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It’s the Economy, Stupid

Bill Bonner (January 8th, 2009) Writes:

he economic news continues to bring bad tidings…consumer bankruptcies were up 33% in 2008…The financial crash is causing an economic crash, which will cause a worse financial crash…and around and around we go…Who will spend their savings in ‘09?…the CBO puts the budget deficit at $1.2 trillion for this year - and that’s not counting stimulus programs…and more!

“Psst…we’re breaking out of this joint…Saturday night…pass it on….”

Yes, dear reader…we’re breaking out… We’re not going to let these prison bars stop us. A whole generation of American investors is being fattened for slaughter…we’re not going to be among them.

Let’s look at yesterday’s headlines just to see what is going on.

The Dow rose 62 points yesterday. Oil held steady at $48. Gold went up $8. Yields are rising…but you still get paid nothing when you lend money to the U.S. government.

The economic news tells us that things are getting worse. Alcoa said

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Stock Markets: Is This It?

Prieur du Plessis (December 17th, 2008) Writes:

The US Federal Reserve yesterday pulled out all the stops in a frantic effort to save the US economy from collapse and stem the deflationary forces. The Fed funds rate was slashed from 1% to a target range between 0 and 0.25% – the lowest the central bank’s key rate has been since records began in 1954.

In reality, the Fed is simply aligning its target rate with the effective rate and thereby pushing monetary policy into an era of Zirp, i.e. a zero-interest-rate policy.

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The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) statement said the “outlook for economic activity has weakened further” from its previous meeting in late October, indicating that the “Federal Reserve will employ all available

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U.S. Companies “Throw in the Towel” – Pushing Jobless Claims to a 26-Year High

Contrarian Profits (December 12th, 2008) Writes:

The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rocketed to a 26-year high last week, surpassing already gloomy forecasts, as the U.S. economy sinks deeper into recession.

Initial applications for jobless benefits climbed by 58,000 to 573,000 in the week ended Dec. 6, upwardly revised from 515,000 the previous week, the U.S. Labor Department reported yesterday (Thursday).  The figure was the highest since 1982, and far exceeded the median projection of 525,000 put forth by 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The increase was due, in part, to a bounce from the week before, which was shorter because it included the Thanksgiving holiday. Government offices were open only four days that week.

Nevertheless, the four-week average, which smooths out fluctuations, stood at 540,500.  That’s the biggest number of jobless claims filed since December 1982, when the economy was also mired in a deep recession. By

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Sirius XM at 15 Cents a Share?

Frank Lara Jr. (December 9th, 2008) Writes:
Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI) recently hit 8 Cents a share, today its at 15 Cents a share.  Yes that would be one dime and one nickel in value.  How did this happen, can it go lower?  One thing is for sure, Howard must be loving those stock options. What the hell, 15 Cents? Now I don't have a position in SIRI but at 15 Cents, I'm thinking about it, why not, if it busts, it was only a few bucks lost. Andrew Snyder has wrote the only article worth reading on Sirius lately, it was on Thanksgiving, here's what he said: Sirius XM (NYSE:SIRI): Is this a buying opportunity? The subscriber growth figures tell the whole story. In 2006, Sirius saw its subscriber base grow by 82%. In 2007, that figures was 38%. This year, it will be lucky ...

Congressional Members Hold Stakes in the “Big Three”

Contrarian Profits (December 8th, 2008) Writes:

With the U.S. “Big Three” of General Motors Corp. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F), and Chrysler Corp. seeking as much as $34 billion in bailout money, there’s a lot at stake for the American auto industry. There would also be quite a bit at stake for Congress, given the personal stakes that elected officials own in the automakers, FoxBusiness.com reports.

According to published reports, 25 members of the U.S. Congress have reported on their financial disclosure forms that they own stock in – or have other capital interests in – the Big Three, based on data compiled from the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington, D.C., research group that tracks money in U.S. politics. [Editor’s Note: Fox News senior information specialist James Farrell pulled the data displayed in the accompanying

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Fed Looking at Another Rate Cut, While Treasury Has New Plan for Housing

Contrarian Profits (December 8th, 2008) Writes:

With the benchmark Federal Funds rate already down to 1.0%, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben. S. Bernanke has only so much room for another cut (although many economists are predicting an additional half-percentage-point cut at the Dec.15-16 meeting).

