by Menzie Chinn: As I type this post, the President is proposing once again drilling in ANWR, noting the "enormous" benefits. [1] [2] [3] I'd like to just note the analysis his Administration's DoE just published last month. From Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, published May 2008: Summary The opening of the ANWR 1002 Area to oil and natural gas development is projected to increase domestic crude oil production starting in 2018. In the mean ANWR oil resource case, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR reaches 780,000 barrels per day in 2027 and then declines to 710,000 barrels per day in 2030. In the low and high ANWR oil resource cases, additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR peaks in 2028 at 510,000 ...

I am really gritting my teeth at this missed opportunity for Trina Solar (TSL) management to finally reward its shareholders... some of which have been sticking with (or around) them since last summer, only to be disappointed time after time. My long term thesis on this name has not changed, and I believe the 2nd half of the year will be explosive. It still trades at a huge discount to the group, which most likely is (a) management discount - a leadership team that loves to surprise us with new adventures that no one else in the group embarks upon - Wall Street however hates surprises and (b) potential dilutive equity offering to fund 2009 operations coming later in the year. While most people would be more concerned with (b), I am more concerned with (a). Last year they surprised the Street with a big annual ...

First, I have not done this properly, thank you for the various suggestions left toward the farmland project I have been working on. I have not really thanked you all properly.This is has been a peculiarly busy week, not trading but with every other aspect of my life, so just a few stray items to chew on today.Here is a link to a lengthy speech by Dennis Gartman. Despite how long it is it does read very quickly. One thing he said, which I cannot vouch for but is interesting if correct "In the last 30 centuries, China has been the dominant economy in the world for 28 of them. It’s just a return to the mean as China now becomes the dominant demand-oriented society in the world." I don't doubt the general idea I just don't know about 28 out of 30....

On May 21 I opened a position in Ultrashort Oil & Gas [May 21: Oil Looks Toppy to Me - Starting Ultrashort Oil & Gas (DUG)] I wroteThis type of run simply looks overextended and toppy to me - I believe sooner rather than later (probably within a week or two) we are going to see a sharp reversal in oil to the downside. And it will take the commodities with it. Things have now moved to purely speculative mode - who else is left to buy and who is not on this train? I doubt very many....I am going to buy Ultrashort Oil & Gas (DUG) as a "trade", not investment. This ETF has destroyed so many people but when it reverses I believe it will be powerful (this does not short oil directly but shorts a whole bunch of exploration companies) And ...