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Corporate Bankruptcies Will be a Key Investor Concern in the New Year

Contrarian Profits (January 7th, 2009) Writes:

Investors are breathing a sigh of relief that 2008 is over, but they shouldn’t get too comfortable. After all, with a worldwide recession under way, investors can expect acceleration in corporate bankruptcies in 2009.

But the question is - which ones?

In the financial services sector, 2008 was a year of spectacular failures:

Bear Stearns Cos. and Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. were absorbed by JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC), respectively. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ) filed for bankruptcy protection. And financial-sector giants American International Group Inc. (AIG) and Citigroup Inc. (C) were both bailed ...
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American International Group Inc., Asia, Bank, Bank Of America, Banking, Bear Stearns Cos, car, Chrysler LLC, Circuit City Stores Inc, Citigroup Inc, contrarian profits, conventional banks;, Countrywide Financial Corp, Dublin, finance, Financial Services, financial-sector giants;, First Franklin;, Ford Motor Co, General Motors Corp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, healthcare obligations;, Investment Banking, JP Morgan Chase, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, luxury goods producers;, LVMH Moet Hennessey Louis Vuitton;, Market Commentary, Merrill Lynch, messy conglomerate;, Morgan Stanley, New Year's Day, New York, Oil Prices, oil sheiks;, retail chains, Saks Inc, Sharper Image Corp.;, subprime mortgage lender;, Target Corp, The Home Depot Inc., Things Inc;, United Auto Workers Union;, United States, USD, vladimir putin, Wal Mart Stores Inc, wall street, Waterford Wedgwood PLC;, wells fargo

Obama Stimulus and January Effect, this Week’s Top Stories

Contrarian Profits (January 5th, 2009) Writes:

President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team is reportedly putting the finishing touches on an economic recovery plan that could run from $675 billion to $1 trillion, though many experts believe the program will most like range between $700 billion and $800 billion.

Briefings for top congressional Democrats were to start either over the weekend or today (Monday), a senior transition-team official told The Associated Press late last week. President-elect Obama is slated to meet today with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., in a Democratic strategy session that is likely to focus on the economic recovery package.

It’s time to look forward, not back. The 111th Congress meets tomorrow (Tuesday), and a comprehensive economic stimulus package is at the top of its agenda.  Hopefully, the lawmakers can put partisan bickering aside (fat chance) and have a bill in place for President-elect Barack

...
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Alcoa Inc, Amazon.com Inc., Bank, Barack Obama, Bernard Madoff;, California, Citigroup Inc, Congress, contrarian profits, DA Davidson, Dow 30, Dow Jones, energy markets, Energy Prices, fed-funds, Federal Reserve System, Federated Investors;, Fred Dickson, General Motors Corp, GMAC LLC;, Gross Domestic Product, Group AG;, Harry Reid, Institute For Supply Management, International Council of Shopping Centers;, J.C. Penney Co. Inc., Japan, JP Morgan Chase, Kohl's Corp.;, Market Commentary, MasterCard Inc., Middle East, Nancy Pelosi, Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite, Nevada, New Year's Day, Nikkei 225, Obama administration, Oil Prices, Phil Orlando;, retail, retail-land;, Russell 2000, Russia, S&P, Sp 500, Target Corp, The Associated Press, The Boeing Co., the Post, the Washington Post, Trade Group, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, U.S. Treasury Department, Ukraine, United States, Us Federal Reserve, USD, Wal Mart Stores Inc

U.S. Economy in 2009, Pain Will Precede the Promise

Shah Gilani (December 29th, 2008) Writes:

If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right - and I have every reason to believe that he will - then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American companies will be