The Fed extended the lives of recently initiated programs (lending facilities for investment firms, for instance) and is exploring additional moves (like Treasury purchases) aimed at reviving the credit markets.  Bernanke believes more needs to be done to slow the pace of foreclosures, especially since they jumped another 10% in September.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department is working on a plan to rejuvenate the housing market by slashing mortgage rates to 4.5% on new purchases.  Experts say that at some point these stimuli must take hold, but that’s not necessarily true.

This week’s economic calendar is highlighted by two late-week releases that are sure to garner much analysis.  The producer price index (PPI) brings another

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eBay (EBAY) To Thrive On American Thrift

Andrew Snyder (December 5th, 2008) Writes:

Cyber Monday was better for online retailers than most expected. But consumers were only interested in heavily-discounted goods. That’s why Andrew Snyder thinks eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) is well placed to turn a profit this Christmas. It not only attracts bargain hunters, but also sellers desperate to raise cash. And better still, it has a balance sheet that most companies dream of these days.

During the Great Depression, financially devastated Americans sold turnips along side the road to make ends meet. Today, they merely boot up their computer and sell their junk online.

For proof, I called up an acquaintance that makes her living buying and selling on eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY). She answered the phone sounding like she had just spent the last 48 hours on a runaway treadmill. She was tired and grumpy.

“So how did Cyber Monday treat you,” I asked.

“It was insane. I have more orders than I can handle,” I

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A Lot Of Hope - Market Analysis

Charles Rotblut (December 4th, 2008) Writes:
There is a lot of hope being priced into the markets.

I don't know of any of other reason to explain why the stock markets rallied during Thanksgiving week and held onto much of their gains this week.

Let's look at the facts.

The recession is getting worse. The ISM manufacturing index set a new 26-year low. Black Friday sales were not enough to prevent November retail sales from being horribly down. 553,000 jobs were lost last month - the biggest drop since December 1974.

Valuations are not as cheap as they could be. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) still trades a double-digit P/E. There have previous periods where the average has traded at single-digit P/Es.

On a technical basis, the Dow has been setting lower highs and lower lows - a bearish trend. My colleague, Kevin Matras, described the chart pattern as a "sloppy descending triangle"; in

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Global Investing Roundups Thursday, December 4th, 2008

Contrarian Profits (December 4th, 2008) Writes:

EDF Scooping Constellation; Research in Motion Posts Tough 3Q; Legg Mason’s Miller Calls Market Bottom; Cyber Monday Sales Strong; Crude Stocks Drop; New Zealand Fights Recession

The world’s biggest nuclear utility company, Electricité de France SA will offer as much as $6.5 billion for assets of Constellation Energy Group, Inc (CEG), source familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal. A previous offer by EDF was turned down, with Constellation opting for a $4.7 billion bid from Warren Buffett’s MidAmerican unit of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A,BRK.B). Research In Motion Ltd.’s (RIMM) third-quarter subscriptions and profit fell short of forecasts, as it simultaneously faces increased competition and recession in its largest market. Profit for the Blackberry maker rose no more than 83 cents a share in the quarter ended Nov. ...

At Last, A Bailout That Works!

Andrew Snyder (December 4th, 2008) Writes:

Last week’s government aid package for homeowners appears to be working. Mortgage rates have fallen sharply, sending applications soaring. Andrew Snyder says this could be the start of a recovery in the real estate market, which would help stabilize the wider economy. This creates a great chance for profits with discounted blue chips like General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Altria (NSYE:MO).

This from Today’s Financial News:

Well look at that. Government intervention is actually helping in a way our lawmakers intended. While not all of the Fed’s programs have been a success, the one it created last week is working to get the nation’s economy back on track.

You may recall the Federal Reserve announced last week that it planned to purchase up to $500 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities from government-sponsored agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Its goal was to grease the rusty gears of the real estate industry

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