Beware This Tech-Tonic Shift In The Global Technology Sector

by Tony Daltorio, Investment U Research

If you’re betting on a recovery in technology stocks based on third quarter earnings reports from companies such as IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), you’re not alone.

While economists and commentators debate the issue, many investors have already placed large bets on a V-shaped recovery for the tech sector.

They have some good reason to think so too, since the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite has risen 70% from its March lows. The problem is, they’re expecting “business as usual” in the industry… meaning they think spending will pick up the way it did in the 1990s.

Kris Gopalakrishman, CEO of Indian tech giant, Infosys (Nasdaq: INFY) – a company in the Xcelerated Profits Report portfolio – sees it differently,

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U.S. stocks wobbled Tuesday and ended the day mixed even as automakers reported improved auto sales and Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway said it would buy Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.  Traders were reluctant to place big bets as they awaited the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting which got underway Tuesday and Friday's monthly jobs report.  Although expectations are the Fed would keep interest rates in the 0-0.25% range, Wall Street has been speculating if there would be a change of tone in the policy statement. 

On Tuesday, the 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average closed down 17.53 points, or 0.18%, to 9,771.91.  The broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index added 2.53 points, or 0.24%, to 1,045.41 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 8.12 points, or 0.40%, to 2,057.32.  On the NYSE, volume slowed to 1.38 billion shares.  

The news of a sale of 200 tons of gold to India sent

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A tepid report on housing starts sent stocks into a tizzy and major indexes slipped from their year highs as solid earnings reports from Apple Inc. to Caterpillar were overlooked by anxious investors.  A rebound in dollar from its 14-month lows also added to the downward pressure and hurt commodities, sending energy and material shares lower. 

Weakness in share sent Treasury prices higher, with the 10-year closing up 13/32, to 102 11/32.  The yield fell to 3.34%, from 3.39% late Monday.  On Tuesday, the 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average fell 50.71 points, or 0.50%, to 10,041.48.  The broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index retreated 6.85 points, or 0.62%, at 1,091.06 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index lost 12.85 points, or 0.59%, to 2,163.47.  Market breadth was negative.  On the New York Stock Exchange, declining shares beat those that rose in price two to one on volume of 1.24 billion

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Fears about the pace of the recovery have caused stocks to tumble. Technology stocks are being particularly hit hard with NVIDIA (NVDA) and Micron Technology (MU) down by more than 5% on the day. Financials and homebuilders are also faring poorly. Both Zions Bancorp (ZION) and Lennar (LEN) have large intraday losses. At the heart of the problem is the labor situation. The employment component in the ISM Survey worsened slightly to 46.2. (Readings over 50 signal expansion, or in this case, hiring.) Initial jobless claims also rose, reversing a previously weekly improvement. Dirk van Dijk pointed out on our Analyst Blog, "In recent weeks progress on claims has stalled out and become erratic." Compounding matters is the Monster Employment Index, which also worsened. The index declined to 119 last month from 121 in August. Monster Worldwide Vice President Jesse Harriott observed, "U.S. ...

A sharp plunge in Shanghai Composite Index Monday sent Asian stocks sharply lower as nervous investors went on a selling spree, reflecting a growing unease that the six-month old rally has gone ahead of any economic recovery.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which had declined nearly 3% on Friday, plunged 6.7% to 2,697.  Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated 1.9%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 stock average, which was up 200 points earlier in the session, fell 41.61 points, or 0.4%, to 10,492.53.  In Yesterday’s landslide victory, the Democratic Party of Japan came to power ending an almost half-a-century rule by the Liberal Democratic Party.  The yen strengthened, helped by the election results.

This morning’s U.S. stock futures show Wall Street is headed for a lower opening.  Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 59, or 0.6%, to 9,477. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures fell 5.70, or 0.6%, to 1,021.70, while

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Better-than-expected earnings from retailers and an upbeat housing report helped indexes recover some ground Tuesday after previous session’s big market sell-off pushed equities sharply lower.  A rise in German investor confidence also helped sentiments on the Street as investors chose to brush aside a greater-than-expected plunge in wholesale prices.

