This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Paul Krugman (The New York Times): Interest rates: the phantom menace, November 20, 2009. Well, what I hear is that officials don’t trust the demand for long-term government debt, because they see it as driven by a “carry trade”: financial players borrowing cheap money short-term, and using it to buy long-term bonds. They fear that the whole thing could evaporate if long-term rates start to rise, imposing capital losses on the people doing the carry trade; this could, they believe, drive rates way up, even though this possibility doesn’t seem to be priced in by the market. What’s wrong with this picture?

• Michael Panzner (Financial Armageddon): Economists: wrong again, November 21, 2009. As if they didn’t cause enough

Asia has proven comparatively resilient against the current downturn, but hurdles still lie ahead. In order to maintain robust growth rates in the face of weak US demand, the region’s dynamic economies must stoke domestic consumption and embrace environmentally sustainable development policies. So says Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and author of The Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization.  Clay Chandler, Asia editor with McKinsey’s publishing group, spoke to Roach in Hong Kong.

Source: Clay Chandler, McKinsey Quarterly, November 13, 2009.

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Business Intelligence: Marc Faber has short term concerns about commodities, says gold may drop to US$800, November 6, 2009. Marc Faber the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor said he has some short-term concerns about commodity prices including gold. He is also reluctant to invest in bonds.

• Aline van Duyn (Financial Times): Why dollar carry trade faces hidden dangers, November 7, 2009. Most investors agree that it is out there. What is less clear is how big it is, or how worried investors should be about it. The “it” in question is the dollar carry trade. This is an investment strategy that has recently been extremely profitable and as a result has become increasingly popular.

Charlie Rose sits down with Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and author of the new book The Next Asia - Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization, and discusses China. Roach has been based in China for the past three years and describes why he loves it and what he has learned. A link to the transcript of the interview follows at the end of the post.

Click here or on the image below to view the video. (As there is no direct link to the clip, you need to click on “Archive” on the Charlie Rose site, and then scroll down to the Roach video of October 23.)

Click here for a transcript of the interview.

Source: Charlie Rose, October 23, 2009.

The Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering, a conference bringing together global regulators and bankers to discuss and debate new ideas and develop a new set of guidelines moving forward, has just taken place in New York. Michael Panzer, writer of the Financial Armageddon blog and author of “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse”, was in attendance and has kindly shared some of the more interesting quotes on his blog, as reported below.

Secretary Tim Geithner, United States Department of the Treasury:

“Generally, we did not do enough.” (Referring to the failure to address growing concerns over excessive risk-taking in the period leading up to the financial crisis.) [Editor's note: understatement of the year?]

Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia:

Those who are looking for a “V”-shaped recovery are in for “a rude awakening.”

“The imbalances going into the crisis were large to begin with.

This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Mike Shedlock (Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis): Is the stock market a leading indicator?, October 12, 2009. The stock market is at best a coincident indicator, known only well after the fact. Furthermore, even as a coincident indicator, the stock market gives many false signals, making it totally useless for all practical purposes. The theory that the stock market is a reliable leading indicator is a myth easily shattered by simple observation of the facts.

• Caroline Baum (Bloomberg): Treasury bond rally fails asset-bubble test, October 13, 2009. Bubble sightings are proliferating by the day, and with interest rates near zero, it’s not hard to understand why. Easy money leads to excess credit creation, which eventually produces

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Robert Fisk (Independent): Secret plan to ditch the US dollar’s dominance uncovered, October 6, 2009. Arab states have launched a secret plan with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading.

• Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph): China calls time on dollar hegemony, October 6, 2009. You can date the end of dollar hegemony from China’s decision last month to sell its first batch of sovereign bonds in Chinese yuan to foreigners.

• John Hussman (Hussman Funds): Defensive, but a measure of equanimity, October 5, 2009. My view continues to be that the intrinsic condition of the US economy has not improved, and that the green shoots we’ve observed are a transient artifact

This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find interesting.

• John Authers (Financial Times): Triumph of common sense over benchmarks, October 3, 2009. Rather than watch everyone herd towards benchmarks, while charging fees for active management, in future perhaps a lot of money will be managed passively and the rest will be allocated to investors who can show they have skill, and who have the freedom to go wherever they believe they can profit.

• Randall Forsyth (Barron’s): Is this a real bull or “Red Bull” market? October 2, 2009. After the caffeine rush of the third quarter, stocks and Treasuries give way to less stimulating market action.

• Paul Krugman (The New York Times): Mission not accomplished, October 2, 2009. Stocks are up. Ben

Currencies back off gains…Administration slaps tariff on China…And Yen rallies…Quotes from Davos…And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope your weekend was grand… I was supposed to be traveling back from Williamsburg today, so this is a bonus day for you all! HA! On Friday morning, I told the early arrivers that the currencies were strong, Gold was strong, it was all good, and we needed to close up shop and go home, because it wasn’t going to get an better than that, and that the rest of the day had nothing but disappointment risk! Boy did I nail that one on the head! Let’s get to the goings on.

The currencies added to their gains during the Friday morning, only to see them give the gains back later in the day, as the “boys” in NY all closed shop and headed to the Hamptons. I

This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Doug Kass (TheStreet.com): Market has likely topped, August 26, 2009. Markets top during times of enthusiasm. I believe that the markets are now overshooting to the upside and that the US stock market has likely peaked for the year.

• Phil Izzo (The Wall Street Journal): Economists react: Bernanke reappointment is “good news“, August 25, 2009. Economists, lawmakers, bloggers and others weigh inPresident Obama’s decision to reappoint Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

• Mohamed El-Erian (FT Alphaville): Bernanke’s four point ‘to-do’ list, August 25, 2009. Pimco’s chief executive comments on Ben Bernanke’s reappointment for a second term at Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

• Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph): The troubling side of