Pandora’s Box of rate hikes is opened! Is the dollar being removed from oil trades? Deficits do matter, eh? Gold heads toward its all-time high…And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Tuesday morning that is seeing a HUGE currency rally VS the dollar on the news that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to go ahead and hike rates now, and not wait for November’s meeting,

I wouldn’t read a lot into the action in the gold market on Friday. It was just another day off the calendar…as Ted Butler would say. The only comment I would make is that the action in the gold price feels more like a top than a bottom. Silver was a little more interesting, as it rose in price through the entire trading day, and finished virtually on its high of the day…and a new high for this move. Now the dichotomy between gold and silver is starting to show up in the price action, and not just the open interest numbers.

Speaking of open interest numbers, gold o.i. on Thursday fell 3,216 contracts to 391,144…on absolutely monstrous volume of 174,662 contracts. Silver’s decline was much more modest…only 93 contracts to 96,309…on total volume of 18,664 contracts.

The Commitment of Traders report issued yesterday, was as expected. In silver, the bullion banks

Gold added about five bucks to its price from the time that trading began in the Far East Thursday…and the London a.m. gold fix. Then from there, it gave back seven dollars going into the p.m. gold fix…and after that, it gained over eight dollars until half past lunchtime in New York. Then a really serious seller showed up taking nine bucks off the price between then and the close of electronic trading in New York. It was pretty choppy trading all around…and it was obvious that every rally ran into serious resistance. The same could be said for silver. But according to the usual New York gold commentator [who is not Dennis Gartman, by the way], volume in gold was heavy…estimated at 140,658 contracts…”which involved a 21.6% surge in the last half-hour. The presence of such determined buyers and sellers during the floor session is unusual.”

Wednesday’s open interest in

Gold declined gently throughout Far East and early European trading on Tuesday…and by shortly after lunchtime in London…had given up around four bucks. From there, a smallish rally developed that made an attempt to continue rallying on the Comex, but got cut off at the knees [at its high of the day] shortly after 9:10 a.m. Eastern time. This decline lasted until 1:15 p.m. in New York…and by the time electronic trading ended at 5:15 p.m. yesterday afternoon…gold was back to virtually unchanged from Monday’s close. Silver didn’t do much. It lost a dime in choppy trading.

I mentioned yesterday that the open interest decline on Friday [in that short-covering rally] would have been somewhat offset by the big rally that we had on Monday. Well, I was only partially right. Open interest for Monday’s big day showed a staggering increase…up 12,999 contracts to 393,536…on big volume of 139,361 contracts. Friday’s

All was calm in Far East trading on Friday morning. Both metals began to slip a little starting at 3:00 p.m. on Friday afternoon in Hong Kong. This lasted through London trading as well…and by the time the Comex opened, gold was down $10 and silver had slid about 23 cents. But once trading started in New York, both gold and silver rallied strongly…but it should be noted that gold ‘ran out of gas’ just before $940 once again. However, silver did better…adding a bit over 30 cents before it, too, ran into ‘resistance’…but managed to close almost on its high of the day.

There wasn’t big volume yesterday, so not too much should be read into this action…but it’s always noteworthy so see that parabolic rises in prices are never allowed to get too far out of hand before the usual ‘not for profit’ sellers show up.

Despite the fact that

From the close of trading in New York on Wednesday afternoon at 5:15 Eastern Time…and the close of trading 24 hours later on Thursday at the same time…the U.S. dollar lost about 90 basis points. That’s a big drop. Gold’s response? Up three bucks…and silver was actually down on the day.

Yesterday’s low tick on the U.S. dollar occurred around 2 p.m. in New York at 79.72 cents…plus or minus a couple of ticks. Gold’s peak price in the first few days of June was around $990…when the dollar printed a low of about 78.70 cents. In five weeks, the U.S. dollar has gained a full cent [one percent and change], while the US$ gold price has been hit for 77 big ones. That’s a drop of 7.8%.

The point I’m making here is that this decline in the gold and silver price over the last five weeks has had

Gold didn’t do a lot in Far East trading on Tuesday. The low of the day occurred at the open in London…and for the next two hours, gold put on a spirited rally [$10+] that ended with the price going vertical about half an hour before the Comex open. However, as is always the case at moments like these, the usual not-for-profit sellers showed up and did their dirty until it was time for them to go for lunch at 12:00 noon in New York. Once ‘da boyz’ were at lunch, gold made a $7 run higher, which ended the second that floor trading was over on the Comex…and electronic trading began.

And by the time that gold trading was over for the day…most of that gain had been made to disappear…and gold finished down about a dollar from Monday’s close.

From the first paragraph of my Saturday commentary…”I don’t know what it is about that [one hour and change] stretch of time between the Sydney close and the London open…but if there is going to be a down day…it starts right there a large percentage of the time.” Any questions? Actually, both gold and silver got sold off the moment that the New York bullion banks opened for business 6:00 p.m. on Sunday night…which is very early Monday morning in Far East trading. Shortly before 3:00 p.m. in Hong Kong, gold had almost made it back to unchanged…and silver was actually up a couple of cents when the hammer fell. The bottom for gold came very shortly after the London a.m. gold fix at 5:30 New York time…and in silver, shortly after the Comex open. The ‘rally’ in the US dollar that started at the same time as the precious

Gold managed to add about three bucks to its price from the beginning of Wednesday morning trading in the Far East…right up until 1:00 p.m. in the London afternoon…which was 8:00 a.m. in New York. At that point, gold tacked on $8 in less than 30 minutes…sat there until lunchtime…then tacked on another $8 in less than 15 minutes. Then one of the usual not-for-profit sellers showed up and that was it for the day. Gold did manage to poke its nose above $940 again…and finally closed above the $940 mark at $940.30.

Does this price have any significance? Who knows, but I can easily tell that ‘da boyz’ have been defending this price with great enthusiasm since June 15th…as the daily market action has been so obvious lately…confirmed by the graph below.

Silver didn’t show up for this party, but

Gold price action on Monday looked similar to Friday’s. The bottom for gold in the Far East came shortly after 3:00 p.m. in Hong Kong…rose until shortly after London opened, declined a couple of bucks…but once the London a.m. gold fix was in [10:30 a.m. in London...5:30 a.m. in New York], gold rose to its high of the day shortly after 11:00 a.m. This high [once again over $940] lasted until 9:00 a.m. in New York, shortly after the Comex opened…then it got taken down eight bucks to its low of the day at 10:00 a.m. in New York…which just happens to be the London p.m. fix…3:00 p.m. over there.

From that point it rose right into the Comex close…and was taken down and closed below $940 once again in the electronic market.

Silver’s chart pattern was virtually identical to gold’s.