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Corporate Stars of the “New Russia”

Robert Amsterdam (June 25th, 2009) Writes:
In its current issue, Global Finance Magazine lists what it calls the "Stars of the New Russia" across a variety of business sectors. A lot of the preamble will probably not come as a shocker to those watching Russia on a continuous basis, but there are a couple of quotes that leapt out at me:Kingsmill Bond, London-based senior Russia analyst at Troika Dialog:"Russian corporates are used to handling volatility and difficult times. They can adapt quite quickly. Other countries are not used to such dramatic changes in the economic landscape. Russian firms are used to being thrown around and rebounding very quickly. They have had periods of high growth and high inflation in the past, and they have recovered. Russia is better positioned to bounce back when markets return. Russia will bounce back harder and quicker [than in 1998]."Alexandra Evtifyeva, Senior Economist of ...

Light at the End of the Tunnel

Robert Amsterdam (May 22nd, 2009) Writes:
light-tunnel.jpgSometimes you can tell the health of the Russian economy not by the RTS swings or major acquisition moves, but rather something as simple as movements in the executive hiring sector.  The Russia branch of Goldman Sachs has lost two key guys in one month ... but it's not because the banking sector is contracting.  As reported on Deal Journal, Goldman lost Michael Capone, former executive director of equity sales, to VTB Bank, and today lost William Donovan, who handled oil & gas M&As, to Deutsche Bank.  What's going on in Russia with this hiring glut in the banking sector?  Just some early rustling, or something more?  With oil holding firm at somewhere above $60 a barrel, at least some people seem to think Russia sees ...

Putin: Kudrin is “Stressed Now”

Robert Amsterdam (May 19th, 2009) Writes:
rosstat051909.gifGreg White at the Wall Street Journal has a gloomy outlook on the Russian economy today, and it looks like once again that Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin (who has been subpoenaed to appear at the Khodorkovsky trial) has found himself at war with other elements of the government who are less conscious of the state budget.  Yesterday we saw some reports explaining why government spending has not be working to bail out the Russian economy, and today it looks like Kudrin is under additional pressure despite the news of rising oil prices (the argument is that the deficit has to be curbed to avoid sudden inflationary pressure).  Perhaps once the state's money taps open up, a lot of people get used to receiving these funds, and resist any ...

Red Star Founder Quits Russia After 14 Year

Jason Corcoran (February 10th, 2009) Writes:
One of the best-known Russian strategists is quitting the country after the backer of his Moscow-based hedge fund, Red Star Asset Management, pulled its mandate amid plummeting markets. James Fenkner, founder and managing director of Red Star, is moving to Santa Barbara, California after working in Russia for 14 years. Fenkner took the decision after Erste Bank, an Austrian retail bank with a network across central and eastern Europe, withdrew its support for Red Star. Erste did not respond to calls seeking comment. Fenkner said his relocation was mainly for family reasons. He said: "We believe that great fortunes will again be made in Russian shares, but one doesn't need necessarily to live 24/7 in Moscow to participate...Like most investors, I want to fly in for a few weeks a year with a better global perspective." Fenkner set up Red Star in ...

Russia Heading Towards The Abyss?

Manuel Alvarez-Rivera (February 9th, 2009) Writes:
blockquote“A significant amount, if not all, of the speculative attacks on the ruble are funded by the central bank itself,” said Vladimir Osakovsky, Moscow-based economist for UniCredit/blockquotepThe underlying dynamics of the current ruble devaluation are provoking more than a little consternation in Russia at the moment. In the forefront of the debate are data from Bank Rossii (the central bank) which show they lent 7.7 trillion rubles ($214 billion) in overnight and seven-day loans (secured with bonds or other collateral) in just 16 trading days last month - this was about double the 4.8 trillion rubles provided via so-called repurchase auctions in December. Over the same period the ruble lost 18 percent against the dollar. The question is, is there a connection here?/ppRussia's banking authorities now certainly seem to think there is and Kommersant reported (Friday) that policy makers planned to reduce bank loans in an attempt to limit ...
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Russia’s Economic And Financial Meltdown Continues Apace

