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Roubini’s RGE: Global monetary policy outlook

Prieur du Plessis (November 12th, 2009) Writes:

The report below comes courtesy of Nouriel Roubini’s team of analysts at RGE, taking a look at some recent monetary policy trends in advanced economies. This content is excerpted from a longer piece, “Global Monetary Policy Review,” which includes in-depth analysis of when the world’s emerging markets might shift interest rate strategy. However, the longer piece is available only on a subscription basis.

Last week was a busy one for the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). Policymaking is tricky when different asset classes are sending very different signals about the economy. However, those different signals are themselves a byproduct of policy. In the US, bond markets are discounting a sluggish U-shaped recovery or even a double-dip recession, while risky markets are signaling a strong V-shaped recovery ahead. Which is right? While RGE leans towards the

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The week ahead

Prieur du Plessis (November 2nd, 2009) Writes:

The video clips below provide a handy summary of the reports expected on the economic, financial and corporate front around the globe during the week ahead.

US: Employment, autos, rates

Jobless numbers, auto-sales figures and an FOMC meeting are due in the first week of November. Then there’s the progress of the health-care overhaul in Washington and more.

Europe: BOE meeting, UBS results

The Bank of England may take steps to buy up to 50 billion pounds more of assets on Thursday to help the UK escape recession. Earnings are due from UBS, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Total, Adidas and Deutsche Telekom among many others.

Asia: Carmakers in focus

Toyota, the world’s largest carmaker by sales, and

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Two Sagging Economies… Two Laid-Back Banks

Investment U (October 9th, 2009) Writes:

Two Sagging Economies… Two Laid-Back Banks

by Martin Denholm, Senior Editor

Anemic. Stagnant. Plodding.

Pick your favorite… it doesn’t matter. They all describe the state of the British and Eurozone economies.

Two weeks before the official third quarter U.K. GDP figure is released, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) delivered a somber verdict. The group says it actually didn’t grow at all, confounding those who said the economy started growing again.

Cue a fresh round of some good, old-fashioned British grumbling.

The culprit: a 2.5% fall in industrial production in August, as oil demand dropped. Still, neutral is better than reverse – a gear that Britain had driven in for 2009 up to that point, posting a 2.4% first-quarter slump and 0.6% second-quarter decline.

It’s not alone either. Its European neighbors are also backpedaling. The latest quarterly figure from Eurostat shows that the

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Patriot Day

Contrarian Profits (September 11th, 2009) Writes:

Currencies have strong rally!  Trade Deficit jumps 16.3% in July!  HR 1207 Gets a hearing!  Gold gets back to $1,000! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Happy Friday to one and all! Today is Patriot Day in the U.S. and a day that brings back memories of cowardly attacks on our country 8 years ago. I remember the shock and horror on everyone’s faces, and that image will remain with me to the grave. I also remember trying to write the Pfennig the “day after”… It just didn’t seem that important of a thing to do, but a reader told me that to keep things as “normal” as possible was the best thing I could do… So… I wrote…

OK… The currencies, and this time I mean the majority of them not just euro and yen, added to their gains this week VS the dollar yesterday… The Big Dog, euro, is once again

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Cautiously Positive?

Contrarian Profits (September 10th, 2009) Writes:

Euro & yen add to gains…RBNZ disappoints…Foreclosures continue to stack up! BOE & BOC meet today…And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Thrillin’ Thursday to you! Ahhh! A change! Just thought that with the thrilling victories my beloved Cardinals have been accumulating, that Thrillin’ would be a nice change to our Thursday lineup!

Front and Center this morning… The currencies added to their gains this week yesterday, albeit small gains, but gains nonetheless. The Fed’s Beige Book was “cautiously positive”… And… Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand met, and left rates unchanged as suspected… This and more as we begin our Thrillin’ Thursday!

The Big Dog euro has been off the porch chasing the dollar down the

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Video-o-rama: Stabilization benefits risky assets

Prieur du Plessis (August 8th, 2009) Writes:

Stock markets recorded another strong week as further signs of economic stabilization emerged. The S&P 500 Index worked its way back to above the 1,000 level on Friday, and more upside lies ahead said Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs’ market strategist, as she expected the Index to reach the 1,100 mark by year end.

