Under the Lot 7 production contract, the company will build two Block 30 systems and three Block 40 systems for the Aeronautical Systems Group at Wright Patterson AFB in Dayton, Ohio. The award also includes a ground station consisting of a launch and recovery element and a mission control element, plus two additional sensor suites that will be retrofitted into previous production aircraft. The contract runs through 2011.

The company will deliver in 2010 the two Block 30 aircraft equipped with the Enhanced Integrated Sensor Suite (EISS) that provides electro-optical/infrared and synthetic aperture radar imaging capabilities. These aircraft will also be retrofitted to incorporate the production Airborne Signals Intelligence Payload.

The HALE UAS, Global Hawk can soar at altitudes of more than 60,000 feet for more than 32 hours and send near-real-time reconnaissance imagery and signals intelligence data to air, ground, and sea forces. It can fly three times as long and operates at a fraction of the cost per flight hour of its manned counterpart. Compared to other similar UAS, a single Global Hawk collects the same information as 18 smaller medium-altitude UAS.

Global Hawks are currently flown in four locations across the globe: Beale Air Force Base in Northern California, Edwards Air Force Base in Southern California, Patuxent River Naval Air Station in Maryland, and a forward operating location in support of Overseas Contingency Operations in the Persian Gulf.

The recession is over! In the third quarter GDP grew by 2.8% (3.5%), slightly below (comfortably ahead) of expectations for 2.9% (3.0%) growth. This is a huge improvement over the 0.7% decline in the second quarter and the 6.4% plunge in the first quarter.

The internals of the report were strong as well, although it appears that much of the growth came from things like the Cash for Clunkers program and the extraordinary levels of support that are currently being given to the housing sector.

Growth Rates

The overall 2.8% (3.5%) growth of GDP was almost matched by its biggest component, Personal Consumption expenditures, or PCE, which grew 2.9% (3.4%), a big improvement over the 0.9% decline in the second quarter and the 0.6% increase in the first three months of the year.

It is important to note that during the recession, consumer spending declined far less than did overall GDP, especially in the first quarter, so the consumer was becoming a much bigger part of the overall economy. This is not healthy over the long run, but at this point I think people are happy to get some growth where ever we can find it

Now, you might wonder, what caused the recession to be so nasty last winter when Consumer spending wasn’t really all that bad? The answer is that Investment really fell of a cliff. The good news is that it is starting to come back.

Fixed investment is broken into two parts, Non-Residential or business investment and Residential investment, which is mostly homebuilding.

Overall Fixed investment rose by 0.3% (2.3%) following declines of 12.5% in the 2Q and 39.0% in the 1Q. Business investment, however, continued to decline, but at a much slower rate, falling 4.1% (2.5%) after 9.6% and 39.2% declines in the 2Q and 1Q, respectively. With massive amounts of unused capacity it is not surprising that businesses are cutting back on their capital spending still.

Spending on Equipment and Software (E&S) on the other hand is starting to come back, if only feebly, rising 2.3% (1.1%) after a 4.9% decline in the 2Q and a 36.4% plunge in the 1Q. Look for some stability in this line going forward as the new Microsoft operating system will probably generate a new PC cycle, but with capacity utilization still around 70% I would not expect a boom in orders for new factory equipment.

The real star of fixed investment though came on the residential side, which rose 19.5% (23.4%). This is the first increase in almost four years, and follows declines of 23.3% in the 2Q and 38.2% in the 1Q. The long string of declines had brought residential investment to a record low share of GDP. The extraordinary support of the housing sector by the government, including the first time buyer tax credit, the Fed buying up $1.25 Trillion of Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) backed paper to artificially suppress mortgage rates and the FHA acting like the old New Century Financial or Washington Mutual on their worst days have played a big role in the turnaround. I seriously question the sustainability of it after the support is removed, and I don’t think the support can continue indefinitely.

Government spending grew by 3.1% (2.3%) in the 3Q, a big slowdown from the 6.7% increase in the 2Q, but more than the 2.6% decline in the 1Q. It was all at the Federal level where spending rose at an annual rate of  8.3% (7.9%) down from a 11.4% increase in the 2Q, but up from the 4.3% decline in the 1Q.

Remember this measure of government spending does not include spending on transfer payments like Social Security and Medicare, which are largely captured in the consumption numbers. Defense spending was the big driver -- we are still a nation fighting two wars. It grew at an annual rate of 8.3% (8.4%) down from a 14.0% rate of increase in the 2Q but up from a 5.1% decline in the 1Q.

International trade has started to rebound, and we saw an increase in both imports and exports. Increasing exports are good for GDP and increases in Imports are bad for GDP, and unfortunately imports rose more than did exports. We were able to improve our overseas sales by 17.0% (14.7%) in the 3Q -- a nice turnaround from the 4.1% decline in the 2Q and the 29.9% plunge in the 1Q. Unfortunately we also increase what we bought from overseas by 20.8% (16.4%), a big turnaround from the 14.7% decline in the 2Q and the 36.4% plunge in the first three months of the year. Keep in mind that we import a lot more than we export, so not only was the percentage increase bigger for imports, it was coming off a higher base.

Contributions to Growth

Not all components of GDP are created equal.  Some are very big, and others relatively small. Some tend to be very stable over time, and some tend to swing violently from quarter to quarter. The bigger and more volatile they are, the more they will impact the overall growth rate of GDP. Thus looking at just the percentage changes in the componenets does not tell the full story. Of the 2.8% (3.5%) total growth, how many points were added or subtracted by each part of the economy?

The biggest part of the economy is the Consumer or PCE, over all it contributed 2.07 (2.36) of the 2.80 (3.50) points of total growth. In the second quarter it caused 0.62 of the 0.70 total decline in the 2Q. In the first quarter it actually offset 0.44 points of the 6.40 total decline. In other words, excluding the consumer the economy would have contracted 6.84% rather than 6.40%.

Within consumer spending, spending on goods added 1.60 (1.79) points after subtracting 0.71 points in the 2Q and adding 0.56 points in the 1Q. Spending on durables was the main driver, adding 1.34 (1.47) points after subtracting 0.41 points in the 2Q and adding 0.28 in the 1Q.  Non durable goods added 0.26 (0.31) points after subtracting 0.29 in the 2Q and adding 0.29 in the 1Q.

Investment spending was a big swing factor in the 3Q.  It added 0.91 (1.22) points to overall growth. That is a HUGE improvement over the 3.10 point subtraction in the 2Q and the 8.98 point implosion in the 1Q.  Unfortunately. 0.87 (0.94) points of that contribution came from inventories. Inventory investment is the “worst" type of GDP growth since large increases in one quarter are usually reversed in the next quarter, or in this case, large declines being reversed upwards. 

In the 2Q inventory investment subtracted 1.42 points from overall growth and in the 1Q they subtracted 2.36 points.  Even in the 4Q they subtracted 0.64 points from growth.  Three straight quarters of sharply lower inventories is highly unusual and we were due for a bounce.  Perhaps we have one more quarter of a solid contribution from inventory investment, but I would not expect it to last much beyond that. 

Overall fixed investment added just 0.04 (0.28) points to growth, but that sure was a nice improvement over the 1.68 point subtraction and the 6.62 point disaster that was the 1Q.

