Chicago, IL – November 16, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK), Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), Novartis (NVS), Baxter International (BAX) and AstraZeneca (AZN).

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Here are highlights from Friday’s Analyst Blog:

Glaxo H1N1 Vaccine Approved

GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) recently received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its unadjuvanted influenza A (H1N1) pandemic vaccine. The FDA approved the supplemental biologics license application (sBLA), which was filed as a strain change supplement to Glaxo’s FluLaval seasonal flu vaccine. This means that Glaxo can now market its swine flu vaccine for use in adults to prevent influenza.

The company has already received an order for 7.6 million doses of its swine flu vaccine from the United States Department of Health and Human Services. This order is a part of the US Government’s intention to secure about 250 million doses to help fight the swine flu pandemic.

The current outbreak of swine flu pandemic can prove to be a big opportunity for vaccine manufacturers. In addition to Glaxo, other major players in this field include Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), Novartis (NVS), Baxter International (BAX) and AstraZeneca (AZN).

In fact, several companies including Sanofi Pasteur, the vaccine division of Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics Limited, the vaccine and diagnostics arm of Novartis, MedImmune LLC, a subsidiary of AstraZeneca and CSL Limited of Australia, have already received approval from the FDA for their swine flu vaccines.

Glaxo intends to start shipping its vaccine in December and expects to provide all the doses by year-end. We expect the company’s vaccine segment to post strong revenues in the fourth quarter of 2009. In addition to strong influenza product sales, the company has made significant progress in expanding its vaccine product portfolio. The approval of cervical cancer vaccine Cervarix in the US and Japan, H1N1 vaccine Pandemrix in Europe, and the H1N1 vaccine in the US should all help drive vaccine segment revenue.

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The Dow Jones industrial average, which was well supported by strength in its all but one component, rose 203 points, or 2.0%, to a 13-month high of 10,227.  The S&P500 climbed 2.2% for its sixth straight session gain to 1093 and the tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 2.0% to close at 2154.  The market’s measure of volatility, the CBOE Vix, plunged 4.3% to 23.15.

All ten S&P500 industry groups ended in the green, led by gains in basic material shares (+3.5%) and financials (+3.5%).  Crude prices added $2.00 to close at $79.43 even as Hurricane Ida was downgraded to a tropical storm.  Gold prices went past the $1100 level, up $5.70 to $1101.40, as the metal shined brightly on its inflation hedge appeal.  At the same time, greenback took a beating on such concerns, declining 1.0% against a basket of currencies, to a 15-month intraday low of 75.04.  Shares of Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) advanced 4.6%; Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP) surged 5.9%.

A weak dollar helped shares of companies with large exposure to overseas markets.  Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) jumped 4.2%, DuPont (NYSE:DD) gained 3.7%, Boeing (NYSE:BA) rose 3.4%, and General Electric (NYSE:GE) added 3.4%.

Financials rose 3.5% with American Express (NYSE:AXP) jumping 4.9%, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) up 4.8%, Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS) up 5.9% and Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF) up 5.6%.  The Fed noted that of the ten bank holding companies that underwent US government’s stress tests only GMAC has raised its capital reserves sufficiently to meet the economic risks of higher unemployment and slowing growth. On Thursday, the FDIC meets to address the negative implications of an accounting rule change requiring credit-card firms to bring back on to their books card loans that are bundled into securities and sold to investors.

While the economic calendar remains light and corporate earnings schedule slim, Fed speak schedule is heavy, with Atlanta Fed President Lockhart slated to take the stage at 9:15 ET; San Francisco President Yellen at 10:15. Boston Fed President Rosengren is due to speak at 4:15, Dallas Fed President Fisher at 7:30 and Fed Governor Tarullo at 8:30.  Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd is expected to release a draft of the bill on financial regulatory reform.

Revisions

We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to be revised. For instance, we see this question from Casey Mulligan, "Where's the GDP Disaster?".

Last October, when we were told that spending and incomes were about to collapse, I predicted that "real GDP will not drop below $11 trillion (chained 2000 $)."

Professor Mulligan provides this graph.

I think this is an excellent time to recapitulate the hazards of making definitive assessments on the basis of data that are sure to be revised [0] [1]. To illustrate this point, I go back to the last recession, which according to the NBER extended from 2001Q1-01Q4.

I plot the vintages of GDP in Ch.1996$ available as of April 2002 (the advance release for the first quarter after the recession ended), and October 2003 (advance release for 2003Q3).

Note that GDP in the latter vintage was 1.6% lower (in log terms) in 2001Q2 than it was in the corresponding period according to the earlier vintage. This amounted to a 5 148.6 [corrected 11/1, 10:35am] billion Ch.1996$ difference.

Now, I replicate Professor Mulligan's graph. I draw Professor Mulligan's floor, along with real GDP, and an alternate for 09Q1-09Q2 that would obtain if GDP turned out to be 1.6% lower in a later vintage.

I calculate GDP in Ch.2000$ by dividing the 2005-base chained price index by the average value of the index in 2000, which is 88.648, and then dividing nominal GDP by this base-year-2000 index.

The graph indicates that in 09Q2, GDP was only 2.3% above Mulligan's floor.

And Conditional Forecasts

In some sense, the critical aspect of Professor Mulligan's argument that the events of 2008-09 were never going to be disasterous is that he made his projection conditional on none of the extraordinary measures undertaken by the Fed, nor on the the fiscal stimulus by the Federal government being implemented. It's useful to recap his statement from October:

NO DEPRESSION; NO SEVERE RECESSION

The medium term fundamentals point toward more real GDP, more employment, and (to a lesser degree) more consumption. Some employment and real GDP declines may occur in the short run, but they will be small by historical standards. Professor Cooley recently explained "The losses to date represent less than .5% of the work force. In the relatively mild recession of 2001 to 2002, job losses equaled about 1% of the work force. In the much more severe recession of 1981 to 1982, job losses totaled nearly 3% of the labor force--six times today's figure. And in the (truly) Great Depression--invoked, now, with an alarmist frequency--job losses between 1929 and the trough in 1933 were 21% of the labor force." Note that 21% over 3 1/2 years is an average decline of 2% every quarter for 14 consecutive quarters! If employment declines 2% in even one quarter, or 5% over a full year, I will admit well before 2010 that a severe recession is happening and that my 2010 forecasts are unlikely to be attained.

According to the BLS, national nonfarm employment was 136,783,000 (SA) at the end of 2006, as the housing price crash was getting underway. Real GDP was $11.4 trillion (chained 2000 $). Barring a nuclear war or other violent national disaster, employment will not drop below 134,000,000 and real GDP will not drop below $11 trillion. The many economists who predict a severe recession clearly disagree with me, because 134 million is only 2.4% below September's employment and only 2.0% below employment during the housing crash. Time will tell.

Now, I assume that Mulligan feels free to compare a forecast conditioned on no fiscal policy against one with fiscal policy to the extent he believes multipliers are near zero or even negative. And perhaps he believes money is neutral in the short run. If so, then of course it's fine to make the comparisons he does. But for those of us who believe that monetary and fiscal policy have textbook effects, then making that comparison is problematic. In the absence of these stimulus measures, I believe we may very well have breached that 11 trillion floor.

To see this, consider CBO's assessment that by 2009Q4, the stimulus package would have an impact of between 1.4 to 3.8 ppts of baseline GDP. The midpoint is 2.6 ppts. That's well within the range of the Mulligan floor.

So, to conclude, in my view, a "GDP disaster" would have occurred in the absence of aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve, the US Government, as well as fiscal and monetary authorities abroad.

