Two years into our “Great Recession” (or “Greater Depression,” depending on who you talk to) gold is selling for $944 an ounce. But back in 1980 – against the backdrop of double-digit inflation in America and a prolonged economic stagnation – gold reached a peak of $850. That’s the equivalent to about $1,900 in today’s money.

Of course, the world was a very different place in 1980. Deflation is now the bogeyman stalking the global economy (although here at Notes we believe a surging asset-price inflation is not far off). And back then, there were persistent rumors that Ronald Reagan was going to bring back the gold standard and send gold, in 1980 money, to $1,000 an ounce.

But as John Katz and Frank Holmes point out in their excellent book on the subject, The Goldwatcher (2008), the supply and demand

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by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /“For Austria, the actual crisis is yet to come. The decline of the eastern European economy will hit Austria in 2009".br /Peter Eigner, Professor of economic history at the University of Vienna”br /br /br /The yield difference, or spread, between 10-year Austrian securities and benchmark German bunds has been rising substantially of late, and hit 137 points on Feb. 18, the widest yet recorded (see chart below). At the same time Austria now has a higher default risk than those Mediterranean "laggards" Italy, Portugal and Spain, at least according to credit-default swap prices as quoted by CMA Datavision. Austrian swaps were trading at 253.3 basis points on March 3, compared with 17.5 points 12 months ago. That means it costs 253,300 euros a year to protect 10 million euros from default for five years. br /br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SbFfRtpHzcI/AAAAAAAAM9E/eiB4kvwG70A/s1600-h/austria+bund.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5310130193561013698" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px ...

The following is a joint effort by me and Edward Hugh and if we are both individually prone to writing long and (sometimes excessively) winding entries a combination is bound to be long and ugly; well, the former at least. Surely, it seems, in Macro Man's words that the ECB may have had one of those Damascene moment as interest rates were cut by 50 basis points yesterday. It was not the actual 50 point cut which was largely expected, but rather the ensuing comments by Trichet. In particularl I took note of the fact that now it is not only falling energy prices (disinflation) being mentioned, but also downward pressure on prices from falling domestic activity.

Obviously, the discussion which we hope to initiate here comes in two phases. First, there is the question of whether or not the ECB should be considering QE at all? I

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Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown

The unfolding debt drama in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU states of Eastern Europe has reached acute danger point.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Last Updated: 2:05AM GMT 15 Feb 2009

If mishandled by the world policy establishment, this debacle is big enough to shatter the fragile banking systems of Western Europe and set off round two of our financial Götterdämmerung.

Austria’s finance minister Josef Pröll made frantic efforts last week to put together a €150bn rescue for the ex-Soviet bloc. Well he might. His banks have lent €230bn to the region, equal to 70pc of Austria’s GDP.

“A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the collapse of the Austrian financial sector,” reported Der Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says bad debts will top 10pc and may reach 20pc. The Vienna press said Bank Austria

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Currencies rally…  IFO unexpectedly rises…  Norway looks good…  Gold hits $900 again! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Hey! What a day for the currencies yesterday! Geez Louise, it’s seems like it’s been a month of Sundays since I could say that! And there’s been follow up overnight, although, I do believe I’m seeing some profit taking right now… I went to radiation yesterday with the euro trading around 1.2965… I came back 2 hours later, and it was 1.31! And it didn’t stop there, trading up to 1.3175, but running into a wall of resistance there… But that was temporary, as the overnight market pushed the single unit higher to 1.3250… It did trade all the way up to 1.33 and change on news that the German Business Confidence, as measured by the think tank IFO, unexpectedly rose for the first time in 8 months. This improvement was a result of the

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PDollar’s fall last week is exactly what I’ve been warning about. Bear market in dollar is NOT over. See this article from Bloomberg. -- LarrybrbrDollar Staggers as U.S. Unleashes Cash Flood, Deficit (Update2) brbrDec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest foreign-exchange strategists and investors say the best may be over for the dollar after a four-month, 24 percent rally.brbrThe currency weakened 5.9 percent measured by the trade- weighted Dollar Index after strengthening between July and November as investors bought the greenback to flee riskier assets and repay dollar-denominated loans from lenders reining in credit. Ever since peaking on Nov. 21, the dollar fell against all 16 of the most-widely traded currencies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.brbrU.S. policy makers are flooding the world with an extra $8.5 trillion through 23 different plans designed to bail out the financial system and pump up the economy. The decline shows that the increased supply ...