...
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American International Group Inc., Anthony Karydakis;, Bank Failures, bank loans, bank of america corp, bank of england, Barack Obama, Brands Inc., Central Banks, contrarian profits, Covered JP Morgan Chase & Co.;, Deutsche Bank Ag, direct-to-bank capital injections;, European Central Bank, Fannie Mae, Fdic, fed-funds, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Federal Reserve System, finance, Fortune, Freddie Mac, Gdp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Hilton Hotels Corp;, J.C. Penny Co. Inc.;, JP Morgan Chase, JPMorgan Asset Management;, Kohl's Corp.;, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, London, mark-to-market accounting, Market Commentary, Merrill Lynch, Moody's Investors Service, Morgan Stanley, National Bureau of Economic Research, New Year's Day, new york fed, New York University's Stern School of Business, Nordstrom Group;, Oil, political solution;, Real Estate, real estate collapse;, real estate cycle, Real Estate Prices, real estate realm;, Retail Sales, Retail Sector, Starwood Hotels, Stern School;, Target Corp, The Bear Stearns Cos., The Blackstone Group LP, The Gap Inc., The Neiman Marcus Group Inc;, The Wall Street Journal, Timothy Geithner;, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics;, U.S. Bureau;, U.S. Treasury Department, United States, US Commerce Department, Us Federal Reserve, Us Treasury, USD, Wal Mart Stores Inc

Retail Sales to Suffer in 2009 as U.S. Consumers Curtail Spending

Contrarian Profits (November 28th, 2008) Writes:

Retail experts are predicting one of the most dismal holiday shopping seasons in decades this year – a crucial stretch that will set the stage for poor retail sales throughout 2009.

As the U.S. economy decelerates, pummeled by the aftershocks of the worldwide financial crisis, consumers have been hit from every direction: Unemployment has spiked, and will continue to rise, economy unwinds and continues to work through the aftershocks of the global credit crisis, consumers have been beset on all sides. Unemployment is up, home prices are down, and credit is hard to come by.

And although inflation is beginning to moderate somewhat – slowing to a pace of 3.7% year-over-year in October – it’s still well above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s desired target rate of 2.0%.

With rampant inflation no longer artificially propping up consumer spending figures, retail sales have really started to lose their

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Amazon.com Inc., America, Arkansas, Bentonville;, Best Buy Co Inc, bleak retail environment;, bloomberg, C. Britt Beemer;, Circuit City Stores Inc, Connecticut, contrarian profits, Crm, CRM Magazine;, Davidowitz & Associates;, Energy Prices, Federal Reserve System, Fitch Ratings Inc., Greenwich, Gross Domestic Product, Gus Faucher;, H. Lee Scott Jr .;, Howard Davidowitz;, Jeff Klinefelter;, Jeffrey Matthews;, Kohl's Corp.;, Market Commentary, Moody's, National Federation of Independent Business;, New Year's Day, online and on television;, Online Retailer, Online Retailers, online shoe retailer;, Piper Jaffray Cos.;, poor retail sales;, QVC Inc.;, Ram Partners LP;, recent retail outlook report;, research group, Retail experts;, Retail Sales, Retail Sector, retail sectors, retail titan;, Reuters, Sam Walton;, Sharper Image Corp.;, Small Business Administration;, Sp 500, Target Corp, United States, Us Federal Reserve, Wal Mart Stores Inc, wall street, Web sales;, Zappos.com Inc.;

U.S. Economic Outlook for 2009

Shah Gilani (November 24th, 2008) Writes:

If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. And it could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right - and I have every reason to believe that he will - then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American

...
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A band, American International Group Inc., Anthony Karydakis;, Bank Failures, bank of america corp, bank of england, Barack Obama, Brands Inc., Central Banks, contrarian profits, Covered JP Morgan Chase & Co.;, Deposit Insurance Corp.;, Deutsche Bank Ag, direct-to-bank capital injections;, European Central Bank, Fannie Mae, Fdic, fed-funds, Federal Reserve System, finance, Fortune, Freddie Mac, Gdp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Hilton Hotels Corp;, J.C. Penny Co. Inc.;, JP Morgan Chase, JPMorgan Asset Management;, Kohl's Corp.;, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, mark-to-market accounting, Market Commentary, Moody's Investors Service, Morgan Stanley Merrill Lynch & Co., National Bureau of Economic Research, New Year's Day, new york fed, New York University's Stern School of Business, Oil, political solution;, Real Estate, real estate collapse;, real estate cycle, Real Estate Prices, real estate realm;, Retail Sales, Retail Sector, Starwood Hotels, Stern School;, Target Corp, The Bear Stearns Cos., The Blackstone Group LP, The Gap Inc., The Neiman Marcus Group Inc;, The Nordstrom Group;, The Wall Street Journal, Timothy Geithner;, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics;, U.S. Bureau;, U.S. Treasury Department, United States, US Commerce Department, Us Federal Reserve, Us Treasury, USD, Wal Mart Stores Inc

