Profit From the “New Decoupling”

Tony Daltorio, The Investment U Research Team

Emerging markets first hit investors’ radar screen about 20 or so years ago. There was a lot of skepticism and a lack of understanding about emerging markets, which was understandable because there were few emerging markets open enough (or large enough) to invest in with a degree of safety.

That has all changed in the past two decades as most emerging markets are open to foreign investments and have a high degree of liquidity. The number of so-called emerging markets has also grown from a mere handful to over 60.

Yet Wall Street seems to have missed these changes – there is still a lot of skepticism on Wall Street when it comes to investing in emerging markets. That is where the opportunity for investors lies.

Famed investor

Last August, in an exclusive article to Oxford Club members, I badmouthed decoupling - the theory that the rest of the world (particularly emerging economies) could somehow party on while the U.S economy endured a recession.

A quick glance at the scoreboard proves my criticism was spot-on…

While the S&P 500 Index slumped 38.5% in 2008, 30 countries witnessed drops of 50% or more. Even more telling, the poster children for the decoupling trade: Brazil (-41.2%), Russia (-72.4%), India (-52.45%) and China (-65.39%) didn’t escape punishment either, despite wild predictions they would…

Clearly, the old adage still applies, “When the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.” (Or in some cases, like Russia, they get pneumonia.)

So why resurrect the past? Because decoupling diehards won’t let this junk science die. And sadly, another warning is in order…

Decoupling 2.0 - Redefining The Theory

On the back of an

Decoupling Is Still Dead And Here’s The Proof

by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist Senior Analyst, The Oxford Club

Last August, in an exclusive article to Oxford Club members, I badmouthed decoupling - the theory that the rest of the world (particularly emerging economies) could somehow party on while the U.S economy endured a recession.

A quick glance at the scoreboard proves my criticism was spot-on…

While the S&P 500 Index slumped 38.5% in 2008, 30 countries witnessed drops of 50% or more. Even more telling, the poster children for the decoupling trade: Brazil (-41.2%), Russia (-72.4%), India (-52.45%) and China (-65.39%) didn’t escape punishment either, despite wild predictions they would…

Clearly, the old adage still applies, “When the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.” (Or in some cases, like Russia, they get pneumonia.)

So why resurrect the past? Because decoupling diehards won’t let this junk science die.