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The lie of the investment land, according to Dylan Grice

Prieur du Plessis (November 21st, 2009) Writes:

This podcast features an excellent interview by FT’s David Stevenson with Dylan Grice, strategist of Société Générale. Dylan, who has been described as “the Robin to Albert Edward’s Batman”, discusses stock market bubbles, China and geo-politics.

Click here for the interview (but be warned that the running time is 44 minutes).

Source: David Stevenson, Financial Times, November 6, 2009.

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Zacks Earnings Trends Highlights: Caterpillar, Eaton and Illinois Tool Works – Press Releases

Dirk Van Dijk (November 17th, 2009) Writes:

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – November 17, 2009 - Zacks Research Equity Strategist, Dirk Van Dijk says that S&P 500 earnings are continuing to show red ink. He tracks companies on the Zacks.com web site, naming names, while forecasting trends for the months ahead.

Great Earnings Season Coming to an End

It’s almost time to close the books on a fantastic earnings season. With over 90% of reports in, there have been 353 which have exceeded expectations while only 66 have fallen short, a ratio of 5.35. While it is true that most companies will normally try to under-promise and over-deliver, this quarter the beats are beating the misses by about twice the normal margin of 3:1.

Nor have all the surprises only been by a penny or two, but there have been lots of companies that simply crushed the earnings estimates. The median surprise is a very

...

Today in Russian Business – Nov 13, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (November 13th, 2009) Writes:
'The primitive structure of our economy', was one of President Medvedev's keynote complaints in his second annual address, which emphasized the need for technological innovation. The speech was 'disappointing from an investment point of view [...] it was very light on any specific point of action, just a reiteration of what we have already been hearing', comments one strategist. Excessive state involvement in the economy was another point raised: three state corporations, Russian Technologies, Rusnano and Vneshekonombank will lose their status as such as early as next year. The President did suggest that it should be the job of the Foreign Ministry to systematically encourage foreign investments, by reducing bureaucratic hurdles. The economic decline has apparently eased during the last quarter after record lows. Rusal may offer stakes in mines to Chinese companies to contribute to the success ...

Zacks Earnings Trends Highlights: Caterpillar, Eaton and Illinois Tool Works – Press Releases

Dirk Van Dijk (November 11th, 2009) Writes:

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – November 11, 2009 - Zacks Research Equity Strategist, Dirk Van Dijk says that S&P 500 earnings are continuing to show red ink. He tracks companies on the Zacks.com web site, naming names, while forecasting trends for the months ahead.

Earnings Season in Home Stretch

For a large sector, the revisions ratio of 9.07 for the Industrials is extremely impressive, and would seem to support the idea that the economy is gaining some real traction. More than five times as many firms in the sector saw their mean estimate for 2010 rise over the last month than suffered a decline in their expectations.

Some of the firms in the sector that have seen double-digit increases in both their mean estimate and double-digit numbers of estimate increases and have had no cuts over the last month include Caterpillar (CAT), Eaton (

...

Straddling salesforce.com (CRM) Ahead of Earnings – Options Commentary

Zacks Market Commentaries (November 9th, 2009) Writes:
Utilizing the Zacks Most Active Options filter, today's column focuses on San Francisco-based software concern salesforce.com, inc. (CRM), which was a popular item in the options pits on Thursday.

< ?DART(15);?> Before we begin, let's explain the contrarian stance that makes Schaeffer's so unique. When searching for a bullish pick, we like to see heavy skepticism toward an outperforming stock, as this leaves ample room for upgrades or other positive catalysts to fuel the stock higher. When searching for a bearish pick, on the other hand, contrarians are looking for significant bullish sentiment toward an underperforming stock, as we believe an excess of optimism is a sign that everyone has already bought into the stock and sideline money is virtually tapped out.

However, keep in mind that some optimism and pessimism is genuinely warranted and isn't always a contrarian indicator - like an outperforming

...

