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It’s the Economy, Stupid

Bill Bonner (January 8th, 2009) Writes:

he economic news continues to bring bad tidings…consumer bankruptcies were up 33% in 2008…The financial crash is causing an economic crash, which will cause a worse financial crash…and around and around we go…Who will spend their savings in ‘09?…the CBO puts the budget deficit at $1.2 trillion for this year - and that’s not counting stimulus programs…and more!

“Psst…we’re breaking out of this joint…Saturday night…pass it on….”

Yes, dear reader…we’re breaking out… We’re not going to let these prison bars stop us. A whole generation of American investors is being fattened for slaughter…we’re not going to be among them.

Let’s look at yesterday’s headlines just to see what is going on.

The Dow rose 62 points yesterday. Oil held steady at $48. Gold went up $8. Yields are rising…but you still get paid nothing when you lend money to the U.S. government.

The economic news tells us that things are getting worse. Alcoa said

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Dollar Financial Improving - Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (January 8th, 2009) Writes:
Dollar Financial Corp. (DLLR) of Berwyn, PA is an international financial services company serving under-banked consumers. DLLR provides a range of consumer financial products and services primarily consisting of check cashing, short-term consumer loans, Western Union money orders and money transfers, along with other conveniences such as utility bill payments, currency exchange, and tax preparation.DLLR's 1Q09 (ended September 30, 2008) diluted earnings of $0.55 per share were ahead of consensus estimates. The company continued to deliver outstanding revenue growth (17.0% during the reported quarter), despite a difficult economic environment. Net income increased 12.9%, based on strong growth especially in the U.S. markets, as a result of acquisitions.The company continues to exhibit strong growth both in U.S. and in U.K. and Canada, though the top line will be impacted by the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Ahead of the 2Q09 results, we are slightly ...

As The Labour Market Turns German Exports And New Orders Tumble

Edward Hugh (January 8th, 2009) Writes:
by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Unemployment in Germany rose last month for the first time since February 2006, thus bringing inauspiciously to an end an unprecedented 34 month labour-market recovery. Figures released by the Federal Labour Agency today show that the number of those seeking employment in Germany rose by a seasonally-adjusted 18,000 in December. The change is small, but the significance is great, since this is obviously but the first month of many when unemployment will rise in Germany, and this rising unemployment will now, in its turn, feed back into the industrial slowdown which is already underway. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged (following data revisions for previous months) at 7.6 percent.br /br /Not a surprise. But not good news.br /br /br /pa href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SWThjoirXkI/AAAAAAAAMC8/kM2G_NPNWxA/s1600-h/german+unemployment.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5288599864734342722" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 190px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SWThjoirXkI/AAAAAAAAMC8/kM2G_NPNWxA/s320/german+unemployment.png" border="0" //abr /br /In a separate ...

A Trading Pattern For Gold

Contrarian Profits (January 7th, 2009) Writes:

The currencies rally back! …  The risk takers are back! …  Mixed bag of economic reports…  A “cross thing” for sterling… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Well, front and center this morning is a rally in the currencies that began yesterday mid-morning, and has carried through the Asian and European markets. I’d tell you why the euro is 2.5 figures above yesterday morning’s level, but you’d laugh at me… No wait! That’s what you’re supposed to

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Anti-Depression Remedies, Part II

Contrarian Profits (January 7th, 2009) Writes:

You probably know John Maynard Keynes as an economist, but may not know that he was also a great investor, maybe the most the successful of the Great Depression era. And for that reason, given all that our own markets are going through, it may be a good time to look at his investment career.

Keynes managed Cambridge’s King’s College Chest Fund. The Fund averaged 12% per year from 1927-1946, which was remarkable given that the period seemed to be all about gray skies and storm clouds - it included the Great Depression and World War II. The U.K. stock market fell 15% during this stretch. And to top it off, the Chest Fund’s returns included only capital appreciation, as the college spent the income earned in the portfolio, which was considerable. I think it must be one of the most remarkable track records in the annals of finance.

Keynes also made

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Dollar Whacks The Euro

Doug Casey (January 6th, 2009) Writes:

In the currency market, the dollar rallied strongly against the euro in its opening shot across the bow for 2009. Late Monday, the euro was trading at $1.3588 vs. $1.3869 on Friday.