The benchmark S&P 500 index closed up 1% at 989.67. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.9% to 9,217.94 and the Nasdaq Composite index gained 1.3% to 1,955.92.  About four stocks advanced for every one that declined.  Volume was light with only 991 million shares exchanging hands.  With investors back among equities, Treasuries declined, as the 2-year fell 1/32 and its yield rose to 1.028%, and the price of the 10-year eased 12/32 in price and its yield increased to 3.517%. The measure of market volatility, the CBOE Vix, reversed Tuesday's near-15% jump, retreating 6.1% to 26.18.

With no clear

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U.S. stocks paused for a breather Monday, after a month-long rally saw indexes scaling multi-month highs.  After last week’s big gains, investors appeared cautious and refrained from making new bets.  In the absence of any major economic and corporate developments, stocks drifted lower even as investors turned their attention towards Fed for indications on how the economic picture is shaping up.  Concerns over the oncoming auction of government treasuries also played in the minds of investors.

The Dow Jones industrial average retreated 32 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 index fell 3 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq dipped 8 points, or 0.4%. On the New York Stock Exchange, 1.09 billion shares exchanged hands and losers were ahead of winners by a narrow margin.

The two-day Fed meet that begins today is expected to keep interest rates near close to zero.  However, Bernanke and Co’s assessment of how the economy

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U.S. stocks suffered moderate declines Thursday as worries about a key report on U.S. job losses weighed on sentiments.  Traders remained hesitant and cut positions as a number of disappointing July same store sales reports added to waning optimism that the recession is losing its grip.  Healthcare issues fell after JP Morgan downgraded the sector to underweight.  A $2 billion extension of the successful clunkers program failed to lift moods on the Street either.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 25 points, or 0.3% and the broader S&P 500 index fell 5 points, or 0.6%. The technology-focused Nasdaq retreated 20 points, or 1%.    

This morning, the July jobs report surprised as the Labor Department reported that U.S. employers shed fewer jobs in July.  That unemployment rate dipped to 9.4% against expectations of a 9.6% fall helped calm shaky nerves and pushed stock futures sharply higher.  The Labor Department noted

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US markets shot higher for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday as JP Morgan’s robust numbers fed hopes that the worst of the economic troubles had passed.  Although trade remained choppy throughout the session, markets succeeded in getting a foothold towards the end as traders picked up technology and financial stocks.  Technology-heavy NASDAQ ended at its highest level since October.   

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 94 points, or 1.1% and the S&P 500 index increased 8 points, or 0.9%. The NASDAQ index jumped 24 points, or 1.3%.  Volume remained moderate with only 1.2 billion shares exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange and advancing shares outpacing declining issues by a seven-to-three margin.  Stocks have rallied this week as better-than-expected earnings from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Intel’s (NASDAQ:INTC) robust third quarter outlook have lifted sentiments on the Street.

Helping the sentiment further were reports that said New York

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US stocks staged a sharp recovery yesterday, helped by rebound in financial shares, as analyst Meredith Whitney’s bullish comments on Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) triggered a buying spree and investors snapped up banking and industrial stocks.  The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 185 points.  Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), which has been hit hard by loan losses, also surged after Whitney said on CNBC the shares were the cheapest among U.S. banking stocks.  The S&P 500 index added 22 points, or 2.5%.  The NASDAQ rose 37 points, or 2.1%, helped by a 2.1% rally in technology stocks.

However, CIT Group Inc. (NYSE:CIT) plunged 11.8% after the commercial finance lender said its failure would put prospects of 760 manufacturing clients in jeopardy and precipitate a crisis for about 300,000 retailers.  American International Inc. (NYSE:AIG) rallied 24% and was the leading gainer among S&P 500 stocks after media reports said Primus Financial Holdings

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