However, it was not coming from the business side.  Business investment subtracted 0.40 (0.24) growth points in the 3Q, so it is still very soft, but at least it is not imploding like it was earlier in the year.  In the 2Q it subtracted 1.01 points and in the 1Q it took away 5.29 growth points.  Within business investment it was spending on structures that caused the problem with a deduction of 0.55 (0.32) growth points while spending on E&S offset 0.15 (0.08) points of that.  In the 2Q both sides of business investment were drags on the economy with investment in Commercial real estate subtracting 0.69 growth points and spending on equipment deducting 0.32 points.  The 2Q was in turn a major improvement over the 1Q disaster where spending on structures subtracted 2.28 growth points and equipment spending subtracted 3.01 points.

Housing finally helped the economy in the 3Q, adding 0.45 (0.53) points to growth, after a string of 15 straight quarters where it was a drag on the economy.  In the 2Q it was a 0.67 point drag and in the 1Q it was a 1.33 point drag.  The long decline has, however, made housing a much smaller share of the overall economy.  In the 3Q residential investment totaled only $360.9 billion, or 2.52% of the overall economy.  At the peak of the housing bubble it represented 6.34% of the overall economy.  Thus the 19.5 (23.3%) increase in residential investment had far less of an overall impact than it did in the past.

Direct government spending had a small but positive impact on overall growth in the 3Q, adding 0.63 (0.48) points a fairly significant slowdown from the 1.33 contribution in the 2Q, but better than the 0.52 point drag in the 1Q.  All the help came from Washington , not city hall or the statehouse.

The Federal government added 0.65 (0.62) growth points, down from 0.85 points in the 2Q but up from a 0.33 point drag in the 1Q.  The Pentagon was the main factor in all three quarters, with defense spending adding 0.48 (0.45) points in the 3Q following a 0.70 addition in the 2Q and a 0.27 point drag in the 1Q.  Non-defense spending was sort of a non issue, adding just 0.17 (0.17) points in the 3Q, not much difference from the 0.15 point contribution in the 2Q, and up a little bit from the slight 0.06 point drag in the 1Q.

State and Local governments are not allowed to run operating deficits, and so when faced with declining tax revenues they have to cut back, unless Uncle Sam helps them out.  Well Washington is helping, but its not enough and S&L spending was a 0.02 (0.14) point drag in the 3Q.  The Federal help was enough in the 2Q and so the contribution to growth in the 2Q was a positive 0.48 points.  In the 1Q, before the stimulus package could get much traction S&L spending was a 0.19 point drag.

Net exports had been just about the only bright spot in the first half of the year, even though it came the wrong way, from both imports and exports plunging, only with imports falling more than exports did.  That reversed in the 3Q as both showed a nice expansion, but our appetite for foreign goods outstripping the desire for U.S. goods and services abroad.  The increase in exports added 1.71 (1.49) points to growth, but the increase in imports was a 2.53 (2.01) point drag, for a net negative contribution from net exports of 0.82 (0.52) points. In the 2Q falling exports subtracted 0.45 points but plunging imports added 2.09 points, for a net imports net help to the economy of 1.64 points.

Overall

Relative to the first cut at the data, the downward revisions were broad based, with smaller contributions from all major areas of the economy, with the exception of the government.  Of particular concern is that fixed investments contribution to growth virtually disappeared.

 
Dirk van Dijk, CFA is the Chief Equity Strategist for Zacks.com. With more than 25 years investment experience he has become a popular commentator appearing in the Wall Street Journal and on CNBC. Dirk is also the Editor in charge of the market-beating Zacks Strategic Investor service.

On Monday, the 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average surged 132.79 points, or 1.29%, to 10,450.95.  The broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 14.86 points, or 1.36%, at 1,106.24 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index jumped 29.97 points, or 1.40%, to 2,176.01. Trading volume was light, with NYSE volume less than 1 billion shares, as advancing shares outran decliners by a four-to-one margin.  Wall Street’s fear gauge, the CBOE Vix, plummeted 4.6% to 21.16.

Treasuries lost ground as investors’ risk appetite grew.  A number of analyst upgrades also helped shares yesterday and after the close Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) came out with strong numbers and also announced plans to triple its repurchase plan.

Among the DJIA components, all but two gained, led by Verizon (NYSE:VZ), up 3.0%, AT&T (NYSE:T), up 2.9%, General Electric (NYSE:GE), up 2.9%, and Chevron (NYSE:CVX), up 2.6%.  A Barron's article suggested AT&T (NYSE:T) shares undervalued due to concerns its exclusive iPhone contract with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) might not be extended next year; Verizon (NYSE:VZ) shares jumped shot up on hopes the exclusivity agreement might not be extended.  And Chevron (NYSE:CVX) shares gained from the dollar’s retreat.

All ten S&P 500 industry groups advanced, led by consumer services and telecommunications, both up 2.7%, oil and gas, up 1.6%, and industrial and tech shares, both up 1.5%.

Gold prices jumped to fresh highs yesterday, before giving up some ground to settle at $1164.70, up $17.90.  Meanwhile, the greenback dropped 0.7% to 75.13 against a basket of currencies.  This afternoon's FOMC meeting minutes will be scrutinised by investors for any evidence of a timing change for its asset purchase programs.  Such considerations are also key to the trajectory for gold pricing, viewed as an inflation hedge.

Earnings reports are due from Barnes and Noble (NYSE:BKS), Borders (NYSE:BGP), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Heinz (NYSE:HNZ) and Hormel (NYSE:HRL).

Chicago, IL – November 24, 2009 – Zacks Equity Research highlights Petrobras (PBR) as the Bull of the Day and St. Jude Medical (STJ) the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Motorola Inc.(MOT), Sprint Nextel Corp.(S) and Alcatel-Lucent (ALU).

Full analysis of all these stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5506

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

Petrobras (PBR), the largest integrated energy firm in Brazil, stands to benefit from its country's economic growth and huge pre-salt oil reserves. The company recently reported a better-than-expected third-quarter, helped by strong downstream results that more than offset the sharp decline in commodity prices.

Near- to medium-term concerns include the uncertain commodity-price scenario, significant capital investment requirements, and Brazil's proposed new oil and gas regulatory framework. However, given its strong pipeline of development projects and impressive recent exploration successes, the company's long-term outlook looks compelling.

As such, we recommend an Outperform rating for Petrobras ADRs. Our six-month target price is $55 per share.

Bear of the Day:

We look for global demographic trends -- aging populations in developed nations and the rapid urbanization of developing countries -- to fuel long-term growth of St. Jude Medical (STJ). These trends give rise to growing demand for cardiovascular health care.

However, recent weaknesses in the CRM segment, particularly in the U.S., are headwinds for St. Jude in the near-term. This might force the company to lose market share to its competitors.

Earnings per share in the third quarter reached $0.59, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by one cent. However, we have chosen to downgrade the stock to an Underperform with a target price of $31.

Latest Posts on the Zacks Analyst Blog:

Motorola Boosts iDEN Business

Motorola Inc.(MOT) has decided to purchase iDEN base station assets of the privately held RadioFrame Networks Inc. The iDEN (Integrated Digital Enhanced Network) technology allows cell phone calls to move on the same network as communication from two-way radios. In general, this technology resembles walkie-talkie features on cell phones. Financial terms of this deal have not been disclosed so far. Motorola itself is the pioneer of the iDEN technology that RadioFrame had licensed for its base station products.

