The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said yesterday (Thursday) that it would keep production quotas at 24.845 million bpd and urge members to adhere to targets, as global demand has yet to return in full.

However, a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated that demand is recovering more quickly than previously thought, and that OPEC may be playing catch-up as the global recovery gathers steam.

The IEA increased its outlook for global oil demand by nearly 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2009 and 2010, to 84.4 million and 85.7 million bpd respectively.

Perhaps the biggest reason for the increase was surging demand in China, where the Red Dragon’s $587 billion (4 trillion yuan) stimulus plan has resuscitated manufacturing and helped China grow into the world’s largest auto market.

China’s imports of oil hit a record high in July, soaring 18% from the month prior to 19.63 million metric

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A rise in existing home sales last month shows things are getting better in the U.S. housing market, but the still-dire unemployment situation and the looming possibility of a jobless recovery may halt the rally by the end of the year. That makes the extension of an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers imperative.

Existing home sales rose 7.2% to a 5.24 million annual rate in July, the most since August 2007 and the fourth straight month the figure increased, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Friday. Year-over-year sales grew 5%, the increase since September 2007, just before the markets came crashing down the following month.

“The housing market has decisively turned for the better,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales.”

Rising sales numbers

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Even as investors get more and more bullish about the outlook for the U.S. economy, the economy’s underlying foundation continues to erode.

In a report to be released this week, the Obama administration will boost its 10-year projection for the federal budget deficit to about $9 trillion – an increase of roughly $2 trillion, or 29%, from its prior projection, Fox News reported over the weekend, citing a source from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

The new cumulative deficit projection – for 2010-2019 – replaces the administration’s previous estimate of $7.108 trillion. Changes in budget projections – whether they result in a surplus or a deficit – are often refined as economic conditions change. This new projection was necessary because the recession has gone on for so long, causing federal tax receipts to plunge – and because the economic rebound will be prolonged and weak, resulting

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China’s economy grew by 7.9% in the second quarter, exceeding most analysts’ expectations, and lending credence to Beijing’s goal of 8% annual growth. Now, with the nation awash in liquidity and the economy picking up steam, the only task ahead of the central government is deciding when to rein in lending and let the economy stand on its own two feet.

The momentum behind China’s economy is staggering.

“China is increasingly becoming a responsible citizen in the global community,” economist Allen Sinai of Decision Economics told The Associated Press. “No longer lawless, no longer difficult to deal with, much more responsible. It is now a powerhouse among economies and finance. And it’s a rich country.”

In just the past few weeks, two of the world’s key global institutions – the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – and a large swath of investment banks raised their 2009

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With the global economy on the mend, could gold be gearing up for another record-setting run? It sure looks that way. 

After peaking north of the $1,000 per ounce price level last year, gold hit a stumbling block when deflationary fears in the world’s largest economy sucked the air out of commodities prices and sent hoards of investors stampeding into the safe-haven of U.S. Treasuries, and helped spawn a rebound in the U.S. dollar.

Since that time, the global economic outlook - especially beyond U.S. borders - has improved, and gold prices have stabilized.

The next step - many gold bulls say - is for the yellow metal to make a run for new highs.

Whipsaw Trading Patterns

Gold started 2009 at about $870 an ounce - down substantially from early 2008 when prices hit a record-high $1033.90, but significantly higher than the $712.30 an ounce it was trading at in mid-November.

Then, when talk of inflation

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[Editor's Note: If you're new to the commodities-investing arena, and are uncertain about the landscape - or even if you're an "old hand" at natural-resource stocks, but want some insights into the new profit plays and new players - consider hiring a guide: Money Morning Contributing Editor Peter Krauth, a recognized expert in metals, mining and energy stocks, is also the editor of the Global Resource Alert trading service, which ferrets out companies poised to profit from the so-called “Secular Bull Market” in commodities. A former portfolio advisor, Krauth continues to work out of resource-rich Canada, which keeps him close to most of the companies he researches. Against the growing global financial malaise, Krauth says that commodities are among the most-profitable and least-risky investments available, and notes that this may well be the most powerful bull market for commodities we’ll see in our lifetimes. He …

Shares of “Grand Theft Auto” maker Take-Two Interactive (Nasdaq:TTWO) took a drubbing yesterday (Tuesday) after it lowered its financial outlook and delayed key video game releases until its next fiscal year.

Take-Two now expects its loss to fall between 65 cents and 75 cents per share and revenue to be between $120 million and $130 million for the quarter ending July 31. Wall Street analysts were expecting a loss of 54 cents and revenue of $162.2 million.

The move reflects reduced sales of catalog products and lower than anticipated initial retailer orders of new releases due to a retail environment that is proving even more challenging Take-Two expected, it said in a statement.

The company delayed the release of “Bioshock 2,” “Max Payne 3” and “Red Dead Redemption” to fiscal 2010, which starts November 1. It is unclear whether any of these titles will ship in time for

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Are consumers’ happy days here again, or are the recent signs that growth in sales, confidence and an overall improvement in the economy just a mirage?

Confidence among U.S. consumers rose this month for a fourth straight time, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan (UM) preliminary index of consumer sentiment. The index increased to 69, which is less than what was forecast but still the highest level in nine months. May’s index was 68.7.

“Confidence is slowly but surely coming back,” James O’Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC told Bloomberg News. “In the next few months we should see more follow-through in the labor market, which in turn should give confidence a further boost, which in turn should lead to a sustained recovery in consumer spending.”

Another report from Investor’s Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence’s “Economic Optimism Index” shows consumer confidence rose to 50.8 this month from

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From our business news partner.

Deficit surges at agency that insures pensions

By DEB RIECHMANN Associated Press Writer

(AP:WASHINGTON) In an ominous setback, the government agency that insures the pensions of 44 million Americans has amassed a record $33.5 billion deficit _ triple what it was just six months ago.

The bleak financial snapshot, in a report obtained by The Associated Press, raises new fears that a federal bailout eventually will be needed for the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. The beleaguered agency is being saddled with the underfunded pension plans of companies going bankrupt in the worst economic slump since the Great Depression.

A rare midyear financial update requested by Congress shows the $11.1 billion deficit the agency posted at the end of its fiscal year on Sept. 30 has swelled by $22.5 billion to its highest level in the agency’s 35-year history.

The agency’s acting director says, however, that the more than 640,000 people

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The Associated Press has a story running today about the release of a new human rights report by Ombudsman Vladimir Lukin, which focuses on the 28,000 complaints filed for alleged misconduct by the police.  On the one hand, it is very interesting to see the Russian government attempt to walk the line between recognizing its own human rights issues while still claiming progress, while on the other hand, one can sense that the conclusions of the report appear to be directly targeted at addressing only the most pressing concerns of the widest public (corruption by the police) while ignoring the major cases of political prisoners.  Not to mention that it is difficult to treat the report with any sincerity given its avoidance of the Stanislav Markelov ...