President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team is reportedly putting the finishing touches on an economic recovery plan that could run from $675 billion to $1 trillion, though many experts believe the program will most like range between $700 billion and $800 billion.

Briefings for top congressional Democrats were to start either over the weekend or today (Monday), a senior transition-team official told The Associated Press late last week. President-elect Obama is slated to meet today with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., in a Democratic strategy session that is likely to focus on the economic recovery package.

It’s time to look forward, not back. The 111th Congress meets tomorrow (Tuesday), and a comprehensive economic stimulus package is at the top of its agenda.  Hopefully, the lawmakers can put partisan bickering aside (fat chance) and have a bill in place for President-elect Barack

...

BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE:BHP) is getting stronger, says Horacio Marquez, even as commodity prices slump. With its low costs and diversified operations, the natural resources producer is well positioned to ride out the credit crisis. And when commodity prices rebound next year, Horacio says BHP will lead the recovery. He recommends buying shares at today’s distressed prices, and holding for big long-term profits.

This from Money Morning:

With BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE:BHP), it’s a case of the strong getting stronger and possibly even running away from the pack.

Back in 2001, BHP Ltd. and Billiton PLC merged to form BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s leading diversified resources group. And it never looked back.

Now, the lowest-cost natural-resources producer with the broadest portfolio of offerings, BHP superbly positioned itself to weather the current global downturn. Indeed, back in June the company reported its seventh-consecutive

...

If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right - and I have every reason to believe that he will - then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American companies will be

...

Gold hit two historic milestones in 2008. First, in early March, the “yellow metal” hit its all-time high of $1,030 an ounce. Just three months later, the price of gold for December delivery had plummeted to $681 an ounce, a 21-month low and 33.9% drop from its record high. Most gold bugs were equal parts puzzled and broken-hearted.

The world’s stock markets tanked, as did some of its biggest economies. In such an environment, they thought, gold should have risen. After all, gold is widely considered to be a safe-haven investment when everything else is spiraling south.

However, Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson – an investment banker with more than 25 years’ experience on Wall Street and a leading expert on the international financial markets – understood perfectly what other investors did not.

“Gold is not a safe haven against recession,” said

...

Right now, the conventional wisdom seems to be that the United States is looking at a “U-shaped” recession and recovery. Output declined gently in the third quarter, is dropping sharply now and will continue dropping sharply in the first and possibly the second quarter of the New Year, finally bottoming out and beginning a slow recovery thereafter.

That’s the natural pattern that most recessions follow. However, this has been a pretty unnatural recession, with a number of highly artificial actions undertaken to fight it, meaning we must plan for the possibility that it won’t be a “U” pattern, but will instead follow a less-frequently seen pattern.

When you think about it, the alphabet presents a number of fun shapes, patterns or trajectories that an economic cycle might follow. There’s a slightly slanting J - a shallow downturn followed by an energetic, near-vertical upswing. There’s an L - a descent into the

...

Joining a chorus of ailing U.S. automakers, Toyota Motor Co. (TM) yesterday (Monday) forecast its first operating loss in 71 years on plummeting demand and sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen. The announcement prompted Moody’s Investors Service to consider downgrading the company’s top-rated credit.

But the news may have bigger implications for Japan’s entire economy, as the country’s exports continue to take a beating from sagging worldwide demand for its products.

Japanese exports plunged 26.7% in November from a year ago. Shipments to the U.S. slid an unprecedented 34%, Japan’s Finance Ministry said. A strong yen, which makes Japanese goods more expensive, combined with deflated consumer spending, is hammering Japanese exporters.

Toyota will post a $1.7 billion (150 billion yen) loss in the year through March, it said in a statement, scrapping a previous forecast of a $6.6 billion. The last time Toyota posted an operating loss

...

It was cloudy in the Algerian city of Oran on Wednesday…and a fairly pleasant 14 degrees in the open air… But the assembled leaders of the OPEC oil exporters’ cartel must have been feeling rather hot under the collar. Since hitting a peak of $147 in July this year, the price of oil has fallen by about $100. That has put the oil exporting countries under a huge amount of pressure. And now they are determined to drive the price of oil back up again.

Global oil production is set to fall sharply

On Wednesday, the cartel announced that it will slash daily oil production by 2.46 million barrels a day. That’s OPEC’s biggest production cut ever. What’s even more extraordinary is that some of the big the non-OPEC producers are now coordinating their production cuts with the cartel.

The Russians attended the OPEC meeting and they may cut announce their own

...

Here are three things you can buy now to capitalize on spiking unemployment, crashing banks and the tumbling dollar. Earlier this week, Chairman Bernanke and his cronies on the U.S. Federal Reserve did the unthinkable, indeed the unimaginable.

In an effort to demonstrate how serious they are about this whole “recession thing,” they stated that their new interbank loan rate target was zero. Zip. Nada.

When asked if this meant they had run out of bullets, Bernanke implied they could always simply inject money directly into the system by buying billions of dollars worth of Treasury bonds.

This is actually a peculiar thought, because Treasury bonds are the one asset that is actually in demand these days (whereas dollar demand is actually rather tepid).

In fact, Chairman Bernanke’s rather alarming statement caused the U.S. dollar to fall against the euro by the biggest amount in

...

Remember the good ol' days (circa June 2007) when the £1 got you $2 (eventually topping out at $2.11); now we have a new pairing on the horizon: £1 = €1. It's not there yet, but this relationship has left the realm of the calculated and entered the crazy world of the emotional. It will end in tears for some and joy for others, but speculators need only apply. br /br /span class="fullpost"From the a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ddbc5f48-cd48-11dd-9905-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1"FT/a:br /br /blockquoteSterling sank to 95.5p against the euro for the first time amid rising speculation that the Bank of England will follow the US Federal Reserve and cut rates to virtually zero.br /br /The speed of sterling’s fall has been gathering momentum.br /br /Last week it fell by 1.25 per cent on a trade-weighted basis but this week it has taken only three days – Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday – to fall ...

President-elect Barack Obama yesterday (Thursday) named Mary L. Schapiro – a strong proponent of protections for individual investors – to head the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission when his administration takes office next month, the biggest of three nominations with potential financial crisis implications.

And in the latest addition to his Obamanomics plan, the president-elect has also proposed a massive stimulus package of as much as $775 billion over the next two years as part of a historic infusion that’s aimed at overhauling America’s infrastructure, schools, broadband networks and energy use, a Congressional source told MarketWatch.com yesterday.

But making the Schapiro nomination official was considered a key move. In its Thursday morning issue, Money Morning reported that Schapiro had been chosen and that an official announcement would be made later in the day. And that’s just what happened.

Obama named

...