The main reason for this acquisition is the superior iDEN-based base station products of RadioFrame that are lower cost and more power efficient. This proposed acquisition will enhance Motorola's portfolio of multi-channel base stations products that are optimized to support non-contiguous spectrum allocations in the special mobile radio business. Motorola may use RadioFrame’s lower-cost iDEN architecture into entirely separated spectrum bands that are allocated to the wireless carriers in the international (outside the U.S.) markets. RadioFrame has a solid client base for its base station products, notable among them being Sprint Nextel Corp.(S).

RadioFrame’s base station products will be a part of Motorola’s Home and Network Mobility segment. This segment makes equipment for cable and wireless operators. Recently, industry rumors indicated that the company has decided to sell this segment for more than $4.5 billion. As of now, Home and Network Mobility is the largest segment of Motorola. In the third quarter of 2009, this segment generated more than $2 billion revenue and $199 million operating profit.

Earlier this month, Motorola’s Home and Network Mobility segment decided to purchase IPTV specialist BitBand and will do venture funding to the LTE chip making business of Sequans Communications together with Alcatel-Lucent (ALU). BitBand has more than 60 commercial IPTV deployments throughout the world and Paris based Sequans Communications has intended to demonstrate its first LTE chipset in early 2010. Whether Motorola sells its Home and Network Mobility segment or not, it seems that the company is increasingly focusing on optimizing the resources of its largest business segment.

Get the full analysis of all these stocks by going to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5507.

About the Bull and Bear of the Day

Every day, the analysts at Zacks Equity Research select two stocks that are likely to outperform (Bull) or underperform (Bear) the markets over the next 3-6 months.

About the Analyst Blog

Updated throughout every trading day, the Analyst Blog provides analysis from Zacks Equity Research about the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets.

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Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous analyst coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=5508.

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5509.

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Chicago, IL – November 24, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Halliburton Company (HAL), Schlumberger Limited (SLB), Smith International Inc. (SII), National-Oilwell Varco (NOV) and Weatherford International Ltd. (WFT).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:

U.S. Rig Count Hits 8-Month High

Producers had scaled back oil and gas drilling operations over the past several months in the midst of falling commodity prices and tighter access to credit. However, during recent weeks, there have been signs that the companies were beginning to bring rigs back on line (especially oil rigs) amid signs of economic stabilization that could drive up energy demand. This pushed the nationwide rig count above 1,100 working units for the week ended Nov. 13, the first time since March.

The overall picture, though, remains weak, particularly for natural gas, whose inventories have recently hit a new record high of 3.83 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) and is threatening to test the maximum capacity of 3.89 Tcf. The supply picture is expected to reverse in the coming months as producers bet on colder weather and the lagging effect of the sharp drop in domestic drilling activity takes hold.

Until then, we believe that natural gas woes (especially in North America) will continue to haunt energy service firms like Halliburton Company (HAL), Schlumberger Limited (SLB), Smith International Inc. (SII), National-Oilwell Varco (NOV) and Weatherford International Ltd. (WFT). These oilfield service names have seen their revenues and earnings plunge in the last few quarters on the back of lower volumes and a very competitive pricing environment. We have Neutral recommendations on all the above-mentioned companies.

Want more from Zacks Equity Research? Subscribe to the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5515.

About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

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Contact:
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Investors can find such funds by checking out the entire list of the Zacks #1 Rank Growth Equity Funds.

3 Burgeoning Picks

Barrett Growth Fund A (BGRWX) seeks to achieve long-term capital appreciation and to maximize after tax returns. It was incepted in October 2002.

The fund invests in common stocks of high quality companies that it believes have superior growth potential and stocks that can be purchased at reasonable prices. The fund generally undertakes a 'buy and hold' investment strategy in order to reduce turnover and maximize after-tax returns.

The fund has an expense ratio of 1.25%. It distributes dividends and capital gains, if any, annually.

Robert J. Milnamow has been lead manager of the fund since January 2004. Milnamow has been with Barrett Associates since 2003 and is a managing director with the firm.

Reynolds Blue Chip Growth Fund (RBCGX) was incepted in August 1988. It seeks long-term capital appreciation and, to a lesser extent current income.

The fund invests in common stocks of United States companies. Under normal market conditions, the fund primarily invests in common stocks of 'blue chip' companies. In seeking to achieve its secondary objective of current income, the fund invests in dividend-paying common stocks.

Shareholders have to make a minimum initial investment of $1,000 to enter this Zacks#1 Rank (“Strong Buy") fund. As of June 2009, it has a portfolio turnover of 516%.

Frederick L. Reynolds has been lead manager of the fund since August 1988. Previously, Reynolds spent 14 years as a general partner with Robertson, Coleman and Siebel/Montgomery Securities.

Jamestown Equity Fund (JAMEX) seeks long term growth of capital. It was incepted in December 1992.

The fund invests primarily in common stocks, preferred stocks, convertible preferred stocks and convertible bonds. Equity investments are made using fundamental analysis, proprietary models and qualitative, judgmental evaluation as selection criteria. The fund seeks financially strong, relatively large companies, which offer above average earnings and relatively modest valuations.

Shareholders have to make a minimum initial investment of $5,000 to enter this Zacks#1 Rank (“Strong Buy") fund. It has an expense ratio of 1.10%.

Charles M. Caravati, III has been lead manager of the fund since December 1992. Caravati joined Lowe, Brockenbrough & Company, Inc in 1992 and is a vice president with the firm.

Discover Many More Funds

Learn more about the new Zacks Mutual Fund Rank and discover some of the best market-beating mutual funds by browsing our mutual funds section. This part of Zacks.com offers a variety of tools, including mutual fund research, a new mutual fund screener, helpful answers to frequently asked questions and quick access to prospectuses and other information.

By applying the Zacks Rank to mutual funds, investors can find funds that not only outpaced the market in the past but are also expected to outperform going forward.

However, recent weaknesses in the CRM segment, particularly in the U.S., are headwinds for St. Jude in the near-term. This might force the company to lose market share to its competitors.

Earnings per share in the third quarter reached $0.59, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by one cent. However, we have chosen to downgrade the stock to an Underperform with a target price of $31.Zacks Investment Research

Company Description

Arena Resources, Inc. engages in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas properties in the united States. The company was founded in 200 and has a market cap of $1.58 billion.

With crude trading at elevated prices, exploration companies have fallen back into favor. This dynamic and strong third-quarter results, reported on Nov 5, has helped push shares of ARD back to the 52-week high.

Third-Quarter Results

Earnings for the quarter came in at 31 cents per share, 5 cents ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The company has beat in each of the last four quarters by an average of 2 cents, or 10%.

In a bid to expand its enhance and expand its operations, the Board of Directors approved a $27 million increase in its capital budget for 2009 to $107 million.

Estimates Rising

Estimates have generally been on the rise for the last few months. The current-year estimate has added 13 cents to $1.12. The next-year estimate is bullish, pegged at $1.75, a 57% growth projection.

Valuation

After the recent run up, shares do look a bit pricey, trading at 36X projected current-year earnings. The bullish next-year estimate helps temper the valuation a bit though.

The Chart

Shares of ARD have posted big gains over the last 8 months after bottoming out around $20 in early March. The 52-weke high is close at hand at $44.40, take a look below.

Zacks Investment Research

...the government faces a payment shock similar to those that sent legions of overstretched homeowners into default on their mortgages.

