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And Then There’s This…Friday, December 12th, 2008

Contrarian Profits (December 12th, 2008) Writes:

After the big day that gold and silver had on Wednesday, I wasn’t surprised to see them get taken down the moment that Globex trading started in the Far East on Thursday morning. That only lasted until 1:00 p.m. yesterday afternoon in Hong Kong, as the dollar began a serious decline. With that, gold and silver began a steady rise that lasted until moments before the Comex opened. Then they both ran into brick walls…and the highs for the day were in. After that, it made no difference how much the dollar fell, the boyz made sure that the prices went nowhere from that point on.

Then mysteriously, and in unison, the Dow, gold, silver…and their respective shares…headed south while the dollar had a smallish rally. I was speaking with John Embry yesterday while this was going on, and there was no doubt in his mind that the boyz were out

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A HUGE Currency Rally!

Contrarian Profits (December 11th, 2008) Writes:

Another currency rally….  SNB cuts another 50 BPS!  Budget Deficit continues to widen!  Treasury yields go south for the winter! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! It’s been quite the rally this week in the currencies led by the euro, which is like old times, eh? The Big Dog on the porch finally gets to stretch its legs and chase the dollar down the street! It’s been a long time since we’ve seen this go on for more than a day. Yes, we’ve seen one day spikes, and even two day rallies turn into false dawns, but this one has lasted about a week now. Ever since last Friday’s awful Jobs Jamboree, the tide has turned, and the Trading Theme that has held the currencies in a full nelson since the end of July, could very well be on the way out the door.

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Euro Surges to 6-wk High vs Dollar; SNB Cuts Rates

Contrarian Profits (December 11th, 2008) Writes:

Euro hits 6-wk high at $1.3158 , dollar index falls… ECB’s Stark comments cool rate cut expectations… SNB cuts rates by 50 bps, as expected… U.S. auto deal makes progress, rocky road seen in Senate

The euro hit a six-week high against a broadly weaker dollar on Thursday with doubts creeping in as to whether pent-up demand for the U.S. currency over the year-end will be as strong as previously thought.

Implied interest rate spreads also moved in the euro’s favor after European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark said late on Wednesday the bank did not have a lot of room for manoeuvre on rates after its cut last week.

Having climbed on a wave of risk aversion in recent months in tandem with the low-yielding Japanese yen, some analysts said further dollar demand into the year-end from deleveraging flows might be showing some sign of

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And Then There’s This…Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008

Contrarian Profits (December 3rd, 2008) Writes:

Gold and silver didn’t do a lot in early Far East trading on Tuesday. The price for both metals bottomed very early in London…and from there a solid rally in both metals ensued…which ended shortly after the Comex opened for business…and that was it for the day.

The usual NY gold commentator had the following yesterday…”News reports indicate that Turkey imported 15 tonnes of gold in November. Considering that the Turkish currency has slumped by some 30% in the last couple of months, this is actually quite remarkable. Probably it reflects the volume of Turkish imports subsequently re-exported to countries to the south…Today’s ECB (European Central Bank) weekly statement of condition reports that ‘gold and gold receivables’ dropped E115 Mm, which ‘reflected’ gold sales by two captive CBs. At 5.7 tonnes, this is somewhat higher than of late (last week’s quantum was 2.83 tonnes), but is still small even compared to

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Maybe It’s Time For A Change?

Contrarian Profits (November 26th, 2008) Writes:

Currencies continue to rally…  More Stimulus…  Data shows more rot on the vine… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Another rally day in the currencies yesterday… One that wasn’t as pronounced as Monday’s 3-cent rally… But a rally just the same, and at one point, the euro was trading above 1.30… Hadn’t seen that level in a while, so welcome back to the 1.30 level, Mr. euro…

Someone sent me a note the other day, and said, why don’t you talk about Australia, Canada, and Swiss more? Hmmmm… Maybe they don’t read the Pfennig “every day”… But those currencies are in my notes most days, and if they are not, they are a part of the overall direction in currencies that are being pushed down by the Trading Theme… But in the spirit of the season…

Aussie dollars have rebounded nicely the last three days, but this is really putting a band-aid on a bullet

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Swiss National Bank Cut Rates 100 BPS!

Contrarian Profits (November 20th, 2008) Writes:

Trading Theme returns…  Automakers’ bailout vote today…  Not using all your arrows…  Housing Starts go back to 1959! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

OK… Whew! What an awful day yesterday for the currencies… In the morning, they ere in rally mode with the euro gaining ground to well within the 1.27 handle. But then the Trading Theme set in, and those gains were wiped out. The Trading Theme was set off by the awful Housing data, which reminded everyone of the deep, dark , dangerous days ahead… I bought some euros, and watched them rise, and went off to do something else… When I returned, they had fallen… UGH! The Japanese yen, however, rallied, as is the case with the Trading Theme… Risk trades get unwound, which benefits dollars, and yen. I’ve explained all this before, so I won’t get into it again, but there’s someone that has gone into the problems

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Why the Stock Market Relief of Late Last Week May Not Last

Contrarian Profits (October 20th, 2008) Writes:

While investors remain extremely concerned about the volatility of the U.S. stock market, the weakness of the American economy and the uncertainty of the global financial markets, last week brought “slight” relief from the excessive panic of the eight-trading-session losing streak.

Bear in mind that each new economic report, earnings statement, news report or trading session represents a new opportunity for fear and uncertainty to reemerge.

Fortunately, next week’s economic calendar remains quite light, although retailers may just weigh in with “doom-and-gloom” holiday predictions.  Earnings season may be weak as well (with even more pessimistic outlooks), so investors should not overreact even if Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), Halliburton Inc. (HAL), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and others fail to meet expectations.  Volatility should continue and the days of triple-digit index moves (often up and down in the same day) may be here for a while.

So try not to get so overwhelmed with the

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UBS and Credit Suisse Get Capital Infusions

Contrarian Profits (October 17th, 2008) Writes:

Swiss banking giant UBS AG (ADR: UBS) succumbed to government intervention yesterday (Thursday) and the country’s other banking powerhouse, Credit Suisse Group AG (ADR: CS) announced it would raise fresh capital from private shareholders after rebuffing central bank assistance.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will establish a fund to take on as much $60 billion of UBS’ risky assets. The central bank will also provide UBS with a cash injection of $5.2 billion (6 billion Swiss francs). The bank already has secured $27 billion in capital from private investors this year.

The SNB will support the new fund with as much as $54 billion in loans that will yield interest of 2.5 percentage points above the one-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). For its $5.2 billion cash infusion, the SNB will receive bonds convertible into a non-voting 9.3% equity stake.

“This operation is highly unusual, both

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