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Snapshot Observations on the Global Economic Crisis

Robert Amsterdam (September 22nd, 2009) Writes:
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CNN Money is running an interesting feature by David Goldman entitled "10 countries, 10 solutions" which details the particularities of the global economic crisis facing 10 key countries. In typical old-media fashion, the layout makes no sense from a user-friendliness perspective, so I'm going to take significant liberties in reposting their original content. They also have a single table layout of the 10 countries here. Time Warner lawyers, if you're watching this, get your editorial guys to put their content into a more sensible format that doesn't require constant clicking and I won't have to go such lengths to discuss it and in turn will actually drive more traffic to your site. Got that? Good. Now then, first some

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Daniel Gross On Mellowing Japan

Claus Vistesen (July 20th, 2009) Writes:

Edward is already plugging this article by Daniel Gross over at Demography.Matters but I think it is important enough to deserve circulation here at Alpha.Sources too. Basically, Daniel gets to the heart of the matter in terms of Japan when he argues that one of the principal reasons that Japan is not rising is that it has failed to do the homework in the human capital department or as Gross phrases it; while Japan is still leading in engineering, this is not the case with respect to social engineering.

Japan still retains its lead in engineering. A showroom at Panasonic's headquarters displayed a heated, multifunction toilet seat that conserves energy. (Wouldn't leaving the seat cold conserve even more?) The sleek Shinkansen bullet trains roll up to their appointed spots on time. TKX, an 87-year-old Osaka-based company that makes abrasives, has adapted its expertise to cutting silicon ingots into wafers

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China Is Back On The G-9 Docket

Contrarian Profits (July 6th, 2009) Writes:

Risk Aversion is strong once again…  Currencies get sold…  What’s China really up to?  RBA to leave rates unchanged? And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Some people have the day off today, so we’ll probably not be back in full force until tomorrow… Not that we’ve been in full force, as a workforce in the U.S. for some time… But that’s another story for another day! Today is a new day, and new week!

Friday’s thinned out markets were not what the currencies wanted to see, as the bias to Risk Aversion was magnified in the thinned out markets, only making the selling of the currencies even worse… Some “levels” were hit in the thinned out markets, and that caused even more selling in the overnight markets as Japan and Asia came on board.

I’m really kind of shocked at the Asian selling… You may recall that last week

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More Than “A Whiff” Of Deflation In Japan

Edward Hugh (June 2nd, 2009) Writes:
Well, as Claus pointed out in his last post, Japanese data is pretty much a mixed bag at the moment. Industrial output shot up in April, and the May PMI data suggested that the easing of manufacturing contraction continued in May. However household spending and retail sales fell, unemployment rose, and the CPI reading suggested the Japanese economy is once more getting itself firmly wedged in inflation territory. So while the industrial data offers some much needed short term relief, the mid term outlook is still pretty bleak. Industrial Output Surges Well, as Bloomberg kindly pointed out, industrial output surged the most in 56 years in April. Production rose 5.2% from March, marking the second monthly gain, according to data from the Trade Ministry. The increase was faster than the 3.3 percent consensus forecast, and companies ...
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Toyota’s (TM) First Operating Loss Since 1938 Spells Trouble for Japanese Economy

Contrarian Profits (December 23rd, 2008) Writes:

Joining a chorus of ailing U.S. automakers, Toyota Motor Co. (TM) yesterday (Monday) forecast its first operating loss in 71 years on plummeting demand and sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen. The announcement prompted Moody’s Investors Service to consider downgrading the company’s top-rated credit.

But the news may have bigger implications for Japan’s entire economy, as the country’s exports continue to take a beating from sagging worldwide demand for its products.

Japanese exports plunged 26.7% in November from a year ago. Shipments to the U.S. slid an unprecedented 34%, Japan’s Finance Ministry said. A strong yen, which makes Japanese goods more expensive, combined with deflated consumer spending, is hammering Japanese exporters.