Do we really need to worry so much in the short term?

Six years ago, Jeff Frankel and I examined the implications of the borrow-and-spend policies of the Bush Administration [PDF]. We estimated the following relationship:

(1) i_t ^long = 0.001 + 1 × π_t + 0.077 E(d_t+2) + 0.280 (y_t-y_t^FE) + 0.005 i_t^* - 0.574 int_t

Adj.-R² = 0.51, N=17, Smpl 1988-2004. i is the long term interest rate on ten year bonds, π is the y/y inflation rate, E(d_t+2) is the two-year ahead expected debt-to-GDP ratio and (y_t-y_t^FE) is the output gap (both according to OECD), and i^* is the foreign interest rate, and int is foreign purchases of US Treasury debt. (This specification was also discussed in this March 2007 post.)

We can use these estimates to do a back of the envelope calculation of what happens in a year, going from end FY2009 to end FY2010, by taking the total differential of equation (1). The change will be given by:

(2) Δ i = Δ π + 0.077 Δ E(d_t+2) + 0.280 Δ (y_t-y_t^FE) - 0.574 Δ int

According to the August CBO Economic and Budget Outlook, public debt held by the public two years ahead will rise from 65.2 to 65.9 ppts of GDP (that is, end FY 2011 to end FY2012, in Summary Table 1). The OECD November Economic Outlook reports that the output gap in 2009 was -4.92 ppts of GDP, and is projected to be -5.36 in 2010. If East Asian bank purchases of Treasuries remain constant, then one finds that the inflation adjusted interest rate will rise by:

(0.659-0.652)×0.077 + (-0.0536+0.0492)×0.280 = 0.0005-0.0012 = -0.0007

That is, the interest rate would fall by 7 bps (holding expected inflation constant). In other words, real interest rates would stay roughly constant, ceteris paribus.

Now, what about foreign purchases of US treasury bills and notes? These ran about $333 billion through September [1], or about 2.3% of nominal GDP. Suppose this went to zero (!). Then real rates would rise 1.3%. Of course, one needs net foreign purchases to drop to zero, which seems to me unlikely.

Some caveats: These estimates were obtained using data that spanned a period without extraordinary Federal Reserve credit easing, and in the face of an unprecedented financial collapse. And, the relationship is not precisely estimated. But they're the estimates we -- or at least I -- have.

By the way, CBO predicts only a 0.8 ppts increase in the ten year rate going from 2009 to 2010, and an additional 0.3 ppts by 2011 (Summary Table 2).

I'll further observe that the article gives the impression that the jump in Federal debt was due to the stimulus bill. But in fact, as shown in this post, most of the debt accumulation has been accounted for by the decline in tax revenues associated with the recession.

No doubt, trouble on the fiscal front is real, and has long been brewing -- from the tax cuts of 2001 (if extended) to Medicare Part D. And, indeed, I argued for a lot more fiscal restraint when we were near full employment. [2] But, in my view, apocalypse not quite yet.

Data from the first trial – GOlimumab After Former anti-TNF (tumor necrosis factor) Therapy Evaluated in RA (GO-AFTER) revealed that patients previously treated with TNF inhibitors (adalimumab, etanercept or infliximab) responded as well as showed continued response to the drug for an entire year. At week 52, data measured by American College of Rheumatology (ACR 20) response found a 20% improvement in arthritis symptoms in 63% of patients receiving the drug while 41% of the patients achieved a 50% improvement in arthritis symptoms measured by ACR 50 response.

Results from the second trial - GOlimumab FOR subjects With Active RA Despite Methotrexate (GO-FORWARD) study proved the effectiveness of Simponi in patients with active RA despite prior treatment with methotrexate. Like the earlier trial, this trial also presented positive results for Simponi. At week 52, 64% of patients taking the drug and methotrexate achieved ACR 20 response while 25% achieved a 70% improvement in arthritis symptoms as measured by ACR 70 response. Both these studies were carried out with Simponi in 50 mg dosage as a once-monthly subcutaneous injection.

Earlier in April 2009, Simponi received approval from the US Food and Drug Administration and Health Canada approved Simponi for the treatment of moderate to severe active RA, active psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and active ankylosing spondylitis. Thereafter, in October 2009, the drug received approval from the European Commission as well.

As a reminder, on May 27, 2009 Johnson & Johnson announced an arbitration demand against Schering-Plough (now a part of Merck, MRK) requesting a ruling regarding the ex-US rights of Remicade and Simponi. J&J developed both compounds and licensed marketing rights outside the US to Schering-Plough. However, J&J contends that the merger between Schering-Plough and Merck has triggered a change of control provision in the licensing agreement, resulting in its termination, thereby returning full rights to the compounds to J&J.
 
Remicade is approved for 15 indications in the US alone including RA. Remicade generated almost $5.9 billion in worldwide revenues in 2008, including $2.1 billion in sales outside the US, which Schering-Plough booked as revenues. The pending case is of great importance to both companies given the sales contribution from the product. We are Neutral on J&J.

• Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) reported better-than-expected earnings of 28 cents a share, beating Zacks estimates by 2 cents, on revenues of $7.2 billion, which exceeded Zacks estimates of $6.85 billion

• India’s Reliance Industries bid $12 billion in cash for Lyondell Bassell when it exits bankruptcy

• Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is reportedly in discussions with News Corp. (NASDAQ:NWSA) to "de-index" the firm's news websites from Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)

• Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) announced plans to more than double the number of its bottling plants in China over the next ten years as part of its goal to triple sales to the country

• Hershey (NYSE:HSY) trust encouraged the firm to counter Kraft's (NYSE:KFT) hostile, $16.2 billion bid with its own, $17 billion offer

• According to S&P most US banks are failing to meet adequacy standards comfortably enough to avoid ratings downgrades. Both HSBC (NYSE:HBC) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) showed stronger-than-average balance sheets, with UBS (NYSE:UBS) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) well below average

Chicago, IL – November 23, 2009 – Zacks Equity Research highlights Caterpillar (CAT) as the Bull of the Day and Cost Plus, Inc. (CPWM) the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Gap Inc.(GPS), J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) and Stone Energy Corporation (SGY).

Full analysis of all these stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5506

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

Caterpillar (CAT) is a market leader in construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines. With its strong brand name, pricing power and global dealer network, we believe Caterpillar is well positioned to take advantage of the growing need for infrastructure development globally.

Though the company expects 2009 sales to decline more than 35% year-over-year, it anticipates an improvement in its top-line in 2010. The company forecasts a 10% to 25% increase in sales for 2010, compared to the midpoint of the 2009 outlook range.

Asserting its optimistic outlook, the company recently announced plans to increase its machinery prices by 2% effective January 2010. We are upgrading the stock to Outperform.

Bear of the Day:

Specialty retailer Cost Plus, Inc. (CPWM) is closing stores, cutting costs, and trying to preserve cash, but those moves will do little to reverse its weak sales trends and merchandise margins.

In addition, management's guidance for the third quarter cautioned investors to prepare for more weakness. Cost Plus expects same-store sales to decrease 6%-11% and a pre-tax loss from continuing operations of $19-$24 million.

Cost Plus is scheduled to report third quarter results on December 3. We have an Underperform rating on CPWM shares. Our six-month target price is $0.50.