The Swiss government has agreed to the international standard on exchange of data. The treaty calls for compulsory arbitration in some tax cases. It also demands changes in the dividend treatments when a pension or retirement fund holds shares.

The US government pursued a tax evasion case against UBS AG (UBS), which was settled last month with the Swiss bank agreeing to provide account details of its 4,450 American clients who allegedly evaded taxes.

Over the years, Swiss banks have enjoyed large foreign deposit inflows as its domestic tax system emphasizes extreme confidentiality. However, adoption of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s standards for tax co-operation coupled with the lawsuit between the US Internal Revenue Service and UBS led to a dilution of secrecy.

Recently, Switzerland signed an agreement for sharing banking information upon request from France's tax authorities from January 2010. There have been huge outflows of funds as anxious investors eye a safe refuge.

Formed through merger of Union Bank of Switzerland and Swiss Bank Corp. in 1998, UBS is one of the largest banks in the world. The ongoing global economic turmoil has severely hurt its balance sheet since the subprime crisis led to record losses. The investment banking arm of UBS particularly recorded large trading losses after significant decreases in commissions and fee income. Its asset quality is beginning to turn negative and is expected to worsen further in the coming quarters.

Company Description

American Capital Agency Corp. operates as a real estate investment trust that invests in pass through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations in which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the US government. The company was founded in 2008 and has a market cap of $533 million.

With the economy showing signs of improvement on the heels of stability in the hosing market, shares of AGNC have been posting big gains over the last few months. The company's solid second-quarter results, reported on July 29, helped drive momentum forward.

Second-Quarter Results

For the quarter, American Capital declared a dividend of $1.50 per share, while reporting net income of $30.4 million. The company noted that its average net interest rate spread for the quarter was 3.55%.

CIO Speak

Chief investment officer Gary Clein provided some interesting details about the company's results, saying that "Our results for the quarter benefited from several factors, including slower than expected prepayment speeds, a larger investment portfolio, lower funding costs and improved valuations on higher coupon agency securities."

Estimates Rising

Estimates have been steadily rising over the last few months, with the current year adding $1.96 and climbing to $4.52 per share.

Valuation

Based upon this earnings projection, this stocks trades with a P/E multiple of just 6.4X, a discount to the overall market but also a signal that investors are placing a risk premium into shares due to ongoing uncertainty in housing and lending.

The Chart

Shares of STEC just hit another 52-week high after posting big gains for most of the last 6 months. Take a look below.

Zacks Investment Research

The US government sanctioned ARRA as an economic stimulus package earlier this year, allocating almost $7.2 billion for broadband and related infrastructure development in rural and underprivileged markets across the country.

Frontier provides telecommunication services both as an incumbent local exchange carrier (ILEC) and a competitive local exchange carrier (CLEC). The company filed one application for certain areas of West Virginia where it is authorized to operate as an ILEC and the other application for areas where it serves as a CLEC.

If sanctioned, Frontier will receive aggregate federal funding of $69 million for expanding broadband infrastructure coverage and network speed in West Virginia. The company will use this fund to deploy and connect fiber-optic cable from its central office to key public facilities such as schools, hospitals, nursing homes and libraries. This network deployment will allow broadband speeds of up to 100 Meg.

Increased penetration of broadband business in the rural regions, which are either underserved or not served at all, remains a key element in Frontier’s long-term growth strategy. As part of its broadband expansion initiatives in West Virginia, the company is investing roughly $4 million in Charles Town and Princeton service regions for deploying fiber-optic network.

Frontier remains significantly challenged by beleaguered economic condition in its service territories and contends with loss of legacy fixed-telephony business to wireless and other competitive offerings by cable TV operators. However, subscription levels continue to increase for the company’s high-margin broadband service.

The company’s high-speed Internet customer base surpassed the 600,000 mark through healthy quarterly additions on a consistent basis. As a result of low customer acquisition costs and declining capital expenses, broadband remains more profitable than its traditional local and long-distance services.

Frontier is set to lead the pure-play rural telecom market by acquiring the rural fixed-line business of Verizon Communications (VZ) in 14 states, including West Virginia, for about $8.6 billion. This acquisition represents an important stimulus to accelerate deployment of broadband services to remote rural markets and will further strengthen the company’s presence in West Virginia.

Intelligent power grids, or smart grids, are based on the conventional power grids which transport electricity from large power plants to individual households. However, digital technology allows individual households or businesses to manage their electricity more efficiently, allowing them to receive, or deliver back to the grid, electricity from other sources like wind or solar power facilities, or even from batteries in electric cars.

According to studies, more than a billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions could be abated with intelligent power networks by 2020. Smart Grids are essential for integrating renewable power sources into power networks and for ensuring stable power supplies from solar and wind energy.

Overall, the Smart Grid market has three primary components: Smart Metering (intelligent billing), Grid Intelligence (the grid infrastructure and its controls) and Utility IT (intelligent data management). Siemens is active in all three areas and is already the global market leader for grid intelligence.

Smart Grids have enormous growth potential worldwide. They are, for example, a prerequisite for reaching the EU’s 20-20-20 climate goals aimed at reducing CO2 emissions by 20% and increasing the share of renewable energies in the European grid by 20% by 2020. In addition, Smart Grids are included in many of the economic stimulus programs throughout the world.

The US government plans to invest around 3 billion Euros here in the coming years. Siemens expects to receive orders worth around 15 billion Euros from these programs by 2012. Out of these, 40% or roughly 6 billion Euros is likely to be for green technologies from the Siemens Environmental Portfolio.

A slew of companies across the globe are pushing to secure their share in this projected growth market, ranging from blue chips like Siemens, General Electric Co. (GE) and Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) to various start-ups offering related components and services.

Energy-efficient and flexible power grids are a key cornerstone for the launch of electric cars on a broader scale, as they can be designed to meet specific needs for the supply, demand and storage of electricity.

Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest automaker by sales, said in July that it would launch an electric version of its upcoming New Small Family car in 2013. Other auto makers, including Nissan Motor Co. Ltd and General Motors Co., are also pressing ahead with developing fully electric cars for the mass market. 

Energy-efficient, resource-conserving Smart Grids are part of the Siemens Environmental Portfolio, which generated a quarter of its total sales in fiscal 2008.

Siemens is a German industrial conglomerate with interests in information services, automation and controls, medical equipment, power generation, transportation systems, automotive electronics, lighting and many other areas. With a focus on electronics and electrical engineering, the company is a major multinational with over 430,000 employees in more than 190 countries.

We currently have a Neutral recommendation on Siemens.

Today, we're fortunate to have Simon van Norden, Professor of Finance at HEC Montréal (École des Hautes Études Commerciales), as a guest blogger.

"Once you've seen one financial market crisis...you've seen one financial market crisis."

-- Attributed to Federal Reserve Board Governor Kevin Warsh by former US Treasury Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy Phillip Swagel in The Financial Crisis: an Inside View, March 2009, p. 4.

The financial crisis has set a lot of records so far; it's certainly the worst US banking crisis of my lifetime. Some, as suggested by the above quote, see such crises as unique events; each one is singular and there's not much to be learned about how to handle one from looking at past crises. For example, there's no precedent that I know of for a banking crisis involves the failure of the biggest counterparties for credit default swaps.

I think a much smaller number of people see the crisis differently; they think of it as another potato, a big one. No two potatoes are exactly alike in size and shape, but they all taste pretty much the same and you can use the same recipe for most of them. For that reason, it's interesting to see to what extent the current crisis behaves like other crises, even if it has some unique features.

