Currencies rally strong! China is upset with printing of dollars…The UN talks of a new currency…Unemployment rate rises to 9.7% And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long Holiday Weekend, that was quite good for yours truly! A great tailgate, a great Missouri Tigers victory, 3 of 4 for the Cardinals, a great end of summer bar-b-que at the Butler House, and a

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The $300 Trillion “Recovery” No One’s Talking About The biggest mega trend in 100 years is already taking over half the world. Early investors could stand to make initial gains of 237%, 139%, 163%, 356%, 341%, and 600% on six companies driving this trend. Click here for details.

The worst global recession since World War II is ending faster than previously thought, but the recovery will still be a slow one, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said today (Thursday).

For the combined economy across the Group of Seven (G7) nations, the OECD expects a contraction of 3.7% this year, down from the 4.1% drop it projected in June. Still, the organization sees ample spare production capacity, low levels of profitability, rising unemployment and “anemic” growth in incomes will keep an uptick in consumer demand in check, and it says the need remains high for businesses …

Hey… how ‘bout this rally!

The Dow was up 120 points yesterday. Now, we’re beating the bounce of 1930. The post-crash bounce in 1930 lasted 5 months. Ours began on March 9 th… so it is now in its sixth month.

And like 1930, people are coming to believe that recession is almost over… and happy times are here again.

Heck, we’re sure the trouble is behind us now; 53 economists said so!

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) — Recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s has begun as President Barack Obama’s fiscal stimulus — derided as insufficient and budget-busting months ago — takes effect, a survey of economists indicated.

“The economy will expand 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the median of 53 forecasts in the monthly Bloomberg News survey. Analysts lifted their estimate for the third quarter by

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Government budget hits all-time insanity… record monthly, year-to-date deficits… “Cash for clunkers” helps GM, but not economy… July retail sales stage surprise fall… Fed plans exit strategy, ends bond buys… why the FOMC is still not helping you… Byron King’s crude reality: How Canada could be the next Saudi Arabia…

It’s official: Our government ran a record $180.7 billion over budget in July, the Treasury Department said today. That’s just a bit over Wall Street expectations and just under the Congressional Budget Office estimate we reported Monday. Thus the government tab so far this fiscal year is a record $1.27 trillion, not the record $1.3 trillion the CBO guessed earlier this week. Phew… what a relief.

A few more scary details:

The budget deficit is still on track to exceed $1.8 trillion by October, the end of the fiscal year. That would be four times last year’s record budget July spending rose to over ...

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I suppose you could take a long-term position in an inverse Treasury ETF, Murray. But there are risks.

As you suggest in your blog, and as my recent report pointed out, the fact that Treasuries have a lower average volatility than equities means that an investor buying a leveraged or inverse Treasury ETF can expect the return of that fund over a month or two to stay relatively close to a simple multiple of the index.

That contrasts with the more volatile equity markets, where the numbers can go awry much faster.

The risk, of course, is that if the Treasury market takes a nosedive … which is what you’d be rooting for if you bought something like the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSE Arca: TBT) … it’s unlikely to do so in an orderly fashion.

In fact, if you look at the historical volatility of

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This week, Congress is taking up a relatively simple set of changes to how 401(k) plans work. And yet again, the Investment Company Institute picks the wrong side of the fight—the side of active management.

Back in 1999, I stood in front of an ICI meeting arguing for increases in portfolio disclosure requirements. At the time, it was hard to imagine the 10-year boom we've seen in ETF assets, and the increasing willingness of alpha-seeking managers to make daily disclosures of their portfolios. I was called naïve and foolish, and perhaps I was.

Yesterday, the Committee on Education & Labor kicked a bill (full text) for consideration down to Congress that feels awfully similar—it would require a boatload more disclosure of what really goes on inside 401(k) plans, and mandate the inclusion of at least one passively managed option for participants. (The bill's full name is the Fair Disclosure and Pension

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Commodity prices and world stocks rose while the U.S. dollar and government bond prices slipped on Friday when investors cautiously put money back into riskier assets.

U.S. crude pricesraced above $71 a barrel, extending a 2 percent gain the day before, after rebel attacks on Nigerian oil facilities disrupted supply. Firmer oil prices supported metal prices, with gold edging above $940 to a one-week high.

Global equities were also in demand, with the MSCI world equity index advancing 0.9 percent and the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 up 0.2 percent.

The MSCI world equity index is up more than 21 percent this quarter, on track for the biggest quarterly gain in its 20-year history.

“It is clear that the rebound in global equity markets has lost some steam,” Barclays Wealth said in a note.

“It appears to us that stocks are now broadly fairly valued, having erased their previous undervaluation faster than expected. Further share price gains may

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Treasury Releases Compensation Rules for TARP FirmsLast evening, the Treasury released new rules for compensation of top executives at the firms that received TARP bailout funds. The rules can be seen here.Specifically, the rules limit compensation for senior executives and other highly paid employees at companies receiving TARP funds, including limits on bonus payments (to one-third of total compensation) and curtailment of Golden Parachutes. Further, the bonuses paid to senior executive officers and the next 20 most highly compensated employees will be subject to a "clawback" provision if the payment was based on materially inaccurate performance criteria.Under the rules, the Treasury appointed Kenneth R. Feinberg as the Special Master for TARP Executive Compensation. Mr. Feinberg will review payments and compensation plans for the executives and the 100 most highly compensated employees of seven TARP recipients that have received exceptional assistance, AIG ...

Commodities, particularly oil and gas have continued to run. Crude oil has now reached nearly $70/barrel. Is it the dollar weakening? An economic rebound? Or is it speculation? I'd say its a little of all three. br /br /1) The dollar has weakened, and this has helped as it typically has a negative correlation to oil prices. Not a huge factor yet.br /br /2) There have been signs the economy is stabilizing, but to me, you cannot say we've seen a return to growth. We have massive efforts by the Fed, Treasury, and Washington (stimulus) to make this economy turn. Job numbers have improved, but we're still looking at 9.4% unemployment. This economy will not strengthen without the consumer.br /br /3) Speculation is rampant. Traders love commodities and particularly oil. a href="http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/volume-explosion-seen-in-goldman-sachs.html"Zero Hedge had a post about this yesterday/a. ...