A Dang Good Year for AUDCAD … So Far!

If you bought the Australian dollar and simultaneously sold the Canadian dollar at the beginning of the year and you’re still positioned like that then you’re probably a pretty happy camper. That’s because year-to-date AUDCAD (Australian dollar vs. Canadian dollar) has jumped 1,000 PIPs – or 11.4%. And in the world of forex, that’s a huge move.

And having just tested its highest level in more than three years, we begin to wonder if this pair could be running out of gas. Buy-and-hold strategists will tell you the trend is your friend, so keep buying and holding. But we’ve got a different philosophy that keeps us asking: when is the trend not your friend? And when is the trend going to reverse and take you to the cleaners?

 

Right now may be one of those times … or it might not. But

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There are many Wall Street adages. Some seem to have predictive power, including the idea that one should "sell in May and go away." Such slogans have extra influence because of the catchy, alliterative qualities. When Indicators Conflict There are a number of conflicting adages at the moment. There is the Presidential Election Cycle. We have not been big fans of this because the causal model is elusive. This year, however, we have both the Fed eases and the stimulus package. If ever the theory were to work, this might be the time. We also note that the popular bearish commentators embraced the theory when it suggested market weakness, but have fallen silent during the period when it suggested strength. This should be interesting to contrarian investors. There are technical considerations. Can the market break through apparent resistance? That is the current battleground for traders. There ...