I think there's some interesting parallels between the current crisis, the Savings and Loan (S&L) crisis of the 80s and 90s, and the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) Crisis of 1998. But before I talk about that, let me talk about what a "typical" banking crisis looks like.

The Basel View of "Typical" Banking Crises

If we set the way-back machine to 2004, a time long before terms like ARM, CDS, and AIG entered common conversation, we can see what people thought a typical bank crisis looked like. That's the year the guys in Basel who worry about such things published "Bank Failures in Mature Economies." They looked at the main banking crises in developed countries from 1980 to 2000 and asked themselves what they saw. To be sure, they saw some differences, but they also saw some patterns. Here's part of their main conclusions (note that "credit risk" is Banker for "bad loans").

Most of the widespread [banking] failures required some amount of public support, sometimes in very large amounts. All of the episodes that involved large amounts of public support were caused by credit risk problems. ...The widespread banking crises that involved credit risk were remarkably similar. A period of financial deregulation resulted in rapid growth in lending, particularly in real estate related lending. Rapidly rising real estate prices encouraged more lending, abetted by lax regulatory systems in many cases. When economic recessions occurred, inflated real estate prices collapsed, leading directly to the failures. (BIS, 2004, p.66)

That sounds a lot like what the US (and some other countries) experienced immediately afterwards. There had been some financial deregulation, which was followed by a period of very rapid growth in real-estate-related lending. Rapidly rising real estate values encouraged more lending. The biggest difference seems to be the last point; the recession did not cause real estate prices to collapse; they had peaked by 2006 and fell before the recession started. We could probably also argue about whether it was financial deregulation or "financial innovation that avoided regulations" that helped fuel the increase in real-estate lending. However, in this view the boom and bust cycle in real estate, the subsequent fallout for the banking sector, and the need for a major publicly-funded bailout is not remarkable; we've seen this kind of story before. In fact, Reinhart and Rogoff have gone so far as to tabulate what happens to government debt in the aftermath of a banking crisis. They find that real government debt increases by an average of 86% in the three years after the start of a crisis. So regardless of how you feel about the US government's spending during the crisis, it seems less remarkable when compared to what typically happens in a banking crisis.

Three American Financial Market Crises

More support for the view that banking crises follow similar patterns can be found by comparing the last three US banking crises; the S&L crisis of the late 80s and early 90s, the collapse of LTCM and the most recent crisis. The S&L crisis closely followed the pattern described by the BIS report quoted above; financial deregulation, followed by a rapid growth in real estate lending, creation of local speculative bubbles in real estate prices, and the failure of institutions as bubbles burst (For descriptions of the S&L crisis, see BIS (2004) or the GAO 1996 report). The General Accounting Office put the cost of the S&L bailout to US taxpayers at $132.1 billion, or a bit under 2% of GDP (United States General Accounting Office (1996) "Financial Audit: Resolution Trust Corporation's 1994 and 1995 Financial Statements," Table 3 and author's calculations). That may seem small compared to the size of TARP or this year's projected federal deficit, but it was shocking at the time.

At first glance, the LTCM crisis appears quite different; no bank failed (LTCM was a hedge fund), its failure was unrelated to real estate investment or credit risk, and the crisis was resolved at no cost to the taxpayer. However, the LTCM crisis showed that, as a result of deregulation, a systemic crisis could start outside the regulated banking system. Another GAO study noted:

The LTCM case illustrated that market discipline can break down and showed that potential systemic risk can be posed not only by a cascade of major firm failures, but also by leveraged trading positions. LTCM was able to establish leveraged trading positions of a size that posed potential systemic risk primarily because the banks and securities and futures firms that were its creditors and counterparties failed to enforce their own risk management standards. (US GAO (1999) p. 29)

The same report noted:

• Gaps in [US Government agencies'] regulatory authority limits their ability to identify and mitigate systemic risk (US GAO (1999) p. 24)
• Regulators did not identify weaknesses in firms' risk management practices until after the crisis (US GAO (1999) p. 16)
• Monitoring did not reveal the potential systemic threat posed by LTCM (US GAO (1999) p. 17)

and provided a variety of proposals (some of which are mentioned below) to reform the financial system by reducing systemic risks.

The success of those reforms can be judged by role of similar factors in the most recent US banking crisis. An important factor in the latter has been the role of trading in derivative securities, primarily mortgage-based securities and credit default swaps (CDS). Again, government oversight of this market was limited due to faith in the market's ability to manage its exposure to risk, and was further weakened by divided responsibilities between multiple agencies. Regulators and private lenders alike were again unaware of major firms' exposure to losses on derivative securities; this time even the heads of major financial institutions were not aware of the extent of their own exposures. Again, this was in part due to the lack of transparency, lack of clearing and high leverage afforded by trade in Over-the-Counter (OTC) derivatives (particularly those traded at Bear Stearns.) Again, weaknesses in firms' risk management practices became apparent only in hindsight. Again, major financial firms that were not regulated as traditional deposit-taking banks took on highly-leveraged positions and posed major systemic threats to the banking system. These included several investment banks (such as Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and CitiGroup) and the insurance company AIG.

Conclusion

Looking at recent events from this perspective, I still see the size of the losses as breathtaking, but the causes and dynamics seem much more familiar. What bothers me is that some of the suggested solutions sound pretty familiar too; make derivative trading more transparent, improve coordination among the regulators, give regulators more power to control systemic risk in new places, and so on. Despite that, not only was there another crisis, but it was much larger than the two previous crises combined.

This post written by Simon van Norden.

We believe the primary reason for this increment is the company’s blockbuster fourth-quarter results and growing visibility of its future business prospects. As a leading government electronics supplier, Harris benefits from the increase in US defense expenditures. It has a sustainable and diversified product pipeline with a potential market size of $15 billion. Its total order backlog at the end of fiscal 2009 was more than $6.1 billion. In the previous quarter, all the three business segments of the company received healthy order bookings. Harris reported that it had $1.29 billion new orders during the fourth quarter, an improvement of 22% over the previous quarter.

We believe that in the near term, Harris will benefit from higher defense expenditure by the US government and new expansion drives in the Asian, European and African markets. The company has established a solid international dealer network to pursue multiyear contracts throughout these regions and estimates that international markets represent around $4 billion pipeline opportunity. It recently won large-scale multiyear standardization contracts in Mexico, Australia, Algeria, U.K., Pakistan, Sweden and Iraq.

Harris also won five domestic contracts for its Public Safety and Professional Communications services. We believe the newly acquired M/A-COM will generate significant synergies for the company’s existing land mobile radio business. Integration of high-end solutions of M/A-COM will enable Harris to gain a strong foothold in the $9 billion global Public Safety and Professional Communications market.

The contract had originally been awarded to Northrop by the Army's Intelligence and Security Command, Fort Belvoir in 1997. Through this follow-on contract, valid for five years, Northrop will coordinate multiple battlefield functions such as electronic warfare, military deception, psychological warfare, operations security and computer-network operations to disrupt enemy decision-making while protecting information necessary for the US troops.

The deal will boost Northrop’s dwindling backlog subsequent to termination of the $5.1 billion Kinetic Energy Interceptor program by the US Government. The company’s total backlog fell to $70.4 billion after the second quarter from $76.9 billion year over year.

Based in Los Angeles, California, Northrop Grumman provides products, services, and solutions in information and services, aerospace, electronics and shipbuilding to the military, government and commercial customers in the United States and beyond. The company is the largest IT service provider to the federal government. In addition, it is the only nuclear-powered aircraft shipbuilder in the United States. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.