Latest Posts on the Zacks Analyst Blog:

Gap’s Earnings Improve

Gap Inc.(GPS), a premier international specialty retailer, has reported healthy third quarter results despite challenging market conditions. The company reported net income of $307 million or 44 cents per share during the quarter compared to $246 million or 35 cents per share in the year-earlier quarter.

The robust earnings were primarily driven by strong sales at its low-price Old Navy segment and the highest third quarter operating margins in a decade. Net sales during the quarter were $3.59 billion compared to $3.56 billion in the year-ago quarter, largely due to a 10% increase in comparable sales across 1,060 Old Navy stores that account for about 40% of the total sales.

The Old Navy chain has benefited from the increasing preference among U.S. shoppers for lower-price and discount stores due to the continued challenging macroeconomic environment. Gross margins increased 380 basis points year-over-year to 42.5%. Operating margins during the quarter increased to 13.9% from 11.1% in the year-ago quarter due to effective cost-control measures and prudent inventory management policies.

Smucker’s Beats, Raises Guidance

J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) reported second quarter results with earnings of $1.22 per share, which was well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 99 cents. Quarterly earnings were up 21% compared to $1.01 reported in the prior-year quarter.

Net sales for the quarter grew 51.7% year-over-year, primarily due to the addition of the Folgers coffee business. Excluding Folgers, volumes increased 1%, driven by Pillsbury, Crisco oils, Jif peanut butter and Hungry Jack brands. These were partially offset by declines in canned milk, fruit spreads, foodservices and natural foods.

On a segment basis -- the U.S. retail coffee market segment posted $445.1 million in sales during the quarter. Volume also increased by approximately 5%. The continued expansion of the Dunkin' Donuts brand in the gourmet category and strong growth in traditional roast and ground coffee led to the improvement.

Stone Energy Outdoes Estimates

Stone Energy Corporation (SGY) reported third-quarter 2009 earnings of $1.06 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 66 cents and the year-earlier earnings of $1.04. The robust results were driven by increased production volumes and reduced costs.

Production during the quarter averaged 239 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day (MMcfe/d), compared to average daily production of 209 MMcfe/d in the prior quarter and 129 MMcfe/d in the year-ago quarter. This increase was primarily due to the company’s successful execution of its hydraulic rig work over program, reduced cycle time and optimization of individual well rates.

Stone expects net daily production to average 225-235 MMcfe in the fourth quarter and 210-220 MMcfe in 2009.

Get the full analysis of all these stocks by going to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5507.

About the Bull and Bear of the Day

Every day, the analysts at Zacks Equity Research select two stocks that are likely to outperform (Bull) or underperform (Bear) the markets over the next 3-6 months.

About the Analyst Blog

Updated throughout every trading day, the Analyst Blog provides analysis from Zacks Equity Research about the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets.

About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous analyst coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=5508.

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5509.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

Chicago, IL – November 23, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Pozen (POZN), Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), Bristol-Myers (BMY), AstraZeneca (AZN) and ADC Telecommunications Inc. (ADCT).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Friday’s Analyst Blog:

Pozen Initiates New Phase III

This morning, Pozen (POZN) initiated phase III studies on PA-325/40, a fixed-dose combination of 325mg enteric coated aspirin and 40mg of immediate release omeprazole. The phase III program will consist of two pivotal trials conducted under a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) agreed upon with the U.S. FDA, and one long-term safety study.

The two pivotal programs will enroll approximately 500 patients per study at over 100 sites around the U.S. The primary endpoint of the pivotal studies is the cumulative incidence of gastric ulcers over the six-month treatment period for PA32540 versus 325 mg of enteric-coated aspirin. The long-term study will enroll approximately 400 patients and assess safety over a period of one year.

Pozen is developing PA-325/40 for use in the secondary prevention of heart attacks and strokes in patients at risk for associated gastric ulcers. Aspirin is the No. 1 recommended agent for at-risk patients, with some 50 million Americans take daily aspirin therapy for secondary prevention of heart attacks and strokes.

However, according to data presented at the American College of Gastroenterology and at the American Heart Association meeting, the use of low-dose aspirin for cardiovascular disease prophylaxis is associated with a 2- to 4-fold increase in gastro-intestinal (GI) complications, including gastric ulcers. Enteric coating is not a sufficient to reduce the risk of GI bleeding, and thus the majority of patients that should be taking 325mg aspirin are non-compliant or taking suboptimal low-dose (81mg) "baby" aspirin instead.

Pozen’s PA-325/40 is designed to provide immediate-release omeprazole as a GI-protectant for patients taking full-dose 325mg daily aspirin therapy. If the phase III trials meet the primary endpoint of reduction in cumulative incidence of gastric ulcers, we expect PA-325/40 to be approved by the U.S. FDA with the full cardiovascular label claims of regular enteric-coated aspirin. This is a significant market opportunity in our view, considering less than 15% of the 50 million Americans on daily aspirin therapy are taking a GI-protectant such as omeprazole.

Recently, data from a retrospective analysis of patients that use Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) / Bristol-Myers’ (BMY) Plavix (clopidogrel) showed an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) by as much as 50% while taking a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) such as AstraZeneca’s (AZN) omeprazole (Prilosec) or esomeprazole (Nexium). The data included analysis of outcomes from 16,700 patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention and continued Plavix for 12 months after the procedure.

ADC Dips on Weak Outlook

Yesterday, after market close, ADC Telecommunications Inc. (ADCT) declared financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009. Earlier, the Board of Directors of ADC had taken a decision to change its fiscal year from Oct 31 to Sep 30. As a result, fiscal year 2009 ended on Sep 30, 2009, which means the company got only two months as its fourth quarter. The fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 would, therefore, not be comparable to either the prior-year quarter or the previous quarter. For this reason, management has presented pro forma results for the three month period ending Sep 30 and its comparable quarter.

Actual revenue of fourth quarter 2009 was $183.9 million, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $189 million. Quarterly pro forma revenue was $293.6 million, down 17.5% year-over-year. This significant decline in revenue is the result of the global economic recession across all the three business segments.

On a GAAP basis, net loss in the quarter was $19.8 million or a loss of 20 cents per share compared to a net loss of $5.6 million or a loss of 5 cents per share in the prior-year quarter. However, adjusted net income (excluding $25.5 million special charges and $0.6 million loss from discontinued operations, net of taxes) in the reported quarter was $6.3 million or an income of 6 cents per share, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of an income of 4 cents per share.

Pro forma gross margin for the quarter was 34.6% compared to 33% in the year-ago quarter. This reflects the aggressive cost cutting measures taken by management during the past one year. Pro forma quarterly operating expenses were $113 million compared to $106.2 million in the prior-year quarter.

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About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
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Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

Chicago, IL – November 23, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Dell Inc. (DELL), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation (BNI), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Friday’s Analyst Blog:

Dell Falls Short of Expectations

Dell Inc. (DELL) reported third quarter 2010 EPS of 23 cents, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 27 cents.

Revenue for the quarter was $10.75 billion, down 17.0% from $12.97 billion reported in the year-ago quarter and up 1.0% from $10.62 billion reported in the previous quarter. The company’s third quarter reported revenue was adversely affected by the timing of the Windows 7 launch and due to backlog buildup in the company’s SMB and consumer businesses.

Large Enterprise posted revenue of $3.4 billion, an increase of 4.0% sequentially and decline of 23.0% year-over-year. In the last quarter, the company expended its networking partnership with Brocade and Juniper, and introduced products like PowerEdge 11g servers and expanded PowerVault storage systems.