“[The] dollar was boosted in part by ongoing talk of a big fiscal package from the incoming Obama administration, and we think gains will be sustained in 2009,” wrote currency strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman.

That government handout is looking as if it might be huge. According to MarketWatch.com, “Obama plans to spend about $775 billion over two years, putting people to work on infrastructure projects and giving aid to states. In all, the tax cuts or breaks would account for about 40% of the value of the stimulus.”

Though the buck put a smackdown on the euro, it lost ground, nearly 1%, vs. the British pound.

“Although the [Bank of England] is expected to cut rates this week,

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Global Investing Roundups Tuesday, January 6th, 2009

Contrarian Profits (January 6th, 2009) Writes:

Borders Ousts CEO; Front Page Ads in New York Times; Steve Jobs Speaks, Apple Soars; U.K. Short Selling Ban Ending; Whitman’s Future; Oil Rises on MidEast Violence; Russia Cuts Gas Supplies to Europe

Borders Group, Inc. (BGP) ousted its Chief Executive George Jones and replaced him with outsider Ron Marshall, a Wildridge Capital Management executive whose primary experience is turning around ailing companies, Reuters reported. George had been Borders’ CEO for the past three years. The New York Times Co. (NYT) opened its front page to advertisers, a controversial move within journalism circles but also one that follows ...

Orchid Cellmark to Bloom - Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (January 6th, 2009) Writes:
Orchid Cellmark Inc. (ORCH) is a leading provider of DNA testing services for forensic, human identity and agricultural applications in the U.S. and the U.K. The company is also the world's largest provider of "scrapie susceptibility genotyping."The company expanded its reach in the U.S. with the acquisition of ReliaGene in October 2007. The company is now leveraging its expertise in DNA testing to enter into new markets like pork traceability, immigration testing and security applications. Orchid Cellmark has won a major part of the mega-tender in the U.K., which will result in annual revenues of $10 million for the next 3 years. As such, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised target price of $2.50.Maharathi Basu contributed to this report.Read the full analyst report on ORCH "ORCH" Free Stock Analysis: Buy? ...

We’re Bullish on the US Dollar Today … and Tomorrow!

Jack Crooks (January 5th, 2009) Writes:
PKey Newsbr•nbsp;U.K. Rescue Fails to Spur Loans (WSJ)br•nbsp;Japan's Central Bank Weighs Measures to Curb Stronger Yen (WSJ)/P PKey Reports Due (WSJ):br7:00 a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Jan 3: Previous: -0.5%. br10:00 a.m. Nov Construction Spending: Expected: -1.2%. Previous: -1.2%. /P PbrQuotable br“How charming is divine philosophy!brNot harsh and crabbèd, as dull fools suppose,brBut musical as is Apollo’s lute,brAnd a perpetual feast of nectared sweets,brWhere no crude surfeit reigns.”/P P nbsp; John Milton/P PFX Trading – We’re Bullish on the US Dollar Today ...nbsp; and Tomorrow!/P PDo you remember what economists used to tell us about the global economy? If not, let me remind you.nbsp; /P PI remember the mantra-like chant from very clearly: There are major imbalances across the global economy.nbsp; Some countries save too much, others borrow and spend too much.nbsp; /P POf course the US seemed be the one to blame no matter the shape or weaknesses elsewhere.nbsp; The gut wrenching credit crunch of ...

One of the Best Markets of 2008 & Weekly Highlight: Costa Rica

Jonathan O'Shaughnessy (December 30th, 2008) Writes:

As the last country highlighted by Emerginvest in 2008, Costa Rica holds a place as one of the best markets to have invested in – both in terms of relative performance for the last year, as well as strong growth in the last month.

Nestled between Nicaragua and Panama, south of Mexico, Costa Rica lays claim to only 4.3 million people, and a national GDP of approximately $21 billion. The economy is mainly driven by three industries: a widespread agricultural sector which accounts for 8.7% of the GDP, a strong industrial sector (producing items such as electronic components, food processing, textiles, etc), which accounts for 28.9% of GDP, and an extremely deep tourism and services sector which accounts for 62.4% of GDP. Their stock exchange, the Bolsa Nacional de Valores, has been in operation for the last 29 years.

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