Pershing Square Capital Management | Hedge Fund Tracker Notes

Richard C. Wilson (November 19th, 2008) Writes:
Pershing Square CapitalPershing Square Capital Management | NotesThe following piece on Pershing Square Capital Management and Bill Ackman (shown left) is being published as part of our daily effort to track hedge fund events in the industry. To review other hedge fund related announcements please see our Hedge Fund Tracker Tool.Resource #1: (11.18.08) Target Corp (TGT.N) shareholder Pershing Square Capital Management will present on Wednesday a revised proposal to boost Target's long-term value and address concerns raised about an earlier version calling on the retailer to spin off the land under its stores.But a Target spokeswoman said the discount retailer is still reviewing the Pershing proposal and has not yet made a decision on it. Target shares were down 4.8 percent at $29.99 in late afternoon trading on the New ...

Pershing Square Capital Management 13F Holdings Analysis

Richard C. Wilson (November 18th, 2008) Writes:
Pershing Square 13FPershing Square Capital 13F HoldingsBelow are some details related to specific securities shown within Pershing Square's recent 13F Filing with the SEC. While these filings don't often show the complete picture of a fund's investments they are interesting to review as they show a sample of their total holdings. Please click on the image below for a clear view of this holdings report.Source: SEC 13F Filing | MFF ReportsWatch a recent video on Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management here or read more of these 13F holdings analysis pieces within our Investment Securities and Holdings Tool.The securities included within this update:American International Group Inc (AIG) Barnes And Noble Inc (BKS) Borders ...

Global Investing Roundups Tuesday, November 18th, 2008

Contrarian Profits (November 18th, 2008) Writes:

Survey; U.S. began recession in April; Target 3Q Profit Down 24%; Merrill Lowers 2009 Brazil Growth to 2.9%; Hong Kong Officially in Recession; SEC Charges Cuban with Insider Trading; Lowe’s Revenue Climbs; October Industrial Output Rises

The U.S. economy entered recession in April and will last a total of 14 months, according to a survey of economists by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The survey also predicted that non-farm payrolls would contract by 222,400 jobs during the fourth quarter, Reuters reported. Target Corp. (TGT) saw its profit drop by 24% in the third quarter, as fewer shoppers showed up at the retailer. Though slightly better than the average forecast, it marked the fifth consecutive drop in quarterly profit, Reuters reported. Merrill Lynch lowered its 2009 growth estimate for Brazil from 3.1% to 2.9%. ...