One of the biggest fears today is that the US is entering a Japanese-like slump that could last a decade. But Justice Litle says we have learned the lessons from that crisis. This time, the government fears doing too little, but gives little thought about the risks of doing too much. And this is why we should be more scared of one day ending up like Zimbabwe…

This from Taipan Publishing Group:

The world is clearly afraid that “Great Depression 2.0” could be at hand. Downturns come and go, but the global economy as a whole hasn’t contracted since the 1930s. Some think it could happen again next year.

We hear less about it in the news, but there is another fear that keeps investors up at night – the off chance that America turns into Japan.

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PKey Newsbr•nbsp;Russia’s central bank probably doubled spending of foreign reserves to defend the ruble from its biggest weekly plunge against the euro in more than four years. (Bloomberg)brimg alt= src=http://local.content.compendiumblog.com/uploads/user/7e88b461-578b-47f3-88ec-038e212ad053/a56c87c5-8253-45b7-aa80-26c89da2fa75/120208-1.JPG _width=75 _height=75brnbsp;br•nbsp;The Canadian dollar recovered some ground versus the U.S. dollar on Tuesday but remained range-bound and at risk of pressure from falling oil prices and political uncertainty in Canada. (Reuters)/P PQuotable brThe great question is whether the government will succeed in reinstilling the inflationary spirit of reckless abandon in American lenders and borrowers.nbsp; Debasement is what the authorities are driving toward.nbsp; It’s why they keep inventing new [lending] facilities.”br Jim Grant/P PFX Trading – Can you say 1% Treasury Bond Yield?nbsp; brThe Fed’s announcement that it will start buying Treasury bonds, along with everyone else in the world it seems, pushes the Fed into official Quantitative Easing (QE) territory.nbsp; /P Pnbsp;img alt= src=http://local.content.compendiumblog.com/uploads/user/7e88b461-578b-47f3-88ec-038e212ad053/a56c87c5-8253-45b7-aa80-26c89da2fa75/120208-2.JPG _width=75 _height=75/P PbrA recent article, dated October 10th, carried in the ...

So goes the title of one of Shakespeare's plays, and as I am slowly adjusting to life in Lausanne and its beautiful environnements I am forced to admit the truthfulness of this axiom. Consequently, and while I have now settled down in a nice shared apartment I feel the need to confess my readers the tremendous difficulty with which I, finally, managed to secure housing in Lausanne. I will not belabor you with details, but merely pass on my humble advice that if you are ever going to Lausanne (indeed, the entire Vaud canton!) looking for short term rental accommodations ... bring valiums or deep pockets, and preferably both!

In any case that is now well past me and to prove that I am now safely and nicely housed I have chosen to flatter this entry

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CAN you feel it? That cold empty void where  Macro Man's dissection of last week's flight of the buck should have been. Of course, this only goes to show that our good MM's initial hunch was right in the sense that when he sets off on holiday fireworks spark from the sky in market land. Last week consequently marked the biggest USD rally (against the Euro) since the conception of the single currency. Actually, last week had the buck written all over it as Uncle Sam's currency rose against almost anything that moved to erase everything but a small part of the loss it had sustained so far in H01 2008. It seems that the exercise of leafing through those Benjamin Franklins is not as pityful an endeavor as it used to be, only a few months ago. Of course, the past week's performance of ...