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Is China’s GDP One Big Lie?

Irwin Greenstein (February 9th, 2009) Writes:

Investors often look to a country’s GDP to determine whether or not invest in its markets, but when it comes to China the official rate of growth could be exaggerated based on a new, revealing data.

A little-known indicator surfaced as China was preparing to attend the first meeting of the Committee on Statistics under the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, held in Bangkok, Thailand, from February 4-6.

An article in the People’s Daily called into question the final official GDP numbers for 2008 issued by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Apparently, the 6.8% positive growth released in Q4 2008 did not correlate with the negative growth in China’s power consumption.

Now it seems that China will face a power glut this year, further calling into question its official GDP data.

The China Electricity Council (CEC) on Wednesday said in a report that demand for energy is expected

...

China Accelerates Filling Up Its Oil Reserves

Larry Edelson (January 7th, 2009) Writes:
pJan 5, 2009 (WALL STREET JOURNAL) -- As the U.S. seeks to stockpile oil, China has been doing the same, observers say, and is expected to quicken the pace -- a development that already may be helping to boost oil prices./ppOn Friday, the U.S. Department of Energy said that amid low oil prices, it aims to fill the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to capacity this year./ppThat news followed a rare public statement last week from China's top energy official, Zhang Guobao, head of the National Energy Administration, in the People's Daily newspaper that China should take advantage of the falling global energy demand to increase its oil reserves. Mr Zhang said China will quot;encourage companies to utilize idle storage capacity to increase inventories.quot;/ppOil prices have been rising lately. On Friday, oil closed up 3.9% to $46.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange./ppThough China doesn't disclose its oil inventories ...

China’s Factories Go Up-Market, Giving Investors Pause

Irwin Greenstein (January 6th, 2009) Writes:

“Made in China” is a hair-trigger slogan that would often ignite a tirade about lost jobs, junky products and sweatshop labor. Well, it looks like “Made in China” will be a relic of the past as the Communist Party goes up-market.

The People’s Daily reported today that China’s Coordination Bureau under Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) will replace “Made in China” with “Created in China.” The intent is show the world that China is no longer a copycat maker of disposable junk, but has risen to become a true manufacturing innovator.

Why should investors care?

Because China’s transition to a high-quality manufacturer comes at a time when the economy is softening — perhaps prolonging a slump in stocks, real estate and exports.

For example, the Wall Street Journal ran a story today that speculated China’s economy could be worse than stated by government agencies.

China’s economic policy has been to maintain a minimum

...

China 2009: More Of The Same

Irwin Greenstein (December 23rd, 2008) Writes:

Investors interested in putting their money into China next year may want to look elsewhere for potential gains. It seems that 2009 will be a repeat of 2008, according to a story in today’s People’s Daily.

The news organ of the China’s Communist Party cited the China Securities Journal as saying that the global financial crisis will continue to exert pressure on China’s economic health.

The forecast was produced at the recent Central Economic Working Conference. The agenda of the meeting was to set the economic keynote for 2009 as “maintaining growth, boosting domestic demands and adjusting the economic structure,” the People’s Daily reported.

The annual conference is held from Dec. 8 to Dec.10. It helps Beijing set economic goals and reforms for the coming year. Six new challenges were identified for next year in order to maintain growth for the Chinese economy.

First, there was recognition by members of the conference that

...

Five Ways to Profit From China’s $585 Billion Stimulus Plan

Martin Hutchinson (November 11th, 2008) Writes:
The $585 billion (RMB4 trillion) stimulus package that China announced Sunday may or may not help China’s economy. But with investments in low-income housing, water and energy projects, airports, disaster relief – and $100 billion for new railroads – over the next two years, this financial package provides oodles of opportunities for investors. There is no doubt China needs infrastructure. Now the world’s fourth-largest economy, China has grown so rapidly that many of its services are stretched beyond belief. Equally, it is not so certain that the government knows what infrastructure to build, or that it can be built, without hopeless corruption. For instance, the Three Gorges Dam became a global watchword for waste and environmental destruction, while the fancy toll roads built between major cities are still very underutilized, because the tolls are too high for all but the ...

Happy Friday — I.O.U.S.A

Sean Brodrick (August 22nd, 2008) Writes:

It’s the weekend. You should go see the movie “I.O.U.S.A.” Some very smart people I know at Agora are deeply involved in the making of this movie. Here’s Roger Ebert’s review.

In Other News ...

China’s Oil Thirst Hits New High

China's oil demand growth hit a two-year high in July but the pre-Olympic spurt will likely fall off in the autumn, undermined by high prices, global economic woes and the end of official pressure to stockpile for the games.

XX Sean’s note – funny, but I’d think that after the Olympics (or at least, after the Para-lympics), China’s oil demand will ramp up again. We’ll have to see.

China Warns on Winter Energy Supply

China warned on Thursday that its energy supply problems were likely to last into winter as it struggles to ensure stable sources of coal, oil and power, the People's Daily reported, citing a senior

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