This week’s batch of video clips not only covers the outlook for stock markets, but also discussions about the economy’s transition from recession to recovery and other topical issues. Appearing on camera are Jeffry Sachs, Robert Shiller, Larry Summers, Lakshman Achuthan, Joseph Stiglitz, David Rosenberg and David Hickey.

The selection starts off with two academics - Jeffrey Sachs and Robert Shiller - and concludes with a discussion about the “man-cession” - older white male workers being among the hardest hit by job losses.

Fora.tv: Jeffrey Sachs - global effects of crisis “Jeffrey Sachs, Director

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Spending More than We (the U.S.) Make…

Contrarian Profits (August 6th, 2009) Writes:

Currencies trade in a tight range…Pesos, loonies and reals in the spotlight…The Mogambo on a Thursday!YAHOO!…Jobs reports dominate today & tomorrow…And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Once again yesterday, we traded all day in a very tight range with the currencies. The ADP/Challenger data didn’t give anyone a warm and fuzzy about the labor picture, and tax receipts are in the news… So, let’s go to the tape!

OK, front and center this morning, I have to talk about this deal with tax receipts in this country. So, I’ve chronicled the April and June debacles for tax receipts, but just in case someone is new to class, and missed that, let’s review… The U.S. used to count on the months of April and June for HUGE cash receipts from tax returns, but this year, both April and June’s tax receipts were so bad, the expenditures

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Risk Returns… Slowly

Contrarian Profits (July 9th, 2009) Writes:

Currencies rebound…  G-8 has no fireworks…  Aussie / China and coal… Entitlements… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! I’m late, I’m late! I don’t believe I ever heard the alarm go off this morning! I overslept by more than an hour, and will still be here more than an hour before any sign of someone else! But! That puts me behind by more than an hour today… I’ve got to play catch-up! So, let’s get this Tub Thumpin’ Thursday going!

Well… Let’s see… G-8 never had the opportunity to shoot fireworks because China’s leader had to return home to deal with the street riots going on in his country. So… The call for a replacement for the dollar as the reserve currency will have to wait for another day! And, with that news, the dollar got to remain in the sunlight, and bask in the glory of being

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The Magical Currency Tour

Contrarian Profits (June 4th, 2009) Writes:

Yesterday was an absolute “10” on the crazy meter, and yet “We the People” just continue to sit and take whatever the government and media tell us is “best for us in these uncommon times.” I’ve got some interesting words on this later in the letter… It’s time for me to get on my soapbox once again, so… At least I’ve prepared you! But first… Some currency news!

Well… Yesterday, I left you with the thought that the currencies were selling off, after the Asian central banks all made statements regarding their support of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency… Here are some further thoughts on that.

Roll up to the mystery tour… The Magical Mystery Tour is waiting to take you away…

Yes… It’s U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner’s Magical Mystery Tour (which should be re-named the Magical Currency Tour)! OK… Remember yesterday I told you the Asian countries of S. Korea,

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Bill Bonner: How ‘Counterfeit Money’ is Taking Over the World Economy

Contrarian Profits (June 1st, 2009) Writes:

We keep having bad dreams about all the phony money central banks are creating to ‘fix’ the economy. This is not a figure of speech. We are actually having nightmares about this. We wake up in cold sweats.

The thing that bothers us most is the supposed solution to the problem – more easy money – is also the intrinsic cause. Governments around the world want to “reinflate” the economy. But we know there’s a fine line between “reinflation” and “inflation.” Hence our uneasy sleep.

Will’s father, Bill, has made a quick tally of the funny money entering the system. “The US Federal Reserve,” he writes in The Daily Reckoning, “has been authorized to “print” $1.75 trillion worth of new money in order to buy Treasury bonds. The Bank of England has its own program – worth £75 billion, so far. Even Switzerland has been printing money – so

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