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Stalking the Mighty Consumer

QualityStocks (October 2nd, 2009) Writes:
What group can claim credit for being the driving force behind the world’s largest economy? Hint: You are probably a member of this group.

The answer is U.S. consumers, whose spending is responsible for more than 70% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). As we’ve seen in recent years, when consumer conditions are bad, the effects can be widespread. If consumer spending falters, it affects business income and tax revenues. If revenues fall far enough, the effects can include increased unemployment, which in turn exaggerates the problem because the unemployed have reduced incomes and tend to make fewer purchases.

Economists, traders, investors, and policymakers all take great interest in the financial health of consumers and what they may do next. Here are some popular indicators of consumer behavior.

The Monthly Retail Trade Survey is conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, which mails questionnaires to about 12,500 businesses. The Census Bureau uses the data

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What if Everyone in the World Wanted a One-Ounce Gold Coin?

Contrarian Profits (September 28th, 2009) Writes:

If we’re right about where the price of gold is headed, the general public will someday clamor to buy all things gold. While gold stocks will be where the real leverage is, the rush will start with gold itself. As a gold editor, I have a very natural question: is there enough to go around?

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are 6.783 billion earthlings. Meanwhile, CPM Group, a highly respected industry organization, estimates there are 4.8 billion ounces of above-ground gold in the world. And this includes jewelry, electronics, and dental. So, even if everyone around the world volunteered to have their chain, cross, or tooth melted into a coin, we’re already short. Those towards the end of the line are out of luck.

However, it’s worse than that. Of all the physical metal ever mined…

2.1 billion ounces, or 43%, is found in jewelry, decorative, and religious items. Private stock – ...

U.S. Trade Spat with China Escalates, But is Unlikely to Cause a Significant Rift

Jason Simpkins (September 22nd, 2009) Writes:

China is Investing Billions in Renewable Energy One firm has already built China’s largest wind turbine manufacturing factory. And it’s working with the Chinese Science Academy to develop new wind, solar, and geothermal technologies… for which it will own 70% of the rights. But this company’s business reaches far beyond the Chinese border, with operations in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe. It’s first quarter net income increased by 294% over a year ago. Click here for the full report.

Shortly after U.S. President Barack Obama announced hefty import duties on Chinese-made tires, China’s Ministry of Commerce over the weekend said it would explore possible sanctions against U.S. automobile and chicken imports.

The dispute has caused some concern over an escalation in protectionist measures between the two nations, but few analysts believe the dispute will spiral out of control and threaten a global recovery.

President Obama on …

U.S. Trade Spat with China Escalates, But is Unlikely to Cause a Significant Rift

Jason Simpkins (September 15th, 2009) Writes:

China is Investing Billions in Renewable Energy One firm has already built China’s largest wind turbine manufacturing factory. And it’s working with the Chinese Science Academy to develop new wind, solar, and geothermal technologies… for which it will own 70% of the rights. But this company’s business reaches far beyond the Chinese border, with operations in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe. It’s first quarter net income increased by 294% over a year ago. Click here for the full report.

Shortly after U.S. President Barack Obama announced hefty import duties on Chinese-made tires, China’s Ministry of Commerce over the weekend said it would explore possible sanctions against U.S. automobile and chicken imports.

The dispute has caused some concern over an escalation in protectionist measures between the two nations, but few analysts believe the dispute will spiral out of control and threaten a global recovery.

President Obama on Friday …

Harris Posts Excellent Results – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries (August 13th, 2009) Writes:

Harris Corp. (HRS) reported blockbuster fourth quarter results yesterday. Total revenues of $1.29 billion were up 4% year over year and well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.21 billion. Quarterly net loss from continuing operations was $83.5 million or a loss of 64 cents per share, compared to a net income of $134.5 million or an income of 99 cents per share in the previous quarter. However, adjusted EPS (excluding non-cash special charges), in the same quarter was 91 cents, significantly exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 83 cents.   During the fourth quarter, cost of sales was $888.5 million, compared to $831.1 million in the prior-year quarter. Engineering, selling, & administrative expenses were $212.6 million, compared to $206.4 million in the year-ago quarter. For fiscal 2009, Harris generated $666.8 million of cash from operations, compared to $555.5 million in the prior fiscal year. Free cash flow (cash

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Aspire Misery Index for the Week Ended July 10, 2009

Small Cap Pulse (July 11th, 2009) Writes:
July 10, 2009 ndash; Another mixed week of economic data, which left Wall Street in doubt about whether the economy is going to rebound any time soon. Fridayrsquo;s downtick in consumer sentiment was a stark reminder that Main Street is not doing well and isnrsquo;t particularly optimistic. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Consumer Sentiment ndash; The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) index decreased to 64.6, the lowest level since March, from 70.8 in June. The forecast was for a reading of 70. With respect to Americanrsquo;s perceptions about their financial situation, and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, the reading fell to 70.4 from 73.2. The index of consumer expectations for six months from now fell to 60.9, the biggest drop since October, from 69.2. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; US Import and Export Price Indexes - The U.S. Import Price Index rose 3.2 percent in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of ...

Getting Defense-ive

William A. Trent (June 30th, 2008) Writes:

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased slightly to $213.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced last week. This was the first increase in three months, and it followed a 1.0% April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.9%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.6%.

Behind that bland summary, though, is usually a wealth of information that I believe could be useful for picking the best industries in which to invest. This month, the signal was clear. Get defensive. Among a sea of industries seeing declining sales and orders, one stood out for its strength: defense aircraft and parts.

Disclosure: At time of publication, William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned in this article.

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