This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Rob Arnott (Research Affiliates) The “3-D” hurricane force headwind, November 2009. The heroic rally of the past eight months has many thinking the good ole days are back and that mainstream 60/40 investing is alive and well. But flourishing pines at the mountain’s base do not constitute a thriving and shelter-providing forest in the heights above. A longer term perspective reveals that some powerful gales of inflation may surprise us on the trail to real returns over the coming decades. Most investors have very little invested in assets that are likely to serve them well in that brave new world. None of these observations is likely to help us in the weeks and months ahead. But, the long term does matter; institutional

We have just received a copy of an open letter from Amnesty International Canada to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper in advance of his upcoming trip to the forthcoming APEC meeting in Singapore, followed by a visit to India. The letter urges Prime Minister Harper to uphold Canada's well-known reputation as a staunch human rights supporter by raising concerns with and presenting recommendations to Singapore authorities regarding the case of Dr. Chee Soon Juan and other civil society representatives and to address ongoing human rights challenges in India. Below is an excerpt from the letter, followed by a link that will allow you access to the letter in full.

Singapore has two realities: its appearance as a progressive country with regular elections and economic success; and its record of human rights violations designed

Details are in the works for the launch of the first aluminum-backed exchange-traded fund, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.

Though Glencore International, the world's biggest commodity trader, and Credit Suisse Group are still looking for both an ETF provider and regulatory approval, the new ETF is said to reflect growing interest in physically backed commodity products in the face of looming stricter U.S. regulation in the futures markets.

Abundant supplies of aluminum following a drop in demand associated with the economic downturn is also encouraging the creation of the ETF as a way to help soak up some of that supply and keep prices firm.

Recently, the price of aluminum on the London Metal Exchange has soared, trading some 50 percent higher than the seven-year lows it hit earlier this year, and though some analysts see further growth ahead, the massive inventory overhang could pose a threat to those gains. In fact, LME

Source: Anthony Jenkins, The Globe and Mail, September 16, 2009.

Did you enjoy this post? If so, click here to subscribe to updates to Investment Postcards from Cape Town by e-mail.

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Brett Arends (The Wall Street Journal): What price suits gold?, September 16, 2009. Gold bullion just crossed $1,000 an ounce. But what’s it really worth? Leading gold bugs see prices tripling someday, but others say its current level is about right.

• Willem Buiter (Financial Times): Expect little and you may yet be disappointed, September 15, 2009. Until yesterday’s defeat of Roger Federer in the final of the US Open at Flushing Meadows, the most disappointing development this year was the performance of president Barack Obama and his administration - and my expectations were modest to begin with.

• Joseph Stiglitz (The Guardian): For all Obama’s talk of overhaul, the US has failed to wind in

This post is a guest contribution by Rebecca Wilder*, author of the of the News N Economics blog.

This week, a compilation of indicators shows that the recovery is tentative at best - more likely, a global bottom has not yet been found. The leading indicators are stronger in some countries; exports are still declining at an annual pace of 20+ percent but stabilizing; and volatile retail sales growth rates are, well, quirky. Must wait for a trend - the US stock market(s) certainly see one coming!

In June, offset by the housing component, the Canadian leading indicator index slides for the second month. In contrast, the US leading indicator took its third consecutive bump. The leading indicator index is more like a coincident index, as many of the components are already known. According to the Conference Board (US), the

Trading legend Dennis Gartman is one of the most influential market commentators out there. He is what we like to call here at Notes an “investor’s investor.” That is, he’s a market veteran who speaks directly to other traders and investors.

He is best known for his daily newsletter, The Gartman Letter, which is read with morning coffees by countless Wall Street operators. In short, Gartman is an underground investor par excellence. Gartman recently gave an interview with Canada’s The Globe and Mail. In it, he reveals his stance on the inflation/deflation argument and how to best hedge against an inflationary outcome.

Gartman is not your typical inflation hawk. He sees deflation and inflation taking hold in the future: inflation in raw materials prices “sooner rather than later” and deflation in wages. When asked, “Will we have inflation or deflation?” his answer is “Yes.”

For those who want to hedge against inflation, however, Gartman has perhaps the