Travis Berge and Oscar Jorda of the University of California, Davis have an interesting new paper on statistical criteria for distinguishing economic expansions from recessions.

Berge and Jorda evaluate rules of the form that would declare the economy to be in a recession when some indicator Yt falls below a specified threshold c, for example, saying that the economy is in a recession whenever GDP growth comes in below -0.6%. For any choice of the threshold c, there is some observed fraction of observations for which the economy wasn't in a recession and yet Yt was less than c (the false positive rate), and a fraction of the time when the economy was in a recession and Yt was less than c (the true positive rate). By choosing a lower value for c, there will be fewer false positives and fewer true positives.

The receiver operating characteristics curve

Today we are featuring top-performing “Health" equity mutual funds, which primarily invest in equity securities of healthcare and related companies.

Investors can find such funds by checking out the entire list of the Zacks #1 Rank Health Equity Funds.

2 Excellent Samples

Franklin Strategic Biotechnology A (FBDIX) seeks capital appreciation. The fund was incepted in September 1997 and is managed by Franklin Advisers.

The fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in equity securities of biotechnology companies and discovery-research firms worldwide, including therapeutics, drug delivery, gene therapy and other select medical companies.

The fund invests a substantial portion of its assets in equity securities of smaller capitalization companies and invests a small portion of its assets in private or illiquid securities. The fund offers dividends and capital gains annually.

Evan McCulloch is lead manager of the fund since September 15, 1997. He specializes in research and analysis of the health care industry

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Michael Ehrmann and Panagiota Tzamourani (European Central Bank): Memories of high inflation, September 2009. Inflation has been well contained over the last decades in most industrialized countries. This implies, however, that memories of high inflation are likely to fade, because over time larger parts of the population have never experienced high inflation, whereas those who have might forget. This paper tests whether memories of high inflation affect agents’ preferences about the importance attached to price stability, using a large database covering over 52,000 survey responses from 23 countries over the years 1981-2000. It finds that memories of hyperinflation are there to last, whereas those of less drastic inflation experiences tend to erode after around 10 to 15 years. The recent decline in

Cepheid, a diagnostics company focused on the biothreat market, last week made a joint announcement with Instrumentation Laboratory (IL), a worldwide developer, manufacturer and distributor of vitro-diagnostics instruments, reporting that Cepheid has received clearance from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) to market its Xpert(R) HemosIL(R) FII & FV test.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP), between 300,000 and 600,000 people have deep-vein thrombosis, or blood clots; additionally, 5 percent to 8 percent of people have thrombophilia, a condition leading to increased risk of thrombosis. Cepheid’s Xpert HemosIL FII and FB test detects thrombophilia, delivering results in roughly 30 minutes. Cepheid said IL’s experience in the market will allow for time-efficient testing, ultimately benefiting physicians and their patients.

“The Xpert HemosIL FII & FV test is the first product developed in conjunction with our partnering model to be marketed in the U.S.,” John Bishop, Cepheid’s CEO

PWRM, Power 3 Medical Products Inc, PWRM.OB

STEM, StemCells, Inc.

DrStockPick.com Report!

Dr Stock Pick HOT News & Alerts!

PWRM, Power 3 Medical Products Inc. and STEM, StemCells, Inc., Tracking

The Footprints of Disease

Thursday September 10, 2009

************************************************************** STEM, StemCells, Inc. to Initiate First Ever Neural Stem Cell Trial in Myelination Disorder

STEM is focused on the development and commercialization of cell-based technologies. In its therapeutic product development programs, STEM is targeting diseases of the central nervous system and liver. StemCells’ lead product candidate, HuCNS-SC® cells (purified human neural stem cells), is in clinical development for the treatment of two fatal neurodegenerative disorders that

The University of California may say I'm just taking a few days off. That's not how I see it.