Qualcomm continues to lead mobile video market with the deployment of MediaFLO networks (that offers FLO TV services). In June, the mobile TV industry received a boost when the US government decided to switch to digital TV from analog transmission.

The immediate beneficiary of this was Qualcomm’s FLO TV network, which has already spent $500 million to buy spectrum that has been released. The company will now have the opportunity to broadcast its transmission in 100 major US markets serving more than 250 million potential customers. According to industry researches, market size for mobile TV may reach $10 billion by 2013 from $1.5 billion in 2008.

Advertisement in the mobile TV network is gaining huge market traction for the corporate world. Since each mobile device is connected to a specific viewer, the scope for audience-specific advertisement is enormous in this industry. Rentrak’s TV Essentials media management system will provide relevant viewership information on FLO TV network to several advertisers and content developers.

FLO-TV has been offered by the two largest telecom operators in the U.S., AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless (VZ). The company has bought select licenses in the FCC auctions for 700-Mhz spectrum. Qualcomm has also started a trial run of FLO TV in Taiwan in collaboration with Taiwan Television Enterprise Ltd. and China Network Systems. Successful delivery may result in further business opportunities in the vast Asian market.

To bolster its position, Qualcomm has entered multi-year licensing agreements with large media content/broadcaster companies to provide TV programs through the FLO TV mobile entertainment platform. CBS, CBS College Sports, CBS News, CNBC, Comedy Central, ESPN, ESPN News, ESPN 2, FOX, FOX News, FOX Sports, MSNBC, MTV, NBC, NBC 2Go, NBC News, NBC Sports and Nickelodeon are the channels which have joined hands with FLO TV.

Lower earnings and cash flow have resulted in a leverage which is above normal levels for maintaining an “A" assigned to the company’s long-term default rating, unsecured bank credit and senior unsecured debt program. Fitch has an "F1" rating on Honeywell’s short-term issuer default and commercial papers.

Although the global recession has hurt the company’s short-term outlook and 2009 results, Honeywell plans to continue its investments to ensure growth when the economy rebounds. It intends to reduce debt to help limit the impact of weaker financial results on leverage in 2009. The company continues to target strong financial metrics to improve its financial flexibility and ability to maintain a solid competitive edge.

Honeywell had cash and cash equivalents of $2.6 billion, long-term debt of $6.2 billion and net worth of $8.6 billion as of June 30. Its long-term debt-equity ratio is 0.72 and net debt stands at $3.6 billion, down by $20 million from the first half of 2009.

A rating downgrade is unlikely if Honeywell's actions and planned debt reduction contribute to a financial improvement by end of 2009.

A change in the level of the US Government’s defense and aerospace funding could adversely impact sales of Aerospace’s defense and space-related product and services. Future growth is also dependent upon the company’s ability to develop pioneering technologies that achieve market acceptance with acceptable margins.

Honeywell is a diversified technology and manufacturing company, serving customers worldwide with aerospace products and services, control, sensing and security technologies for buildings, homes and industry, among other things. United Technologies Corp. (UTX) and Johnson Controls Inc. (JCI) are its major competitors.

We currently have a Neutral Recommendation on Honeywell.

Chrysler stopped vehicle production after seeking bankruptcy protection and, consequently, its North American vehicle production in the second quarter declined 84% year over year. General Motors also ceased operations at a number of its North American vehicle assembly facilities under bankruptcy protection leading to a 53% decline in its vehicle production during the period. Although both companies have regained their positions, their parts manufacturers are yet to overcome effects of the bankruptcies.

Magna’s revenue slipped 45% year over year to $3.7 billion. Sales in the North American Production segment, which comprises sales in North America, Europe and rest of the world, declined 43% to $2.9 billion. Sales in North America fell 55% to $1.4 billion while that in Europe were down 33% to $1.4 billion. However, revenue from rest of world rose 4% to $154 million, helped by higher sales in China and Brazil.

Revenue in the Complete Vehicle Assembly segment dropped 60% to $423 million. The decrease in Complete Vehicle Assembly sales was primarily a result of a fall in assembly volumes for BMW X3, Saab 93 Convertible, Chrysler 300, Jeep Commander and Grand Cherokee. Sales in Tooling, engineering and other sales segment declined 16% to $336 million.

Year over year, North American vehicle production fell 49% to 1.8 million units while the average dollar content per vehicle decreased 10%. European vehicle production slipped 28% to 3.1 million units while average dollar content per vehicle fell 7%.

Outlook

Magna did not provide any financial guidance. However, the company is optimistic about the CARS stimulus programs. Recently, the US government implemented the Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS), an incentive program effective Jul 24, 2009 (for vehicles purchased on or after July 1, 2009), for stimulating sales of new vehicles. The company expects U.S. automotive sales to stabilize going forward. July auto sales were the highest so far this year, driven by the incentive program.

Investors can find such funds by checking out the entire list of the Zacks #1 Rank Government Fixed Income Funds.

3 Solid Picks

Putnam American Government Income A (PAGVX) was incepted in March 1985. The investment seeks an attractive level of income along with capital preservation.

The fund invests mainly in government bonds with the highest credit rating, AAA. The manager uses proprietary models to evaluate mortgage-backed bonds and to manage the fund’s interest rate risk.

Rob Bloemker has been lead manager at the fund since July 2002. He has 21 years of industry experience. The fund has topped the total returns of its benchmark index in the last 1-, 3- and 5-year periods.

Sentinel Government Securities A (SEGSX) seeks high current income while seeking to control risk by investing mainly in US government bonds.

The fund chooses the types of US government securities it believes will provide the best return with the least risk at the time of investment. Its investment process incorporates active duration management, yield curve positioning and sector as well as security selection.

The fund may invest up to 20% of assets in high-quality money-market instruments not issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government. It has an expense ratio of 0.95%.

SEI Daily Income Intermediate-Duration Government A (TCPGX) seeks to preserve principal value and maintain a high degree of liquidity while providing current income.

Under normal market conditions, the fund invests in intermediate-duration US treasury obligations and other US Government securities. It may also invest in futures contracts, options, swaps and other similar instruments.

Unit holders have to make a minimum initial investment of $100,000 to enter this Zacks#1 Rank (“Strong Buy") fund. The fund distributes dividends monthly and capital gains, if any, annually.

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• Europe's biggest bank, HSBC (NYSE:HBC) surprised with a first half profit of $3.35 billion, versus expectations of a $600 million loss, although down 57% from last year's $7.72 billion profit. According to the bank, "It may be that we have passed, or are about to pass, the bottom of the cycle in the financial markets"

• Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) reported third quarter earnings of 33 cents a share, 11 cents above estimates, on in-line revenues of $6.7 billion

• Humana (NYSE:HUM) reported second quarter earnings of $1.67 a share, three cents better than expected. For the year the company sees earnings of $6.10 to $6.20 a share

• James River Coal (NASDAQ:JRCC) reported a second quarter miss at 59 cents, off by 19 cents. The firm said it now sees earnings for 2009 of $2.25 to $2.60 a share, compared with its earlier projection of $3.30 to $3.80 a share

• Loews (NYSE:L) second quarter missed at 78 cents, 20 cents below expectations on revenues of$3.5 billion, down 10% y/y

In a bubble, Day and Night

Is it Bust or is it Boom

That frames thy fearful asymmetry?*

 (click on pictures to enlarge)

Can you feel it? That calm and soothing feeling of low volatility and heaven bound risky assets driven by green shoots and second derivatives. Well, if you can't you are excused since neither can yours truly, or more precisely; he has a distinctly difficult time seeing from where people get the idea that we are headed for a broad based global recovery. However, beauty as always lies in the eye of the beholder and whichever way you look at it would be difficult to completely deny that the three key ingredients for a global recovery (and a resurgence of carry trade) in the form of low volatility, steadily climbing risky assets, and benign credit wholesale market credit conditions certainly seem to be present in ample quantities.