Edward Hugh (December 16th, 2008) Writes:
By Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Russia's foreign-exchange reserves have been now been declining very rapidly since mid August, and as the money goes so does the faith that the large stock of reserves the country built up during the boom times would be sufficient to see them through any downturn in energy prices. As the money leaves, so it seems does the decade of economic growth and stability which they symbolised. Indeed so rapid has been the decline that Russia's international reserves, which are the third-biggest after those of China and Japan, have now fallen $161 billion, or 27% percent, since 8 August last, and decreased by $17.9 billion to $437 billion in the week to 5 December. Investors have now pulled $211 billion out of the country since August, according to estimates by BNP Paribas.br /br /br /pa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUbQptNe4tI/AAAAAAAALyE/K0xlBOy3AlA/s1600-h/russia+GDP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5280137028067844818" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: ...
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Deutsche Bank cuts 30% of Russia global markets staff

Jason Corcoran (December 14th, 2008) Writes:
Dow Jones Newswires and Financial News br /br /Jason Corcoran in Moscowbr /08 December 2008 br /br /br /Deutsche Bank is cutting 30% of staff from its global markets division in Moscow where it has been the biggest and most successful bulge bracket bank during Russia's capital markets boom.br /br /Up to 30% of its Moscow-based global markets staff are expected to lose their jobs, double the proportion of employees being cut across Deutsche Bank's global markets business as part of a worldwide redundancy programme.br /br /Bankers working in sales, trading and research in Moscow were made redundant last week with more layoffs expected this week, according to two sources inside the bank.br /br /One said: "We have been told 30% has been earmarked across the board." The second said: "Ten of the research guys have gone."br /br /A Deutsche Bank spokesman in Moscow said the job losses represented 2% ...

Russia braced for a bleak winter

Jason Corcoran (November 17th, 2008) Writes:
Financial NewsJason Corcoran in Moscow and Harry Wilson17 Nov 2008 Moscow-based investment bankers are at the sharp end of job cutsRussian index slumpsIt seems like a different age, but it was only recently that Moscow-based investment bankers had firms fighting to secure their services and could command pay packages commensurate with demand.Senior Moscow-based bankers and those covering the Russian markets asked for and got lucrative pay deals as local brokers and large international investment banks fought a hiring war to build their businesses in the country.Guaranteed packages in excess of $10m (€7.8m) were not unheard of and even junior staff with experience of the Russian markets received $1m guarantees to join rivals.In early 2007, Russian investment bank Alfa-Bank recruited the head of UBS’ Moscow office Ed Kaufman for a ...

Massive Foreign Reserves Outflow Puts Russia’s Ruble Trading Band Under Threat

Manuel Alvarez-Rivera (November 10th, 2008) Writes:
Russia's currency reserves, the third-biggest in the world, are falling steadily as tumbling oil prices and an exodus of capital are piling the pressure on the central bank and government policymakers to accept a devaluation in the ruble. Oil prices which are now down 60% from their july peak, slowing economic growth and increasing investor concern are steadily draining Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which fell 19 percent (to $484.6 billion) in the 12 weeks through Oct. 31. This is down from $598.1 billion in the week before the invasion of Southern Ossetia.Russia had been using the reserves to try and contain the upward movement in the ruble was thought to present a threat to the competitiveness of exports. But resistance is now becoming increasingly difficult in the fact of a 13 percent drop against the dollar since August 1.Bank Rossii began managing the ruble's exchange rate ...

No crisis detox for DTEK

Jason Corcoran (October 28th, 2008) Writes:
Business New Europe Jason Corcoran in Moscow October 28, 2008The richest man in Ukraine and reputedly the whole of the former Soviet Union, Rinat Akhmetov, is embarking on a bold acquisition programme to pick up cheap energy assets across Central and Eastern Europe at a time when other oligarchs in the region are sweating over making margin calls. Akhmetov, estimated by the Russian daily Kommersant to be worth $31.5bn, has largely been insulated from the international financial crisis due to the consistent demand for coal and electricity and his minimal exposure to the equity markets. DTEK, Akhmetov's main Ukraine-based energy holding, is now talking to banks about assembling a cash pile to target coal assets worth up to $500m in Russia and the rest of Central and Eastern Europe. "We are pretty ...

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