Reader JG asks my position on this story from the Sacramento Bee:

Some University of California professors are so peeved that UC's Office of the President has forbidden them from taking furloughs on teaching days that they're planning to walk out on their classes later this month. The date they've chosen-- Sept. 24-- is the first day of class at several UC campuses, including UC Davis.

Professors advocating for the walkout say they can make political inroads by forcing students to feel the impact of budget cuts prompting the furloughs.

"Instructional furloughs pressure the state to cease defunding the UC system," says a letter calling for the walkout.

"We cannot allow either the California legislature or the Office of the President to proceed as though cuts to public education do not have

Biomoda, Inc.

(Public, OTC:BMOD)

StocksHaven Investments profiles one of the most promising up and coming small cap biotech companies, Biomoda Inc, which has established a medical breakthrough for early lung cancer detection. It is a development-stage company. The Company is an invitro diagnostics company that develops assays, or tests, to detect cancer. These assays are performed in clinical reference laboratories using body-fluid samples. This technology is based on a licensed patent from Los Alamos National Laboratories. The technology is based on a molecule that has an affinity to bind with cancer cells and it fluoresces red under ultra violet light. It is a porphyrin molecule. This technology works with a range of cell types. The Company is in the process of developing a line of assays for a variety of cancers based on adaptations of this technology. Biomoda’s first product

DAVIS, CA — (Marketwire) — 08/20/09 — Octus Energy (OTCBB: OCTI) today announced its affiliation with two University of California, Davis energy efficiency research centers, the California Lighting Technology Center (CLTC) and the Western Cooling Efficiency Center (WCEC). As an affiliate member, Octus will collaborate with CLTC and WCEC to develop and deploy the Octus Smart Energy Platform (OctusSEP), focused on commercializing innovative and highly efficient lighting and cooling products and systems.

“Smart energy is a dynamic, vibrant, high-growth industry, and CLTC and WCEC are the premier centers of excellence propelling the energy efficiency industry,” said Chris Soderquist, Octus CEO. “Their hands-on, creative, inclusive approach to moving cutting-edge technologies from the lab to the marketplace amplifies Octus’ commercialization activities. With their assistance, we will expedite and optimize the development of OctusSEP, while forging relationships with utilities, regulators, manufacturers and key customers.”

The OctusSEP is a comprehensive energy management system combining

eDOORWAYS Corp. solidified its plans to introduce a brand new idea to the World’s current internet revenue models with the delivery of its “Power Keys” platform. The company has engaged Real Time Data of Orange County, CA in a software development agreement that will allow eDOORWAYS to license and customize Real Time Data’s proprietary source code for use with eDOORWAYS’ “Power Keys.”

Real Time Data focuses on custom software development, specifically real time systems that contain large databases requiring high throughput and high reliability. Their clients include Technicolor Creative Services, the University of California Berkeley, Neighborhood Housing Services of America and the Bank of American Samoa. Real Time Data has also provided custom development services for ICL Systems whose vehicle logistics reporting system is used by a multitude of vehicle manufacturers including Honda, Volkswagen, Toyota Canada, and Mercedes.

The software company

Prana Biotechnology Ltd., an Australian company established to commercialize research into Alzheimer’s Disease and other major age-related neurogenerative disorders, today announced that it has secured a key patent protecting its clinical drug (PBT2) with the European Patent Office. The patent covers the composition of matter of selected families of 8-Hydroxyquinoline compounds, including PBT2, and the uses of such compounds for the treatment of neurological diseases, such as Alzheimer’s Disease and Huntington’s Disease.

PBT2, the company’s lead Alzheimer’s Disease compound, has already demonstrated safety and tolerability in early Alzheimer’s Disease patients in a Phase IIa study. It has also shown improvement in executive function, an important aspect of cognitive performance, along with reducing the levels of Abeta in the spinal fluid of patients. Abeta is a key protein associated with the disease. PBT2 is designed to improve cognition by preventing the formation of toxic forms of the Abeta protein in the