Now, while it is true that the level of volatility is still higher now than it was pre Q4-2008 and indeed pre August 2007 the trend so far this year has been inexorably down which reflects the perception that the worst may be over as well as the discourse of second derivatives and green shoots which has been with us throughout Q2 2009. With respect to equities they have equally begun to nudge up and are up some 5-10% from the beginning of the year in relation to Europe and the US. If you count from the trough reach some time during the first quarter this year, the increase would of course be bigger. The strength of the recovery discourse has taken many by surprise or perhaps more precisely, it has frustrated many. For example, I take note of the fact that two of the most astute macro traders (at least in my book) are feeling decidedly puzzled by the way the market is behaving at the moment. I cannot say that I blame them. For someone who take pride in being up to date in terms of macroeconomic data and analysis one would find it difficult to track the amount of bullishness which currently appear to have taken hold.

Now, I should immediately point out that I am not blind to the existence of the second derivative. I mean, I took calculus and I can also eyeball a graph in changes when I see one. My only gripe is that it only takes the faintest of scratch in the surface of the second derivative/green shoot glamour image to see that the fundamentals have not changed and moreover that the crisis has now moved its locus away from the US and right smack into the mainland of Europe in the form of significant downside risks in relation to Southern Europe and the ongoing mess in the CEE.

Yet, who is listening to a Danish student of economics anyway?

Consider consequently that the past couple of weeks brought us Bernanke's "exit talk" testimony to congress, news that a certain Mervyn residing at Threadneedle street would beat Bernanke to the exit, news that Russia is actually seriously considering issuing (and expecting foreign investors to bite) debt to cover its 2010 deficit, news that Hungary actually lowered interest rates despite, one could easily infer, an abyss of downside in the form of a plunging forint and a liability side denominated in Swiss francs, and finally Timmy's trip to China where it seems that the main message carried was one of reassurance that the US most certainly intend to vigilant towards the rising deficit.

We could add the Q2 GDP print in the US (preliminary) put up a much better figure, - 1% annualised, than expected which has so far been interpreted as a sign of recover although yet again I think that narrating this as a sign of an impending recovery is somewhat of a stretch. Meanwhile, Europe is heading straight for deflation and although I know that some economists, especially those of the old academic guard, consistently have been pointing to the benign effects of rigidness on the downside it is very important to remember that those same prices will need to adjust in key Eurozone countries absent a currency to bear some of the burden and thus price/wage rigidity may turn out to be a curse rather than a blessing.

Where is the Recovery?

The easiest way to approach this question is perhaps to point out where the recovery isn't and here I am talking about the OECD in general. Surely, we may succeed to avoid future cataclysmic events but the something has changed and new fundamentals are taking over. For example, I seriously doubt that many people have considered what it means for the global economy that the US economy will need to run an external surplus and I also think that most people have not yet realized the consequences of the unfolding mess in Europe and the Eurozone. On the other hand I have also stressed before how I am not, after all, a permabear in the sense that I do indeed see positive signs in emerging economies such as for example Brazil, India, Chile, Turkey, and China (although the latter is different for a number of reasons). I won't call this decoupling because evidently it isn't. To stay in the jargon I would rather call it re-coupling since this is essentially what it is and one key issue is the extent to which the new global economic system will help to even out the present imbalances and what consequences this, in some sense, inevitable rebalancing will have on surplus and deficit economies respectively. In this context and although one should always be careful in quoting onself, the following from an entry back in May still sums up quite well how I see the world at the moment;

We are very much still stuck in the mire and especially so in the context of the so-called developed OECD economies where it is difficult to see where any speedy recovery is going to come from. On the other hand the world is not made up entirely by the OECD edifice and it is exactly the potential for an asymmetric "recovery" and how global monetary policy might serve to transmit such a recovery which is the topic of this entry.

For the specifics of how I see the role of global monetary policy and global liquidity I recommend you to visit the actual post. However, it is worth noting that in a world where major global central banks are destined to keep rates low for an extended period it does not take much creativity to imagine the dynamics by which the global economy may potentially move forward driven by carry trade flows financed in the developed world seeking yield in whatever economies that might be able (and willing) to absorb the tide which is coming.

As I have stressed on several occasions it is exactly this reshuffling of the global economy on the back of the financial crisis which is at the heart of the matter. One obvious consequence is thus that the global economy, at one and the same time, increasingly will be populated by an increasing amount of economies with the need (and desire) to deleverage as well as an increasing amount of economies dependent on exports to achieve economic growth. In wonkish terms, global economies will tend to move towards the same intertemporal preference for consumption and saving and since global intertemporal smoothing, by definition, occurs through current account imbalances it is not difficult to see how there is a constraint on many economies’ ability to smooth their consumption and saving decisions optimally in the case of a process of crowding in one end of the spectrum.

An obvious question here becomes; who, if any, will be the economies tilting the scale in the other direction through their ability to provide capacity (return) for other nations' desire to save more?

How are things in Emerming Market Land then?

Personally, I have tended to put my focus elsewhere than China most prominently because I think that the old narrative of the BRIC economies taking over the helm is not an adequate way to look at it. Essentially, I would put Brazil and India one one side and Russia and China on the other side since in the case of the latter they are about to grow old much before they become the economies so many people expect to become. Apart from Brazil and India I also see a fairly wide batch of emerging economies with the potential to do the heavy lifting as we move forward and I would include here economies such as Chile, Indonesia, Turkey, Morroco and a number of others. Much more than quibbling about the actual candidates here I want to emphasise the importance in realizing how this global realignment won't take place with the emergence of one single economy taking over from the US, but rather with a "basket" of economies/currencies driving the realignment.

Having said all this, it is pretty difficult to get around the fact that everything seems to be revolving around China at the moment. More specifically fears are growing that in an effort the counter the global recession and in a world where 6-8% growth rates are, in general, difficult to come by Chinese authorities as well as foreign investors are fuelling a bubble in China which may look like the one currently unravelling in e.g. the Baltics look minuscule [quote from Bloomberg and the FT]. Thus and even though I would argue that the analysis should have a different fundamental focus it is still cast in the perspective of, first China and then the BRICs in general.

The BRIC nations, which also include India and Russia, have the four best performing stock markets in dollar terms this year among the world’s 20 biggest, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China’s Shanghai Composite Index has soared 85 percent in dollars while Brazil’s Bovespa Index rose 77 percent. India’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, climbed 61 percent and Russia’s RTS Index gained 60 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in the U.S., by comparison, is up 8.4 percent while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 7.5 percent.

Investor appetite for emerging-market assets is building on speculation that countries such as China and Brazil will be among the first to recover from the worst global recession since World War II, said Vinicius Silva, New York-based emerging markets strategist for Morgan Stanley. “It highlights the fact that demand for emerging-market assets remain strong and that companies, particularly in the BRIC markets, are using the improvements in capital markets to raise capital,” Silva said.

(FT)

Shares in Shanghai and Hong Kong tumbled on Wednesday as investors snapped up two newly listed mainland construction groups while selling down the rest of the market after reports that China’s central bank might rein in bank lending. Shares in China State Construction Engineering rose by as much as 90 per cent on their debut before closing 56 per cent stronger in Shanghai. China’s largest house-builder had last week raised Rmb50.2bn ($7.34bn) in the world’s biggest initial public offering since Visa raised $19bn in March 2008.

