As the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) approaches capacity (721.5 million barrels filled out of a total possible 727 million, and will be filled by January 2010), the federal government will fade out of the oil-buying business. Some bearish traders believe that this factor can weigh in on prices, since most petroleum stocks in the United States are government-held rather than private. Bullish traders have also used the filling of the Chinese SPR as a reason that oil should go much higher.

The team at Casey’s Energy Opportunities believe that planned government buying or selling of crude oil for SPRs actually have very little impact in the overall market. However, an overall drawdown of worldwide inventory could put downward pressure on the price of oil. The various countries also have their particular reasons and influences in decisions to tap their reserves.

So which countries are executing preparedness plans to fill their strategic

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Richard Beales (The New York Times): Exuberance defies sober new reality, September 17, 2009. Is irrational exuberance back in the markets? Evidence abounds that it may be. With financial chaos abating, the return of risk appetite in stock and lending markets is logical - up to a point. But risk-taking that aspires to the boom-time norm, rather than a more sober new reality, could be premature and dangerous.

• James Grant (The Wall Street Journal): From bear to bull, September 19, 2009. Grant argues the latest gloomy forecasts ignore an important lesson of history: The deeper the slump, the zippier the recovery.

• John Hussman (Hussman Funds): Strenuously overbought, September 22, 2009. Our measures of market action

Now, the bodies of Zarema Sadulayeva and her husband, Alik Djabrailov, who worked with an organization that helped young people in Chechnya, have been discovered in the trunk of their car in Grozny, after the human rights group Memorial reported they had been kidnapped.

Why aren't Western governments doing more to hold Moscow accountable? Instead of letting the Kremlin off the hook, they could shame Russia into stopping the murders and jailing the killers. President Medvedev's outraged comments -- rare for a Kremlin leader -- may prove to be the crack in the omertà in the Putin-Kadyrov regime. He could be held to his promise of an uncompromising investigation into Ms. Estemirova's death.

In the past, the West has chosen to mute its criticism

In my previous post I commented on Ben Bernanke's recent communication of the Fed's exit strategy for getting its balance sheet and daily operations back to historical norms. I suggested that one necessary ingredient to convince the public that we will see a return to a stable monetary regime would be a credible explanation of how the United States government will be able to meet its enormous current and implicit future fiscal obligations. Today I'd like to discuss a second element that I feel is missing from the exit strategy articulated by Bernanke, and this is a compelling vision of what a healthy financial market not propped up by the Treasury and the Fed would look like.

Let me frame this issue using as an example one of the ongoing Fed-Treasury initiatives that troubles me the most, which is the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or

In addition to testifying before Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke today tried to explain the Fed's plans and options directly to the public through an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. Here I provide some background on what Bernanke's talking about in terms of an "exit strategy" for the Fed, and offer some thoughts on his remarks.

The basic power of the Fed derives from its ability to create money, which it can use to buy assets or extend loans. We can summarize the Fed's actions in terms of either the asset side of its balance sheet (the assets and loans it holds), or the liabilities side (the money or other obligations it has created). Let's start with the asset side. Up until January of 2008, by far the most important assets held by the Fed were short-term Treasury bills. As last year wore

As we all know, the depression is over. The stock market seems to think so… with the Dow up 32 more points on Friday… and apparently eager to go higher. Oil rose above $64. And gold is trading at $937 this morning.

Friday, two more banks – the Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) – announced impressive results. Between them, they made $5.4 billion in the last quarter.

These follow announcements earlier in the week from JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman (NYSE:GS). As reported in this space, Goldman set the pace by reporting that it has managed to earn more than $1 billion per month in the 2 nd quarter of this year. It said it did so by helping clients raise money… refinance… and restructure.

Goldman made so much money that it has set aside more than $11 billion so far this year in compensation for its

CIT Goes Over a Cliff

by The Investment U Research Team

Even as Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) reported the best quarterly profit in it’s 140-year history, and JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) announced that it’s profit climbed 36 percent to $2.7 billion, the news coming from another former financial stalwart is strikingly different.

CIT Group (NYSE: CIT) is rumored to be close to bankruptcy talks and its shares took a dive this morning as the United States government said it wouldn’t rescue it a second time.

That’s pretty clear language that “firms not vital to the inner workings of the financial system” would not be saved like many larger banks have been. It’s harsh and it’s ugly, and it’s called capitalism.

But it’s unclear what the total

Gold price action on Monday looked similar to Friday’s. The bottom for gold in the Far East came shortly after 3:00 p.m. in Hong Kong…rose until shortly after London opened, declined a couple of bucks…but once the London a.m. gold fix was in [10:30 a.m. in London...5:30 a.m. in New York], gold rose to its high of the day shortly after 11:00 a.m. This high [once again over $940] lasted until 9:00 a.m. in New York, shortly after the Comex opened…then it got taken down eight bucks to its low of the day at 10:00 a.m. in New York…which just happens to be the London p.m. fix…3:00 p.m. over there.

From that point it rose right into the Comex close…and was taken down and closed below $940 once again in the electronic market.

Silver’s chart pattern was virtually identical to gold’s.

Everything was swell in gold and silver when I went to bed early on Friday morning. I was hoping that when I got up four hours later, that both metals would be much higher in New York trading. They were…until 8:40 a.m…and that was that. From there, gold and silver basically closed on their lows of the day. And for whatever reason, gold was not allowed to close above $940 again. That’s the third day in a row. Silver however, closed above $14 by a magnificent seven cents!

From the start of the trading day on Friday morning in the Far East…and until noon in New York…the dollar lost about 70 basis points. And from the start of precious metals trading in the Far East, gold and silver basically rose as the dollar fell. That relationship ended almost as soon as the New York bullion banks showed up for work.

The lousy

Everything was swell in gold and silver when I went to bed early on Friday morning. I was hoping that when I got up four hours later, that both metals would be much higher in New York trading. They were…until 8:40 a.m…and that was that. From there, gold and silver basically closed on their lows of the day. And for whatever reason, gold was not allowed to close above $940 again. That’s the third day in a row. Silver however, closed above $14 by a magnificent seven cents!

From the start of the trading day on Friday morning in the Far East…and until noon in New York…the dollar lost about 70 basis points. And from the start of precious metals trading in the Far East, gold and silver basically rose as the dollar fell. That relationship ended almost as soon as the New York bullion banks showed up for work.

The lousy