T2 Capital Partners LP | 13F Holdings Analysis

Richard C. Wilson (November 17th, 2008) Writes:
T2 Capital Partners LPT2 Capital Partners LP | Hedge Fund NotesPlease click on the image below to view a report on the top 15 security position of T2 Capital Partners according to their most recent 13F filings with the SEC on November 13th, 2009.Shares mentioned within T2's most recent 13F filing included:Alliancebernstein Holding Lp (AB) Ambassadors International Inc (AMIE) American Express Co (AXP) American Italian Pasta Co (AITP.PK) American Oriental Bioengineering ... (AOB) Anheuser-Busch Cos Inc (BUD) Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) Atlas Pipeline Partners Lp (APL) Atp Oil And Gas Corp (ATPG) Barnes And Noble Inc (BKS) Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.A) Borders Group Inc (BGP) Celebrate Express Inc (BDAY) Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK) Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) Clearpoint Business Resources Inc (CPBRU) Contango Oil And Gas Co (MCF) Delias Inc (DLIA) Ebay Inc (EBAY) Echostar Corp (SATS) Emc Corpmassachusetts ...
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AllianceBernstein Holding LP, Ambassadors International Inc;, American Express Co., American Italian Pasta Co, Anheuser-Busch Cos Inc., Annaly Capital Management Inc;, Atlas Pipeline Partners LP, Atp Oil And Gas Corp;, Barnes And Noble Inc;, Berkshire Hathaway Inc, Borders Group Inc, Celebrate Express Inc;, Chesapeake Energy Corp, Cisco Systems Inc, Clearpoint Business Resources Inc;, Contango Oil And Gas Co;, Delias Inc, eBay Inc., Echostar Corp;, Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd, Goldman Sachs Group, Hedge Funds, Hennessy Advisors Inc;, Jamba Inc, John Paulson, Kinross Gold Corp., MFF Holdings;, Microsoft Corp, Millennium Partners, Moore Capital Management LP;, Och Ziff Capital Management Group, Ospraie Management LLC, Paulson, Pequot Capital Management Hedge Fund, Petmed Express Inc., Pf Changs China Bistro Inc;, Photochannel Networks Inc, Premier Exhibitions Inc;, Proliance International Inc;, Prospect Capital Corp;, Research In Motion Ltd, Resource America Inc;, Seabridge Gold Inc;, Sears Holdings Corp, Securities And Exchange Commission, Southwestern Energy Co;, Spiro Germenis, Starbucks Corp.;, Summer Infant Inc;, Syneron Medical Ltd;, T2 Capital Hedge Fund;, T2 Capital Partners Hedge Fund;, T2 Capital Partners LP;, Target Corp, TravelCenters of America LLC, Weyco Group Inc;, Whole Foods Market Inc, Winn-Dixie Stores Inc.

U.S. Automakers, Freddie Mac (FRE) and Foreign Exporters Next in Line for Bailout Handouts

Contrarian Profits (November 17th, 2008) Writes:

This week is shaping up to be another active one on the bailout-and-financing front. First and foremost, Congress returns to work this week to consider a once-unthinkable proposal: Put up billions in taxpayer-backed loans so that Detroit’s “Big Three” can be saved. Expect a fight, however, as the bailout debate finally moves past banks to focus on General Motors Corp. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F), and Chrysler Corp.

The situation is dire. GM is burning through cash at a pace that could mean bankruptcy, and all three players are struggling with high costs, weak vehicle sales, frozen credit lines and dwindling cash reserves calling into question whether they can survive much longer without government help. The answer, of course, is that they probably can’t.

But it’s here that the debate turns political, the Detroit Free Press reports. Congressional Democrats are pushing for some form

...
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American Express Co., American International Group Inc., AnnTaylor Stores Corp., Arlington, Asia, Atlanta, Bank, Bank Of America, bank-lending activity;, Barack Obama, Beijing, Ben S, Ben S. Bernanke, Best Buy, bloomberg, China, Chrysler Corp., Circuit City Stores Inc, Citi, Citigroup Inc, Congress, contrarian profits, David M. Moffett;, Depression, Des Moines, Detroit, Detroit Free Press, Dow 30, Dow Jones, energy, Energy Prices, Fannie Mae, Fbr Capital Markets, fed-funds, Federal Government, Federal Reserve System, food, Ford Motor Co, Freddie Mac, General Motors Corp, George W Bush, healthcare benefits;, Henry M. "Hank" Paulson Jr ., Herbert M. Allison Jr .;, Home Depot Inc, India, Indonesia, Insurance Giant, Intel, International Herald Tribune, International Monetary Fund, Iowa, J.C. Penney Co. Inc., Japan, Jpmorgan Chase, Latin America, Macy's Inc., Market Commentary, Miami, Morgan Stanley, mortgage-finance giant;, New York, Oil, Oil Prices, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paul Miller, Retail Sales, retail sales release;, Russell 2000, San Francisco, south korea, Sp 500, Sun Microsystems Inc.;, Target Corp, Tony Cervone;, U.S. Treasury Department, United States, Us Federal Reserve, Us Government, Us Treasury, USD, Virginia, Wal Mart Stores Inc, Wall Street Journal, Washington, Womens Wear Daily;, Yiping Huang;

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