It is way beyond the scope of this post to open the box on what is really going on China. In terms of that topic I reserve the right to deal with it later and refer, thus far, to my styling on Blake above. However, I did like the recent analysis by Morgan Stanley's Qing Wang in which he talks about whether China is over-investing or over saving as well as the very relevant question of where the money would be spent were it not being used to finance the massive infrastructure investment program. Or, what is the opportunity cost of China's fixed asset investment program?

Given China's high national savings rate, from the perspective of the economy as a whole, there are only three forms in which China can deploy its savings: 1) onshore physical assets; 2) offshore physical assets; and 3) offshore financial assets. Since China maintains tight controls over outbound capital flows, about 70% of China's total offshore assets are in the form of official FX reserve assets as a result of investment made by a single-largest investor - the central bank. Moreover, we estimate that about 65-70% of China's official FX reserves are invested in US dollar assets, the bulk of which are US government bonds.

In response to this I ask the simple question. What is actually the capacity in China to create return on current and future investment of the magnitudes we are talking about both in the context of money supplied by domestic stimulus packages as well as foreign money thirsty for yield? Wang touches exactly upon this question as he questions just how much China can suck up. I would put it much more bluntly. China's capacity is declining and will continue to do so as we move forward as a result of the ageing which the one child policy is set to produce. This is really the missing story on China at the moment I feel and one story which could go a long way to differentiate the story. In this respect I do agree wholeheartedly with Michael Pettis when he says;

I have warned for a long time that it would be very difficult for China to make the necessary transition to a consumption-led economy quickly enough to accommodate the global adjustment taking place. Unless it is willing to see its economy collapse, there is simply no way China can reduce its negative net demand quickly enough to match the contraction in US demand and so avoid squeezing the hell out of the global tradable goods sectors. That is why policy coordination is so important, especially between China and the USD, and of course that is why I continue to be a pessimist. I do not think this policy coordination is taking place. I will write about this more later this week.

The only thing I would add is that this is not simply a question of correcting US-China imbalances, but a more more deep rooted issue in terms of fundamental drivers of international capital flows and the future supply of net capacity.

Moving on to safer ground I recently did a lengthy analysis on Chile in which I concluded that the economy was one of to watch for relative good news in relation to the financial crisis. Recently, we learned how Chilean banks booked a healthy US 959 million profit in the first half of 2009 and although this number is useless in itself I think that it is pretty obvious from digging into the specifics (see article) that although Chile financial sector has seen its share of losses, the picture is a lot less dire than elsewhere. In fact, if we look at one of graphs that I showed in my analysis of Chile, we see that financial services have held up remarkably well during the financial crisis (see also here), no doubt due to strong underlying fundamentals as well as a very aggressive policy reaction from the central bank. 

Generally, analysts and local observers in Chile are beginning to notice green shoots with increasing regularity and unlike the ones observed in Europe or elsewhere in the OECD I am more confident that the ones in Chile are going to be long lived although 2009, in all likelihood, will be a tough year when the chapter is closed. The following quote is from Bloomberg;

Chile’s economy may be starting to recover from its slump as extra government spending spurs growth, Finance Minister Andres Velasco said today. Velasco has spent more than $4 billion this year on tax cuts and extra outlays. He will pull $8 billion from Chile’s offshore savings funds in 2009 to help pay for the stimulus as well as to plug the budget deficit caused by slowing growth and lower receipts from mining.

Chile is facing the deepest recession since 1999 after revenue from exports declined and a virus ravaged its salmon farming industry. The economy shrank faster than forecast in the first half and probably contracted in the second quarter from the first, the central bank said on July 8.

“These policies have effects, but they don’t occur overnight, they don’t happen in one month or one quarter,” Velasco said. “We have to continue working, we have to keep a cool head and at the same time be prudently optimistic.”

Now, Velasco has a distinct interest, of course, in spinning the story in a certain way but until evidence surfaces to the contrary I am willing to buy this story. More generally, the influence of China also pops up in the context of copper prices where many suggest that a large part of the recent increase in Copper prices (and indeed commodities) owes itself exactly to the stimulus money from China. As a side note on this, it seems that the link between rising Copper (and commodities in general) is being increasingly linked to a story of stockpiling in China and then of course, what will happen when China decides that it has had enough. This was a story I picked up on in my analysis of Chile (picked off from Macro Man) and it appears to be gaining traction as an actual analytical explanation.

Elsewhere in Latin America, Morgan Stanley's Latam analyst on Brazil Marcelo Carvalho simply throws in the towel, as it were, devotes an entire note to the link between Brazil and China and what this means for the economic growth of the former. As will come as no surprise Carvalho notes the strong link between Brazil's economic performance and commodity prices and since China certainly seems to be driving the latter, if not directly, then through its effect on overall global sentiment then the rampant growth in China may add positively to the outlook in Brazil.

Moving the perspective up a further notch and as a concluding remark on my, admittedly, selective tour of the emerging market edifice I will leave you with the recent general statement from Morgan Stanley's Manoj Pradhan;

The strong worldwide rally in risky assets since March reflects not just the relief that the worst is likely behind us, but also anticipation of a return to growth for most economies. Much is expected from Emerging Markets, particularly from Asia ex-Japan, which is expected to outperform the rest of the world. Markets and investors realize, however, that not all EM economies are alike, and some will show output growth that is lower than the 1.3% growth our global team expects from the G10 economies in 2010.

Thanks for nothing might be your immediate response here and although I agree that this is extremely general it does sum up the main discourse at the moment whether you agree or not.

Bottomline - What to Watch?

The answer to this question depends on your perspective of course but it seems abundantly clear that if the locus of the financial and economic crisis has moved from the US to the shores of Europe and in particular Eastern and Southern Europe, the corresponding locus of the recovery has moved to Asia (ex-Japan) and most forcefully China. I think it is important to understand how and why these two discourses may co-exist as we move forward.

I believe it is obviously clear that the global economy is not heading for a quick rebound here, but it is equally as clear that some economies will be able to post growth rates that are much above the mean of what the OECD is able to. In this way, one key theme to watch is how this difference is transmitted through to the global economy e.g. in the form of carry trade flows but also in the form of an evolving process by which some economies begin, and go through, their inevitable adjustment and rebalancing phase.

In this specific context I have to be more than a little bit skeptical about the capabilities of China. This is not out of an inherent disdain towards the country but, on the contrary, because I fear that China may ultimately succumb to all those hopes and subsequent load pinned on her shoulders. In this sense I think, although I acknowledge that I have presented no formal analysis to back it up, that the recovery is some way to really materialize and that it may just ultimately be bust and not boom that frames China's economy.

---

* Apologies to William Blake; and of course to Macro Man for encroaching on his territory.

The fund invests in the stocks of large companies with market-capitalization values generally of at least $6 billion at the time of purchase. In addition, it may invest up to 20% of its assets in foreign securities. The fund is non-diversified.

Allergan Inc. (AGN - Analyst Report), Visa Inc. (V - Snapshot Report) and Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM - Analyst Report) are among the top holdings at the fund.

UBS Global Equity A (BNGEX) seeks to maximize total US dollar return, consisting of capital appreciation and current income.

The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of US and foreign equities, primarily large capitalization stocks of major developed countries. It utilizes a globally integrated investment process intended to uncover undervalued markets, currencies, sectors and securities.