Public revenue for the quarter was $3.7 billion, down 3.0% on sequentially and 7.0% from the year-ago quarter. Shipments were down 12.0% on a sequential basis, due to seasonality in the U.S. public sector business.

Small and Medium Business revenue for the quarter was $3.0 billion, up 5.0% sequentially and down 19.0% from the year-ago quarter. Shipments increased 9% sequentially. The segment benefited from steadily improving demand in both the Americas and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as better performance in EMEA during the second half.

Revenues for Consumer Business were down 10.0% year-over-year, but flat sequentially to $2.8 billion with shipments growing 4% sequentially.

Dell’s total sales in China, India, Brazil and Russia increased 18.0% sequentially and 5.0% over last year. China, the second-largest revenue generating country for Dell, reported revenue increase of 20.0% sequentially and 8.0% from the year-ago quarter.

Buffett Borrows for Rail Acquisition

Warren Buffett, the CEO and Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) announced on Thursday to borrow $8 billion of loan for the acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation (BNI). Berkshire Hathaway, which already owns a 22% stake in Burlington Northern, announced earlier this month it would acquire the rest for a total value of $34 billion. Buffet agreed to pay $100 a share in cash and stock to buy the rest of the company.

The $8 billion loan that will be provided by JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) is intended to be paid back in three years’ time.

For Berkshire, the acquisition of Burlington Northern, or BNSF, the second largest railroad, will be its biggest to date. With it, Berkshire is adding a railroad transportation business with its already diverse range of businesses including retail, manufacturing and insurance, as well as several regional electric and gas utilities.

The acquisition is expected to close in early 2010 and is subject to Burlington Northern’s shareholder approval. Post acquisition, Burlington Northern will operate from its headquarters as a wholly owned subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway.

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About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

Although many commentators write as if there were a national housing market, there have been huge differences in the experience across communities. Dastrup and Carson examine the OFHEO matched-sale data for house prices as calculated separately for 358 U.S. standard metropolitan statistical areas. As seen in the map below, the magnitude of the price decline has differed greatly across U.S. communities, with the biggest drops in the southwest, Florida, and Michigan.

Magnitude of house price declines for 358 SMSAs. Source: Carson and Dastrup (2009).

Dastrup and Carson look at how the magnitudes of the price declines correlate with a number of other community characteristics such as overbuilding (as measured by growth in building permits relative to the local labor force), extent of subprime lending, owner-occupied units, and fundamentals such as median income. Dastrup and Carson find that all of these measures were statistically significantly related to the magnitude of the housing price decline. But by far the most important variable was the magnitude of the previous price run-up, which all by itself can account for more than half of the observed variance in the size of the price decline across different communities.

Magnitude of house price increase prior to peak (horizontal axis) versus magnitude of house price decline (vertical axis). Source: Carson and Dastrup (2009).

I see this as consistent with earlier research by Marco Del Negro and Christopher Otrok which documented a common national factor driving much of the U.S. housing price boom, which in the Del Negro-Ostrok specification was allowed to affect different communities with different coefficients. My understanding of what happened is that low interest rates and in particular a deterioration of underwriting standards fueled an increase in housing demand everywhere in the earlier part of this decade. The magnitude of the price increase that this produced differed across communities as a function of local conditions. When these aggregate factors reversed, so did the prices.

The more prices were artificially bid up, the more spectacularly they declined.

Postscript to potential employers: Sam's a great teacher, and looking for a job.

The spike in bond prices came even as the Treasury announced plans to auction a record $118 billion in new notes next week – an auction schedule of $44 billion 2-year notes on Monday, $42 billion 5-year notes Tuesday, and $32 billion 7-year notes on Wednesday.

The Dow, which had plunged as much as 170 points during the session, ended down 93.87 points, or 0.9%, to 10,332.44.  The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 14.90 points, or 1.3%, to 1,094.90, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index dropped 36.32 points, or 1.7%, to 2,156.82.  Wall Street’s fear gauge, the CBOE Vix, jumped more than 4%.  Crude prices dropped $1.93 to $77.46. Gold prices rose to their fifth straight record close, up 70 cents to $1141.90.

As glimmers of a full-blown economic recovery fade, investors have increasingly become intolerant, locking in profits at every opportunity.  Also, a lack of conviction on part of the market to push beyond the current rally has been a dampener and concerns of an asset bubble build-up due to accommodative monetary policies have diminished risk appetites, sending daily average volume to levels of only about 1 billion.   

Nevertheless, to show not all is bad, the OECD raised its growth estimates for its 30-country members to 1.9% in 2010 from June's estimate of a 0.7% growth, and to a 2.5% GDP expansion in 2011.

Tech shares, already up 54.3% year-to-date, fell 1.7% Thursday, after Merrill's analyst slashed 2010 global growth targets, and downgraded ten companies in the semiconductor sector.  Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) shares fell 4.1%, and Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) retreated 3.4% after the downgrade.  Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) shares plunged 6.1% in premarket trading, after the company reported earnings that missed analysts’ projections.

Among the S&P 500 industry groups, energy producers, off 2.1%, were the biggest decliners.  ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) fell 1.9% and Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) dropped 2% as crude prices fell for the first time in four days. Schlumberger Ltd. (NYSE:SLB) shares fell 3.3%.

Chicago, IL – November 20, 2009 – Zacks Equity Research highlights Principal Financial (PFG) as the Bull of the Day and Sohu.com (SOHU) the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Bank of America (BAC), Wal-Mart (WMT) and Sears Holding Corp.(SHLD).

Full analysis of all these stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5506

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

We are upgrading our recommendation on the shares of Principal Financial (PFG) to Outperform. The company's third quarter operating earnings were much ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven primarily by the sequential improvement in domestic as well as global equity markets.

We believe that Principal's strong franchise within the pension sector, which is aided by its diversification both in terms of products and geography, positions it well to benefit from the gradual recovery of the credit market. However, rising unemployment is reducing the number of participants in existing employee benefit plans.

Though we are concerned about higher delinquencies in its commercial mortgage portfolio, we expect the company to benefit from its decent capital level and cost containment measures.

Bear of the Day:

While Sohu.com’s (SOHU) third-quarter earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and were in line with the company s own guidance, the outlook for the fourth quarter was far below expectation. The company's operating expenses have been steadily going up, which we fear could limit the growth in earnings.

Moreover, recent delays in game launches, weak ad spending, which is hurting the brand advertising revenue and intense competition pose a threat. Strength in its online games and portal business are expected to be the strongest drivers for growth beyond 2010.

Currently, we see limited upside for Sohu's revenue and earnings growth in the near term. We downgrade the stock to Underperform from our previous Neutral rating and set a six-month price target of $45.00.

Latest Posts on the Zacks Analyst Blog:

Initial Jobless Claims Flat(-ish)

With the pace of hiring as slow as it is, this hole in the safety net will have to be repaired as soon as possible. With no income, and more than six job seekers for every available job, those people are going to be in a world of hurt. Most Americans have very little in the way of savings to fall back on, especially outside of IRA’s and 401k plans. Tapping those would expose people to a 10% penalty and it would be considered taxable income for them. Yet many of them will probably be forced to do so, even if unemployment insurance is extended to them.