Toyota will post a $1.7 billion (150 billion yen) loss in the year through March, it said in a statement, scrapping a previous forecast of a $6.6 billion. The last time Toyota posted an operating loss

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Japan’s Contraction Is Evidently Far Worse Than Previously Estimated

Edward Hugh (December 17th, 2008) Writes:
by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Yesterday's comments by Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa that conditions in Japan's economy are severe and that monetary conditions are rapidly tightening should not be taken lightly in my opinion. Viewed alongside last weeks data revision which showed that Japan’s gross domestic product contracted much more rapidly in the third quarter than initially thought, and the recent admission by Japan’s Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa that employment conditions are also nowbecoming “severe.” it is clear that we are in the process of settling-in for what promises to be quite a long and hard recession.br /br /Revised data released last week showed that gross domestic product fell on quarter-by-quarter basis by 0.5 percent during the three months up to September, as compared with the preliminary estimate of only a 0.1 per cent decline. Year on year, the economy is now thought to have also contracted by ...

Bullish Signs For Gold

Ed Bugos (December 5th, 2008) Writes:

Last week’s gold rally has fizzled out. But Ed Bugos says we could be in line for very bullish move. Outside of Japan, countries are inflating rapidly, which is extremely bearish for paper currency. And the supply and demand fundamentals of physical gold remain bullish.

More from The Daily Reckoning:

The late November rally in gold prices wasn’t quite as spectacular as mid-September’s gain, but it was still impressive. There was good follow-through too, though the momentum softened as bulls knocked on resistance near $850.

The rally was a no-brainer. There is a strong line of support at $700, which was resistance during 2006 and the first half of 2007. Moreover, the market was, and is, oversold.

The catalyst was news that the U.S. government had to bail out Citigroup (NYSE:C), the world’s largest bank by revenues. The event has given way to new concerns about the economy, which weighed on

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And Then There’s This… Monday, November 3, 2008

Contrarian Profits (November 3rd, 2008) Writes:

In early Friday morning trading in the Far East, both gold and silver were taken down sharply. Volume was thin in both metals, so it wasn’t hard for someone to influence the price. Gold gained most of it back, but once the Sydney close was in…the price pressure showed up again until shortly after London opened…then rose again until the London p.m. fix was in…and it was straight down hill from there.

The low price of the day was set at the Comex close. All in all, the gold price was dropped $60 in a thirty four hour period…from a high of $776 at 4:00 a.m. New York time on October 30th…to the low at the Comex close at 1:30 p.m. New York time yesterday. I’m sure that the boyz were proud of their month-end tape-painting…which is exactly what it was.

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And Then There’s This… Monday, November 3, 2008

Contrarian Profits (November 3rd, 2008) Writes:

In early Friday morning trading in the Far East, both gold and silver were taken down sharply. Volume was thin in both metals, so it wasn’t hard for someone to influence the price. Gold gained most of it back, but once the Sydney close was in…the price pressure showed up again until shortly after London opened…then rose again until the London p.m. fix was in…and it was straight down hill from there.

The low price of the day was set at the Comex close. All in all, the gold price was dropped $60 in a thirty four hour period…from a high of $776 at 4:00 a.m. New York time on October 30th…to the low at the Comex close at 1:30 p.m. New York time yesterday. I’m sure that the boyz were proud of their month-end tape-painting…which is exactly what it was.

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Spooky Consumer Data, Underwater Mortgages, Time to Buy the Bounce? Don’t Vote, and More!

Contrarian Profits (October 31st, 2008) Writes:

Consumer shows spooky signs of weakness… recession now unavoidable? How’s your 401(k)? Some scary stats on the average retirement savings plan. Haunting mortgage data… 10 million Americans suffer “negative equity”. U.S. finance capitalism dead or dying… Byron King on the new paradigm for global economic power. Eric Fry on investing during the post-crash bounce. Plus, one “surefire” sector during these frightening times.

Boo!

We begin today with a Halloween hypothetical: If you’re a mainstream economist or financial journalist, what’s the scariest possible scenario that could arise from an economic crisis?

Answer: That the ephemeral specter of the American consumer, whose purchases now make up over 70% of economic activity in I.O.U.S.A., would stop spending.

Uh-ho. In the third quarter

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