The U.S. economy shed 693,000 jobs in December, a showing that was far worse than economists had expected and that may even have been the biggest monthly loss of jobs in more than 30 years, analysts said of a closely watched survey of business employment released yesterday (Tuesday).

The monthly ADP Employer Services (ADP) survey - which tracks private non-farm payroll employment - stunned economists, showing a surprising increase from the 476,000 jobs lost in November.

The decline was the worst in the history of the survey, which began reporting in 2001. And if the findings are matched by the official government jobs report, due out Friday, it would be the biggest employment drop since the U.S. recession of 1975.

“This is an eye-poppingly bad number,” Art Hogan, the New York-based chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. (JEF), told Bloomberg News. “The economy is in

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If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right - and I have every reason to believe that he will - then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American companies will be

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New home construction fell in November by the largest amount in a quarter-century, as builders slashed production while facing the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression.

However, a new blizzard of government money may be coming to your neighborhood, and it promises to be a true bailout for the masses, not just for those in foreclosure or real financial difficulty.

Tight credit and lending markets, rising foreclosures, and surging unemployment figures have homebuyers on the sidelines, pummeling the fortunes of homebuilders such as D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM) and Centex Corp. (CTX)

“It is going to be a very cold winter indeed for homebuilders,” Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist for forecasting firm MFR Inc., wrote in a note to clients Monday, MSNBC reported.

And the numbers are grim.

The U.S. Commerce Department yesterday (Tuesday) reported

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Dragged down by plunging gasoline prices and an auto industry struggling for survival, retail sales fell by 1.8% in November for a record fifth straight month, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

But a historic drop in retail gasoline prices and auto sales may have exaggerated the decline.  Filling-station sales mirrored the recent drop in prices from $4 a gallon in July to less than $2 a gallon recently. Auto sales fell 2.8%, confirming automakers’ assertions that business had sunk to the lowest levels in decades.

Excluding gasoline, which fell by almost 15%, retail sales fell just 0.2%.

In fact, without sales of autos, gasoline and building materials, sales actually rose 0.5%, the most since May.

“The financial markets were braced for a horrific retail sales report for November, but the numbers were actually not so bad,” Mark Vitner, a senior economist for Wachovia Corp. (

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This week’s economic reports will be highlighted by Friday’s unemployment report, which analysts expect will illustrate the 11th straight month of declining job ranks in the U.S. economy.

Non-farm payroll employment fell by 240,000 in October, and the unemployment rate jumped to 6.5%, up from 6.1% the month before, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in early November.

October’s drop in payroll employment followed declines of 127,000 in August and 284,000 in September, according to revised BLS reports. Employment has fallen by 1.2 million in the first 10 months of 2008, with more than half of that decrease occurring in August, September and October. In October, job losses continued in manufacturing, construction and several service-providing industries. Conversely, the healthcare and mining sectors saw their job ranks grow.

And it’s going to get much worse before it gets better, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) has predicted. Goldman Sachs

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This week’s economic reports will be highlighted by Friday’s unemployment report, which analysts expect will illustrate the 11th straight month of declining job ranks in the U.S. economy. Non-farm payroll employment fell by 240,000 in October, and the unemployment rate jumped to 6.5%, up from 6.1% the month before, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in early November. October’s drop in payroll employment followed declines of 127,000 in August and 284,000 in September, according to revised BLS reports. Employment has fallen by 1.2 million in the first 10 months of 2008, with more than half of that decrease occurring in August, September and October. In October, job losses continued in manufacturing, construction and several service-providing industries. Conversely, the healthcare and mining sectors saw their job ranks grow....

If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. And it could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right - and I have every reason to believe that he will - then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American

...

BASF Halts 80 Factories; Oil Prices Slide to $53 a Barrel; Chinese Automakers Ask for Gov’t Aid; October Housing Starts Hit 49-Year Low; Honeywell Lands Engine Deal; Fed Sees Year-long Recession; Holiday Sales and Traffic to Plummet; BJ’s Profit Jumps 24%

The world’s largest chemical company, BASF SE (ADR:BASFY), lowered its profit forecast and announced plans to halt operations at 80 factories. The Ludwigshafen-based company cited reduced orders from the auto, construction and textile industries, Bloomberg reported. Oil prices continue sliding, as U.S. crude fell to $53.30 a barrel yesterday (Wednesday) – the lowest price since January 2007. Oil has dropped almost two-thirds from its record $147 a barrel in July, ...

Friday November 14, 2008 Navivest

The U.S. Commerce Department today reported that retail sales for the month of October fell by the largest amount since they started keeping score.

According to the Commerce Department, advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.7 billion.

This translates into a decline of 2.8% from September to October. If automobile sales are not factored in, the decline was 2.2%

Economists had been looking for retail sales with the sales of automobiles factored out, to show a decline of 1.0% from September and a decline of 1.9% with auto sales included.

This portends more bad news for the economy, as it shows that consumer spending, which makes up the bulk of the U.S economy, continues to slow and to do so at an alarming rate.

Tags: Retail Sales 

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By all reasonable measures, we are already in a recession, says Shah Gilani. Deflation has become today’s number one threat. But massive government rescues mean another bout of inflation looms on the horizon. Shah says investors should look to short vulnerable stocks in 2009. But in 12-18 months, they should be prepared for a “generational opportunity” to make a fortune.

This from Money Morning:

If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices,

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