It is not just for humanitarian reasons that benefits should be extended. Without an income, people will have to do their banking at the local food bank, not at Bank of America (BAC), and even the local food bank needs a bailout these days. People will be hard-pressed to shop at even the Salvation Army, let alone Wal-Mart (WMT).

Extending benefits is one of the most effective forms of economic stimulus there is. It is far more effective than extending lavish tax credits to move-up homebuyers with incomes up to five times the national median. Unfortunately, the unemployed to not have as effective a lobby as the used home dealers (aka Realtors).

Sears Reports 3Q Loss 

Sears Holding Corp.(SHLD), the fourth largest broadline retailer in the U.S., reported a third-quarter loss of $127 million or $1.09 per share compared to a loss of $146 million or $1.16 per share in the year-earlier quarter. Although Sears managed to reduce its quarterly loss year over year, this was the second consecutive quarterly loss for the company.

The quarterly figures included non-recurring items such as severance charges related to store closings, impairment charges, and pension plan expenses. Excluding the one-time charges, net loss was $94 million or 81 cents per share during the third quarter versus a net loss of $114 million or 90 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Sears reported total revenues of $10.2 billion during the quarter compared to $10.7 billion in the year-earlier quarter. The decrease in year-over-year sales was primarily due to a decline in comparable store sales partially offset by the effect of foreign currency translation. Domestic comparable store sales decreased 2.3% during the quarter, with the Sears Domestic division accounting for a 4.6% decrease partially offset by a 0.5% increase in the Kmart division.

Get the full analysis of all these stocks by going to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5507.

About the Bull and Bear of the Day

Every day, the analysts at Zacks Equity Research select two stocks that are likely to outperform (Bull) or underperform (Bear) the markets over the next 3-6 months.

About the Analyst Blog

Updated throughout every trading day, the Analyst Blog provides analysis from Zacks Equity Research about the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets.

About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous analyst coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=5508.

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5509.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/zacksresearch

Join us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/Zacks-Investment-Research/57553657748?ref=ts

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
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Chicago, IL – November 20, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Bank of America (BAC), MGIC (MTG), Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and The Gymboree Corp. (GYMB).

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Here are highlights from Thursday’s Analyst Blog:

Mortgage Delinquencies: Record High

The delinquency rate is going up much faster than foreclosures are being started. With unemployment high and rising, it is hard to see a lot of those delinquencies getting cured. Either the lenders will have to let people live indefinitely in their houses without paying (unlikely that the banks would be so generous) or we will see another huge wave of foreclosures coming.

The absolute number of houses that are either in foreclosure or 90 days or more past due now exceeds the number of existing homes available for sale. That is a huge overhang of shadow inventory (although some of it is out of the shadows and currently listed for sale) that should continue to put pressure on housing prices, even with all the extraordinary government support trying to prop up housing prices.

While unemployment is one serious driver of mortgage foreclosures because it affects the ability to pay, falling home prices are another driver. An underwater home is a home that is at high risk of going into foreclosure. It is simply economically irrational to continue to make payments on a $500,000 mortgage that is secured by a property that is only worth $400,000. This, then, continues the vicious cycle, where falling prices lead to foreclosures, which leads to more distressed supply, which leads to further pressure on home prices that in turn leads to yet more foreclosures.

The entire mortgage complex is not yet out of the woods. That complex includes the big banks like Bank of America (BAC), the mortgage insurers like MGIC (MTG) as well as Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). My inclination is to avoid all of them.

Gymboree Beats, but Outlook Down

The Gymboree Corp. (GYMB) reported its fiscal third quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday. The company posted earnings of $34.8 million, a growth of 12.6% from $30.9 million recorded in the year-ago period. Earnings per share came in at $1.15, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.13.

Gymboree is a specialty retailer offering apparel and accessories for children under the Gymboree, Gymboree Outlet, Janie and Jack and Crazy 8 Brands, as well as play programs under the Gymboree Play & Music brand. At the end of October 2009, the company operated a total of 951 stores across the U.S., Canada and in Puerto Rico.

The company reported a nearly 2% increase in total sales to $269.1 million during the quarter, compared to $264.1 million in the year-ago quarter. The expansion was primarily driven by the addition of 78 new stores in the last one year period, partially offset by a 4% decline in same-store sales. During the quarter, the company opened a total of 25 new stores including six Gymboree stores, four Gymboree Outlets and 15 Crazy 8 stores.

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About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

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Chicago, IL – November 20, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Toyota Motors (TM), Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A).

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Here are highlights from Thursday’s Analyst Blog:

Toyota’s 1st Sales Gain in 15 Months

Toyota Motors (TM) has posted its first year-over-year monthly sales gain across the globe in 15 months during October. The company’s sales rose 4% to more than 630,000 vehicles. In the U.S., the company’s sales fell 3.5%.

However, in the domestic market Toyota’s sales grew 15% helped by tax breaks for purchases of environment-friendly cars. In China, the company saw a staggering rise of 40% in sales. Toyota returned to profitability in the second quarter of fiscal 2010 ended Sep 30, 2009, after reporting losses since the third quarter of fiscal 2009.

The company posted a profit of ¥21.8 billion ($232 million) or ¥6.96 per share (7 cents) per share. This profit was attributed to government incentive programs across the world – such as the U.S. “Cash for Clunkers"– that helped the company recoup its market share. Consolidated revenue in the quarter dipped 24% to ¥4.54 trillion ($48 billion).

Automotive revenue fell 24% to ¥4.11 trillion ($44 billion) while Financial Services revenue shrank 17% to ¥307 billion ($4 billion). This was on the back of a decline in vehicle sales in each region as well as a negative impact from the appreciation of yen. Sales volume declined 16% to 1.64 million units due to a decrease in volume in all the regions except North America.

Petrobras Profit Exceeds Ests

Brazilian energy giant Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), or Petrobras S.A. announced encouraging third quarter results, helped by strong performance from the Supply segment. Earnings per ADR came in at R$1.66 (96 cents), comfortably beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 80 cents. However, on a year-over-year basis, Petrobras’ earnings per ADR was down approximately 28.7%, hurt by lower prices of oil and natural gas. Still, they were better than the high double-digit earnings decline suffered by other majors such as ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX), and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A).

Total oil and gas production during the third quarter of 2009 reached 2,534 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, from 2,524 million in the previous quarter and 2,437 million in the same period of 2008. Compared to the third quarter of 2008, Brazilian oil and natural gas liquids production increased 4.8%, while international production was up 24.6%. However, Brazilian natural gas volumes were down 3.3% from the year-ago period, while international output during the quarter was down 6.0% year over year.

During the third quarter of 2009, the average sales price of oil in Brazil decreased 36.4% from the year-earlier period to $64 per barrel. Average sales price of international oil was down 16.9% year-over-year, reaching $57.16 per barrel. Regarding natural gas, average international sales price decreased 21.5% from the third quarter of 2008, while domestic price was down 61.5%.

Refining costs per barrel in Brazil was down 2.6% to $3.37 and internationally, it fell 45.2% to $3.51. Lifting cost per barrel moved down 24.5% in Brazil to $22.86, while overseas costs rose 9.4% to $5.6. Petrobras exported an average of 724,000 barrels of oil per day, 10.2% higher compared to the same period last year.

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About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/zacksresearch

Join us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/Zacks-Investment-Research/57553657748?ref=ts

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

Company Description

Nordstrom, Inc operates as a specialty fashion retailer for men, woman and children in the United States. The company was founded in 1901 and has a market cap of $7.38 billion.

