Instead of addressing the reason for its peculiar target range, the Federal Reserve opted for canned doomsday language that could have appeared verbatim in any of its previous rate cut announcements: It hasn’t been good. It doesn’t look good. And we’re trying to fix it.

Most cryptically, the FOMC said it “will employ all available tools” to promote economic growth and price stability. But those objectives could take some time to achieve.

“The committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low

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Fed Policymakers to Cut Rates Today … But Does Anyone Really Care?

Contrarian Profits (December 16th, 2008) Writes:

With the economy in a tailspin, the U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers will today (Tuesday) almost certainly cut the benchmark Federal Funds rate from its current 1.0% to 0.5%.

So the question no longer seems to be whether the Fed will ease, but whether the move will make any difference.

The Fed has been hamstrung by a credit-market double-whammy: borrowers who are in limbo due to fears of soaring unemployment, and banks that have turned off the lending spigot. Even so, a U.S. economy facing its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression demands the central bank take decisive action.

That has led to a strong undercurrent of opinion among analysts that the Fed will pursue other measures to spark a moribund U.S. economy.

“We look for the accompanying statement to highlight that the main nexus of policy in the coming months will be quantitative easing operations,

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Fed May Cut Rates Again as Policymakers Meet

Contrarian Profits (December 15th, 2008) Writes:

After U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers meet today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday), most experts expect a half a percentage point cut in the benchmark Federal Funds Rate – which is already 1.0%.

That doesn’t leave members of the central bank’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) much room to maneuver. Still, the policymakers may have more ammunition in their arsenal and the statement that accompanies the rate decision at the end of the two-day session could shed some insight on the “creative” actions the Fed could consider in addition to rate cuts (For instance, the central bank could extend the new investment firm discount window, offer additional loan guarantees, or utilize any number of other tools).

And the Fed may well have to use those other tools. As Japan’s “Lost Decade” demonstrated, “zero” interest rates won’t necessarily jump-start an economy – especially when interest

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3M Corp.;, Algeria, bank of america corp, Barack Obama, Ben S, Ben S. Bernanke, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC;, Bernard Madoff;, bush administration, car czar;, central bank, Chakib Khelil, contrarian profits, Depression, Dow 30, Dow Chemical Co, Dow Jones, Duke University, energy analysts;, energy information administration, Enron, European Union, fed-funds, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve System, FedEx Corp., Ford Motor Co, Gas Prices, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Gross Domestic Product, Japan, John A. Thain, John J. Mack, Market Commentary, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, NASDAQ Stock Market Inc., Oil, Oil Prices, oil supplies, Oil Trading, Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Retail Sales, Russell 2000, Senate, Sony Corp, Sp 500, U.S. House, U.S. Treasury Department, Us Federal Reserve, USD, Wall Street Journal

Fed May Cut Rates Again as Policymakers Meet

William Patalon (December 15th, 2008) Writes:
After U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers meet today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday), most experts expect a half a percentage point cut in the benchmark Federal Funds Rate – which is already 1.0%. That doesn’t leave members of the central bank’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) much room to maneuver. Still, the policymakers may have more ammunition in their arsenal and the statement that accompanies the rate decision at the end of the two-day session could shed some insight on the “creative” actions the Fed could consider in addition to rate cuts (For instance, the central bank could extend the new investment firm discount window, offer additional loan guarantees, or utilize any number of other tools). And the Fed may well have to use those other tools. As Japan’s “Lost Decade” demonstrated, “zero” interest rates won’t necessarily jump-start an ...
Tags for this Post:
3M Corp.;, Algeria, bank of america corp, Barack Obama, Ben S, Ben S. Bernanke, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC;, Bernard Madoff;, bush administration, car czar;, central bank, Chakib Khelil, Depression, Dow 30, Dow Chemical Co, Dow Jones, Duke University, energy analysts;, energy information administration, Enron, European Union, fed-funds, Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve System, FedEx Corp., Ford Motor Co, Gas Prices, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Gross Domestic Product, Japan, John A. Thain, John J. Mack, Market Commentary, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, NASDAQ Stock Market Inc., Oil, Oil Prices, oil supplies, Oil Trading, Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Retail Sales, Russell 2000, Senate, Sony Corp, Sp 500, the financial, U.S. House, U.S. Treasury Department, Us Federal Reserve, USD, Wall Street Journal

Fed Looking at Another Rate Cut, While Treasury Has New Plan for Housing

Contrarian Profits (December 8th, 2008) Writes:

With the benchmark Federal Funds rate already down to 1.0%, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben. S. Bernanke has only so much room for another cut (although many economists are predicting an additional half-percentage-point cut at the Dec.15-16 meeting).

The Fed extended the lives of recently initiated programs (lending facilities for investment firms, for instance) and is exploring additional moves (like Treasury purchases) aimed at reviving the credit markets.  Bernanke believes more needs to be done to slow the pace of foreclosures, especially since they jumped another 10% in September.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department is working on a plan to rejuvenate the housing market by slashing mortgage rates to 4.5% on new purchases.  Experts say that at some point these stimuli must take hold, but that’s not necessarily true.

This week’s economic calendar is highlighted by two late-week releases that are sure to garner much analysis.  The producer price index (PPI) brings another

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