Nicholas Melhuish has been lead manager at the fund since January 2008. The fund has an expense ratio of 1.25%.

UBS PACE Government Securities Fixed Income A (PFXAX) seeks current income. The fund primarily invests in government fixed income securities.

While it can invest in US government and other bonds of varying maturities, the fund normally limits portfolio "duration" within two years of the effective duration of its benchmark index. As of January 2009, its portfolio turnover was 970%.

Unit holders have to make a minimum initial investment of $1,000 to enter this Zacks#1 Rank ("Strong Buy") fund. The fund has topped the total returns of its benchmark index in the last 1-, 3- and 5-year periods.

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) downgraded shares of IBM (NYSE:IBM) to "neutral" from "buy"

• Infosys Technologies (NASDAQ:INFY) beat estimates by 8 cents, posting fiscal first-quarter earnings of 55 cents a share as revenues fell 2.9% y/y to $1.12 billion.  The company expects second quarter earnings of 50 cents to 51 cents a share and full-year earnings of $1.97 to $2.00

• Barclays (NYSE:BCS) upgraded KLA Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) shares to "overweight"

• General Motors (NASDAQ"GMGMQ) exits bankruptcy today

• Nissan Motor (NASDAQ:NSANY) CEO Ghosn warned 2010 is likely to prove "as difficult as 2009," with Europe expected among the slowest areas to recover worldwide

• Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) upgraded Western Union (NYSE:WU) shares to "outperform" from "neutral"

• Citigroup (NYSE:C) warned AIG (NYSE:AIG) investors may have little left after the US government is paid back. JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) has opted for a public determination of its warrants' valuation in order to pay back government borrowings

• BMO Capital noted mildly positive data for May from Las Vegas Strip gaming revenues

Revenue plunged 42% year-over-year to $4.2 billion, steeper than the first-quarter drop of 28%, as the double blow of depressed metal prices coupled with curtailed production affected performance. The industrial bellwether recorded quarterly gross margin of 6.6%, though a sequential improvement of 650 basis points, but still way below the year-ago figure of 21%.

Aluminum makers have been hit hard by the global economic downturn, which has affected demand from key customers such as automotive, commercial transportation construction and aerospace industries. Alcoa responded to the scenario by slashing production by about 20% and initiating a massive cost cutting program thereby generating $1 billion in savings through the first half of the year.

Meanwhile, Alcoa reported negative free cash flow of $90 million in the quarter, which was well below the positive free cash flow of $211 million in the year-ago period. However, the result was a significant improvement over the first-quarter when it posted negative free cash flow of $742 million. The company also said that it incurred capital expenditure of $418 million in the quarter, compared to $796 million last year and $471 million in the previous quarter. Alcoa has curtailed its capital expenditure targets by about 48% to $1.8 billion in 2009 and further by 53% to $850 million in 2010.

Looking ahead, the company feels there are some positive signals as aluminum prices have climbed 9% from first-quarter levels, which is likely to have an impact on the third-quarter performance. The recent stimulus by the US government is expected to revive the demand for automobiles and in turn aluminum. However, the continuing sluggishness in aerospace and industrial gas turbines industry will continue to weigh on performance. Moreover, the demand from China is likely to be short-lived as the country becomes self-sustaining in the production of the metal.

Among the number of economic posts that are due today, investors are likely to take a cue from Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy announcement that is due at 2.15 ET.  Expectations are that the central bank will hold the interest rates steady.  Also, May new home sales report is due out after the start of trading.  Monday saw increased risk-aversion in the market after the World Bank's report and the Vix volatility measure jumped 11.4%. 

But as governments across the world have geared up to prevent a collapse of the financial system, and a full-blown depression has been avoided, investors will now look toward the Fed for guidance on its exit strategy, on any expansion of its $300 billion Treasury purchase plan, as well as its views on rising yields. A bullish view form the Fed would likely put equities back on track to resume its three-month rally.

Among S&P sector groupings, six recorded moderate declines yesterday, with utilities down 1.0%, consumer services off 0.7%, consumer goods off 0.3%, industrials and tech down 0.2%, and health care off 0.1%.  Basic material sector shares jumped 1.9% and oil and gas edged up 0.7%  Financials, taking a cue from FBR Capital's raised earnings projections and price target on Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), advanced 1.4%.

According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales gave further evidence that housing may be stabilizing as falling prices, increased foreclosure activity and government tax breaks attracted buyers, sending sales 2.4% higher in May, though slightly lower than an expected 2.6% increase.

The fund invests in the stocks of large companies with market-capitalization values generally of at least $6 billion at the time of purchase. In addition, it may invest up to 20% of its assets in foreign securities. The fund is non-diversified.

Allergan Inc. (AGN), Visa Inc. (V) and Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) are among the top holdings at the fund.

UBS Global Equity A (BNGEX) seeks to maximize total US dollar return, consisting of capital appreciation and current income.

The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of US and foreign equities, primarily large capitalization stocks of major developed countries. It utilizes a globally integrated investment process intended to uncover undervalued markets, currencies, sectors and securities.

Nicholas Melhuish has been lead manager at the fund since January 2008. The fund has an expense ratio of 1.25%.

UBS PACE Government Securities Fixed Income A (PFXAX) seeks current income. The fund primarily invests in government fixed income securities.

While it can invest in US government and other bonds of varying maturities, the fund normally limits portfolio "duration" within two years of the effective duration of its benchmark index. As of January 2009, its portfolio turnover was 970%.

Unit holders have to make a minimum initial investment of $1,000 to enter this Zacks#1 Rank ("Strong Buy") fund. The fund has topped the total returns of its benchmark index in the last 1-, 3- and 5-year periods.

U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street with Dow futures down 94 points, or 1.1%, at 8,696.

Friday saw a quiet trading week coming to a halt, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average joined the S&P and Nasdaq in positive territory for the year.  The Dow, which has risen in 12 of the last 14 weeks, gained 28 points, or 0.3%, to close above its 2008 finish of 8,776.39.  The S&P ended the day flat and Nasdaq recorded a modest decline.  Decision by ten financial firms to repay US government funds was an indication that the worst of the credit crisis is over.  However, spiraling yields on government bonds and rising commodity prices kept sentiments under check. Dollar prices, however, got some boost following positive comments from Russia's finance minister and commodity-based stocks and oil prices declined.  

At the weekend meeting of G8 finance ministers in Italy, Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin remarked that dollar's status as the world's main reserve currency was likely to continue in the near term.  The G8 finance ministers signaled that the worst of the financial crisis is over, raising the need for talks on central banks' upcoming exit strategies. However, they stopped short of painting a rosy picture, saying, "...the situation remains uncertain and significant risks remain to economic and financial stability". According to US Treasury Secretary Geithner, however, "I don't think we're at the place yet where we can say we have a recovery in place".

Hartford Financial (NYSE:HIG), which has asked for a $3.4 billion US Treasury aid, announced plans to raise $750 million through a stock sale to boost its capital position. 10-year government bond yields pulled back from their recent highs and declined to 3.75% from 3.80%.

Comments from the annual Paris Air Show pointed to an increasingly difficult environment for commercial aircraft manufacturers, with airlines looking at two straight years of losses.  Despite a contested election in Iran, profit-taking and positive US dollar statements from Japan and Russia sent commodity-based stocks lower this morning, as oil prices sank to $71 per barrel.

Key talks scheduled this week include Fed Governor Duke today on responses to the financial crisis; Fed Governor Warsh on economic policy Tuesday, Bernanke at the financial literacy summit on Wednesday, and Treasury Secretary Geithner Thursday on financial regulation.