The retail sector has been weak for the last year as consumers continue to struggle with overbearing debt and high unemployment. But in spite of the challenges shares of Nordstrom have posted big gains as the company adjusts to the challenging environment. This dynamic showed up on Nov 13 when Nordstrom posted better than expected third-quarter results.

Third-Quarter Results

Same-store sales were down 1.2% from last year, but net sales were up 3.5% to $1.87 billion. Earnings came in one penny ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate at 38 cents per share. The company has beat in each of the last four quarters by an average of 3 cents, or 8%.

Nordstrom noted that its Nordstrom Rack store, a value oriented extension of the its main store, saw increased demand, with same-store sales up 3% from last year. The company also noted that its 90 basis point expansion in gross margin was largely offset by a jump in performance related compensation.

Estimates Rising

The good quarter pushed estimates higher. The current-year estimate is up 6 cents in the last week to $1.82, while the next-year estimate is up 9 cents to $2.17, a 19% growth projection.

Valuation

Based upon the current-year estimate, this stock trades with a P/E multiple of 18X, a slight premium to the overall market.

The Chart

Shares of JWN are up big over the last 4 months after bottoming out just above $18 in early July. Shares have been hovering near the 52-week high for the last few weeks ahead of prime-time holiday spending season.

Zacks Investment Research

Various observers have continued to ascribe a central role to real RMB appreciation to effect global rebalancing. I think it's useful to remember that, given a Chinese trade balance in excess of 260 billion USD, appreciation can only have a certain impact. From Cheung, Chinn and Fujii (forthcoming):

...using a single equation error correction model, allowing for coefficient shifts with Chinese accession to WTO, leads to a statistically insignificant estimate of the price elasticity. In the 2000-06 period, the implied price elasticity is zero. Using this point estimate, then a 10% appreciation would actually lead to a shrinkage of the trade balance from 400.9 billion to 355.2 billion. This estimate of 45.7 billion (2000$) is somewhat less than the $88.6 billion current dollars reported in Marquez and Schindler (forthcoming) [working paper version].

The export equations take the form:

Δ exp _t = θ ₀ + ρ exp _t-1 + θ ₁ y^* _t-1 + θ ₂ r _t-1 + θ ₃ k _t-1 + σ ₁ Δ exp _t-1 + 2 lags of first differenced right hand side variables + quarterly dummies + WTO dummy + v _t

Where exp is log exports, y^* is log RoW GDP, r is the real exchange rate, and k is the Chinese capital stock. The import equations take the form:

Δ imp _t = β ₀ + φ imp _t-1 + β ₁ y _t-1 + β ₂ r _t-1 + γ₁ Δ imp _t-1 + 1 lag of first differenced right hand side variables + quarterly dummies + WTO dummy + u _t

Where imp is log imports, y is log GDP.

Separate regressions are run for ordinary and processing trade, over the 1993Q4-07Q1 period. The adjusted R²'s range from 0.77 to 0.92.

If we take the Goldstein-Lardy misalignment estimates of 20% to heart, then a 20% appreciation would lead to an approximately 91.4 billion (2000$) reduction in the Chinese trade balance. As best as I can tell, the export prices from China, and to China (as proxied by unit value indices for Hong Kong) have probably stayed constant relative to 2000; hence the nominal impact is around 90 billion USD (with considerable uncertainty surrounding this point estimate).

This leaves a large Chinese trade surplus in place, around 170 billion even before the rebound in the Chinese surplus anticipated as the world aggregate demand recovers. Now, to the extent that Chinese reserve accumulation is due to a current account surplus and capital inflows, one could hope that a revaluation would have an additional knock-on effect by deterring capital inflows (the argument would be revaluation would eliminate expectations of appreciation that would provide capital gains on holding RMB). That is, recall the balance of payments identity:

CA + KA + ORT ≡ 0

Where CA is the current account, KA is private capital account, and ORT is official reserves transactions.

Figure 2, drawn from Prasad and Sorkin (2009) shows that net inflows were not a major factor, at least in 2008.

This suggests to me that rebalancing requires as much or more Chinese fiscal stimulus and a concerted effort to encourage private consumption via enhancing the social safety net, in addition to RMB revaluation. (This can be seen in a Mundell Fleming framework, as applied to China [3]). And it also requires determined action from the US side as well (see here). If only we'd conducted a sane fiscal policy in 2001-08 [4], our range of action would now be wider in this respect.

United States Commodity Funds' new ETF, the U.S. 12-Month Natural Gas Fund (NYSEArca: UNL), began trading yesterday, offering investors another easy access point to the natural gas market. But let's hope it sees smoother sailing than its controversial cousin, the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (NYSEArca: UNG).

Not only have regulators vociferously blamed UNG for distorting the commodity markets earlier this year, the fund has also performed dismally to date, dropping a whopping 61.24 percent since the beginning of the year. And it's not because investors have lost their taste for the fund: Last month, UNG still saw brisk inflows of $308 million, even as its net assets dropped $263 million.

Record-low natural gas prices have played their part in slashing UNG's returns, of course, but the big anvil weighing the fund down is the market's nasty case of contango. For the better part of the year, the front-month NYMEX natural gas futures contract has stayed cheaper than those with later delivery dates. And since UNG buys only the front-month contract, selling it near its expiration date to purchase the next-nearest month's contract, the fund has been stuck in a wicked cycle of "sell low, buy high" for months now.

UNL, on the other hand, may be able to avoid some (but not all) of the same pricing sting. Instead of focusing solely on the front-month contract, UNL purchases an equally weighted basket of futures contracts with delivery dates in each of the next 12 months. Two weeks from rollover time, the fund sells the front-month contract and buys the one 12 months out, essentially pushing the basket forward in time.

Given that currently UNG must absorb losses across 100 percent of its contracts during rollover, while UNL only experiences losses in 1/12^th of its portfolio, this methodology should protect the latter somewhat from contango's vicious sting. But it can't make UNL entirely immune, considering the furthest-out contracts are still priced substantially above the front-month contract: Yesterday, the December 2009 contract closed at $4.254, while the December 2010 contract closed 45.7 percent higher, at $6.199.

Also consider that at 0.75 percent, UNL's expense ratio is a mite bigger than UNG's (0.60 percent), so when the contango lessens, any cost savings from choosing the former over the latter would naturally erode. And should the natural gas market flip to backwardation, UNL's staggered buying strategy would actually put it at a disadvantage to UNG.

But backwardation's not likely to happen in natural gas—at least, not anytime soon. To see inversion occur, we'd need to start seeing shortages in the physical commodity, yet natural gas stocks just hit an all-time high. In fact, the International Energy Agency recently predicted that even if demand rebounds, due to an extra-cold winter and economic recovery, we'll still see a natural gas surplus that will depress prices until 2015.

Will UNL ultimately outperform UNG until then? Obviously only time will tell, but we may be able to divine some clues from USCF's other 12-Month Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USL) and its UNG-analogous partner, the U.S. Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO). Despite oil's price recovery, the commodity has also experienced heavy contango recently, and year-to-date, USL is up 38.84 percent, while USO is only up 22.87 percent.

Still, while I'm always happy to have more tools in the box, when it comes to natural gas, I'm not yet sure whether a flathead or a Phillips screwdriver would be better.