GDP Notes – In Depth – Analyst Blog

Dirk Van Dijk (October 29th, 2009) Writes:
Senior strategist Dirk van Dijk, CFA has issued notes on this morning's GDP numbers. These notes will be published in two separate blogs -- Growth Rates and Contributions to Growth. The recession is over! In the third quarter, GDP grew by 3.5%, comfortably ahead of expectations for 3.0% growth. This is a huge improvement over the 0.7% decline in the second quarter and the 6.4% plunge in the first quarter. The internals of the report were strong as well, although it appears that much of the growth came from things like the "Cash for Clunkers" (C4C) program and the extraordinary levels of support that are currently being given to the housing sector. I will first go over the percentage growth rates for the main components of GDP, and then how much each part contributed (or subtracted from the 3.5% growth rate). This is probably the ...

Zacks Earnings Trends Highlights: General Mills, Constellation Brands, Campbell Soup, Intel and National Semiconductor – Press Releases

Dirk Van Dijk (October 22nd, 2009) Writes:

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – October 22, 2009 - Zacks Research Equity Strategist, Dirk Van Dijk says that S&P 500 earnings are continuing to show red ink. He tracks companies on the Zacks.com web site, naming names, while forecasting trends for the months ahead.

Key Points from Van Dijk's Latest Earnings Assessment Earnings Trends Key Points:

Earnings surprise ratio (#beat / #miss) at 5.56 Median Earnings Surprise 7.90% Year-over-year earnings growth ratio (# Positive Growth/# Negative Growth) at 0.74 Sales surprise ratio at 2.0 Sales growth ratio at just 0.35 Total net income for S&P 500 reported firms is 12.1%. This is above what those same 66 firms reported a year ago and 4.9% above what they earned in Q209 Total S&P 500 revenues reported down 4.7% ...

Why All the Fuss Over Rare Earths?

Contrarian Profits (October 6th, 2009) Writes:

Rare earth elements (REEs) have been the mystery metals of the mining world for years. Now, suddenly, everyone’s heard about them.

Before we delve into the reasons behind all the publicity, here’s the basic skinny on REEs: One, they are rare, at least sort of. Two, they are indispensable to modern technology. Three, the number of active, dedicated producers is tiny, with more than 90% of the world’s supply coming from China.

If you took high school chemistry, you probably remember the periodic table of the elements. But if you’re like most of us, even if you pulled a 95 on the chem final, you may not recall many of the details today. And there’s a better than even chance you never bothered to memorize the names of the REEs. It’s time to get reacquainted.

They’re generally clustered in a separate grouping at the bottom of the table, are known collectively as the

...

Earnings Trends – Revisions Ratios Slip Back – Press Releases

Zacks Market Commentaries (September 24th, 2009) Writes:

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – September 17, 2009 - Zacks Research Equity Strategist, Dirk Van Dijk tracks earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies on the Zacks.com web site, naming names those seeing upward and downward revisions, while forecasting trends for the months ahead.

Key Points:

Growth

 

Third quarter net income expected to be down 22.9% year-over-year Fourth-quarter net ince to more than double from a year ago, but it is all in the Financials Only 160, or 32% of all S&P 500 firms expected to see positive EPS growth in 3Q More than half expected to post positive growth in Q4

Levels

 

Bottom-up estimate for S&P 500 now $60.73 in 2009 S&P 500 now expected to earn $75.23 in 2010 Top down estimates $53.94 and $68.40, respectively...

Singapore wealth fund halves Citi stake, makes $1.6 bln

Raymond Teo (September 22nd, 2009) Writes:
GIC held over 9 pct of Citigroup prior to stake sale * Now has below 5 pct; will stay on as “portfolio investor” * GIC says realised $1.6 bln profit from sale * Citigroup shares up in premarket trade By Kevin Lim and Saeed Azhar SINGAPORE, Sept 22 - Singapore wealth fund GIC has halved its stake in Citigroup <C.N>, cashing in on a market rally for a profit of $1.6 billion, but signalling investor concerns over the outlook for global banks. The sale follows other divestments by sovereign funds from Western banks they helped rescue at the start of the financial crisis to use the money closer to home in emerging markets and in other growth sectors such as resources. In June, Abu Dhabi exited Barclays Plc <BARC.L> with a gain of about 1.5 billion pounds , though Temasek [TEM.UL], another Singapore wealth fund, lost an estimated $4 billion from an early exit from Bank of ...

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