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=4579.

Here are highlights from Friday's Analyst Blog:

2 New REIT IPOs

Two new recent REIT IPOs launched in June. Government Properties Income Trust (GOV) began trading earlier this month. The company priced 10 mm shares @ $20.00 per share. The company is a subsidiary of HRPT Properties Trust, an office REIT based in Massachusetts. HRPT owns 49.9% of GOV.

GOV will focus on owning office properties leased to the US government. The company currently has 29 office properties with 3.3 million square feet. 25 of the company's properties are leased to the US government, and the remainder are leased to various state governments.

Cypress Sharpridge Investments (CYS) priced 9.1 mm shares @ $11.00 per share on June 11. Cypress invests exclusively in agency fixed and adjustable rate RMBS, which are mortgages guaranteed by the US government or a government agency, Freddie Mac (FRE), Fannie Mae (FNM).

LoopNet Market Weakens

The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book this week, and the news for LoopNet (LOOP), which operates an online marketplace for commercial real estate, remains challenging.

Commercial real estate transactions remain at historically low levels, and we expect this trend to continue to put pressure on LoopNet's operations.

The Fed noted that "commercial real estate markets continued to weaken across all Districts." This is certainly not a positive sign for LoopNet's business, and the lack of transaction activity is our primary concern regarding the company's outlook.

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Citigroup Inc. (C) finally agreed to bolster its common equity position by swapping $58 billion of preferred stock on Wednesday in a move that will make the federal government its largest shareholder.

Chief Executive Vikram Pandit said "Following completion of the exchange offers, Citi will be among the best capitalized banks in the world." As per the highly diluted exchange offer, the ailing bank will convert a part of the Treasury's $25 billion preferred stock into common shares giving the US government a 34% stake in the company.

Citi had issued these preferred shares to the federal government while taking $45 billion under the Troubled Asset Relief Program at the height of the financial crisis. When regulatory stress tests showed last month that Citi needed a $5.5 billion buffer in case of future losses, Citi chose to convert preferred shares to meet the shortfall.

The exchange with a $3.25 per share conversion rate is expected to close around July 30 and will increase the ailing banking giant's shares outstanding by 75%.

Citi shares were up nearly 4% to $3.54 at noon after touching an intraday high of $3.59 earlier in the session on the New York Stock Exchange.

I have added the piece below (with my emphasis) ...

Let me attempt, perhaps foolhardily, to map out a scenario of how the global economic crisis could evolve in continental Europe.

Even if we assume a recovery elsewhere, Europe’s economy may be stuck at low growth for some time. To understand why, it is perhaps best to look at sectoral balances for households, companies and the public sector.

The current account can be expressed as the difference between national savings and investments. Of the world’s 10 largest economies, the US, the UK and Spain used to run the largest current account deficits before the crisis. The US household sector has been shifting from a negative savings rate before the crisis to a positive rate of 4 per cent of disposable income now. The US corporate sector used to have a large negative savings rate, but this has almost disappeared. So far, the increase in net savings in the US private sector has been balanced by increased borrowing from the US government.

I am making three assumptions: the first is that the return to a positive US household savings rate is permanent – even under a scenario of a strong economic recovery. US households will take time to repair their balance sheets after the housing and credit disaster. Second, I also expect US companies not to return to the high level of borrowings that prevailed before the crisis. Third, I expect the US government to reduce its deficit after 2010. The recent rise in long-term bond yields should serve as a reminder that deficits cannot go on rising forever.

Taking all three factors together, the US will shift from a strongly negative current account balance towards neutrality, perhaps even a small surplus for a short period. I expect similar shifts in the UK and Spain at different magnitudes.

Among countries with large current account surpluses, the three biggest are China, Japan and Germany. I am focusing on Germany here. The German household sector will maintain its high savings rate. The German government increased its deficit during the crisis, but is now looking for a quick fiscal exit strategy. The Bundestag has recently voted through a constitutional balanced-budget clause, which requires cuts in the deficit almost right away. Japan will probably maintain its larger fiscal deficit for longer, but if we take Germany, China and Japan together, we will not see a sufficient and sustained fiscal expansion to compensate for the sectoral shifts elsewhere.

Global current account surpluses and deficits add up to zero. So if everybody is saving more, who will be dissaving? It will have to be the corporate sector in the countries with large net exports. So if the US, the UK and Spain are heading for a more balanced current account in the future, so will the surplus countries.

The current account balance can also be expressed as the sum of the trade balance, net earnings on foreign assets, and unilateral financial transfers. In several countries, including the US and Germany, the gap between exports and imports serves as a good proxy for the current account. A fall in the trade deficit in the US, UK and Spain implies a fall in the combined trade surplus elsewhere. And as some of the shifts in the US and the UK are likely to be structural, this will have long-term effects on others. In particular, it means the export model on which Germany, China and Japan rely, could suffer a cardiac arrest.

What about the argument that a large part of German exports goes to the rest of the eurozone? This is true, but there are imbalances within the eurozone too. Spain has been running a current account deficit of close to 10 per cent of gross domestic product. As that comes down, so will Germany’s equally unsustainable intra-eurozone surplus.

Through what mechanism will this export-sector meltdown come about? My guess is that in Europe it will happen through a violent increase in the euro’s exchange rate against the US dollar, and possibly the pound and other free-floating currencies.

Exchange rate devaluation would greatly help the US and others to reduce their current account deficits, but it will impair the economic recovery in countries with large trade surpluses and free-floating exchange rates. Last week’s remarks by Angela Merkel, who criticised the Federal Reserve and other central banks for running inflationary policies, sharpened investor perceptions of transatlantic policy divergence and decoupling. Many investors are now starting to bet on a strong appreciation of the euro – the last thing Ms Merkel wants.

Neither Germany nor Japan is politically equipped to deal with an exchange rate shock. China may continue to manage its exchange rate, but the Europeans are much less likely to intervene in foreign exchange markets. For the time being, the governments of the classic export nations cling on to their export-based economic model, the model they know best. Their only strategy, if you call it that, is to hope for a miraculous bail-out from the US consumer – which is not going to happen this time.

If my predictions prove correct, Germany will be down and out for a long time with a huge and still unresolved banking crisis, an overshooting exchange rate and lower net exports, presided over by politicians who panic about domestic inflation. This will not end well.

Really, what people need to think about here is the important of deleveraging on a macroeconomic level and what this will mean for aggregate global demand. As I have pointed out before, emerging markets such as Brazil, Turkey, India, Chile, etc are coming (and fast too), but will they be able to provide enough capacity of to suck up the massive increase in desired savings we are going to observe? Well, this is of course only one of the questions here and what we really need is a sound theoretical framework to explain all this and as you might have guessed by now it is crucial that we allow demographics to enter the equation as a driving force for the propensity (desire) to run an external surplus and thus to maintain excess savings vis-à-vis the rest of the world.

If you add the effects of the continuing demographic shifts to the obvious need for economies such as the UK, the US, etc to correct (regardless of underlying demographis) you end up with a problem and specifically a problem of excess saving relative to the willingness and ability to absorb these savings through aggregate demand or if you will productive investment. In terms of (wonkish) economic theory we can think about ageing on a macroeconomic level as the crowding towards one end of the intertemporal spectrum of consumption and saving. Consequently, one can expect (and show) why ageing economies, in stead of simply accepting the inevitable decline through dissaving, will have an intertemporal preference to push forward dissaving (consumption) relative to maintaining a surplus on their external accounts as a cushion againts dissaving. 

I will have much more on the theoretical front here as we move forward.