People can become unemployed for a variety of reasons, but generally there are three: they quit, they are temporarily laid off (historically common in manufacturing jobs like Autos) or the job can be permanently eliminated. David Altig, of the Atlanta Federal Reserve's "macroblog" has come up with some evidence as to why the duration of unemployment is so much longer in this recession than in previous ones -- namely because more of the job losses are of the permanent variety, as is shown in the graph below (from http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/). In good times, a very high proportion of the people who are out of work are so because they have followed the advice of that old song from the 1970’s and told their boss to "take this job an shove it." In the current environment, such people are extremely rare. In earlier post-war recessions, a far greater ...

The stock market is up 51% from its March 9 lows. The leading economic indicators have turned sharply positive, showing gains for each of the last four months. Manufacturing is on the rebound. And banks are promising to pay record bonuses, as their earnings have rebounded.

With this recent rush of upbeat economic news, it’s no wonder commentators are trumpeting the rebound of the U.S. economy.

But I think it’s time to short U.S. stocks.

Shocked?

Don’t be.

What most experts see as a strengthening U.S. rebound, I see as an increasingly dangerous “false dawn” – for these two key reasons:

An overly expansive monetary policy that’s almost certain to spawn inflation. And a record-level budget deficit that will cause interest rates to spike, crimping economic growth. A Foundation for Trouble

U.S. policies that were intended

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$172,000 Payday First subscribers to Martin Hutchinson’s new advisory service were able to collect $13,301 in guaranteed cash in record time. Now, Martin’s using the same “guaranteed payment” strategy to help new subscribers collect $172,000. He explains how here.

The stock market is up 51% from its March 9 lows. The leading economic indicators have turned sharply positive, showing gains for each of the last four months. Manufacturing is on the rebound. And banks are promising to pay record bonuses, as their earnings have rebounded.

With this recent rush of upbeat economic news, it’s no wonder commentators are trumpeting the rebound of the U.S. economy.

But I think it’s time to short U.S. stocks.

Shocked?

Don’t be.

What most experts see as a strengthening U.S. rebound, I see as an increasingly dangerous “false dawn” – for these …

I earlier had meant to link over to this holocaust article by Timothy Snyder published in the New York Review of Books, which although a few weeks old, still seems relevant given yesterday's news of the Russian government shutting down yet another history resource, www.hrono.info.  Snyder's article explores how certain dominant works skew our understanding of Germany's war crimes toward Auschwitz and Birkenau and those of Joseph Stalin toward only the gulags of the East (given the hostile reception to the recent film Katyn, we can see that this is still a very contentious issue).  I only excerpt a relatively short amount here - I recommend readers visit NYRB for interesting arguments on the primacy of Soviet victims of Stalin.

Yet as Auschwitz draws attention away from the still greater horrors of Treblinka, the Gulag distracts us from

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Just because I am safely and securely locked inside the Fabulous Mogambo Bunker (FMB) doesn’t mean that I am unaware of things, especially those things concerning inflation in consumer prices, which is the One Big Thing (OBT) to be feared above all others, even more than that paralyzing fear of someone seeing you doing you-know-what, especially when they see you doing you-know-what with you-know-who and the can of whipped cream, which you never did use, which is the one saving grace about the whole thing.

Anyway, I keep hearing some doofus or another prattling on and on about deflation, and how prices will be going down and how this is a terrible idea, sort of like saying, “Shopping during a sale means you will pay lower prices, and that is bad for you!”

Actually, it is not the falling prices that are bad, but that the falling prices means that

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The big under-reported part of the unemployment situation is the increasing duration of unemployment. Being out of work for three weeks is very different than being out of work for 30 weeks. While over half the states and more than half the population does have extended unemployment benefits, it is a very scary prospect to not only be without a paycheck, but also having already exhausted your unemployment benefits. That means no income coming in, and given how low the savings rate has been over the past decade, likely no money period.Economically it further depresses your spending, and psychologically it is just plain depressing. The average length of unemployment rose to 22.5 weeks in May from 21.4 weeks in April, and is up from 16.8 weeks a year ago. The median length of unemployment has also gone up sharply, reaching 14.9 weeks in May versus 12.5 weeks ...

I always get a real kick out of hearing that “the consumer is 70 percent of the economy,” mostly because it gives me a chance to heap ridicule and scorn on whoever said it, and I say that the consumer is 100 percent of the economy!

One CAN say that, with or without the heaping of ridicule and/or scorn, but at least with an arrogant and smug authority that comes from 100 percent certitude, that “The Mogambo is 100 percent certain that the consumer is 100 Freaking Percent (100FP) of the economy!”

I make this Bold Mogambo Assertion (BMA) for two reasons. First, I hope that by debunking this silly “the consumer is 70 percent of the economy” crapola, I will win a Nobel Prize or some other award that has a cash-award component of the prize winnings, perhaps one that has a LARGE cash-award component.

My argument is that the ultimate

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Gold booms after global strife, Byron King on whether the precious metal is still a buy… Stimulus bill a done deal, details of the final 1,073-page fiasco… States in peril, revenue crash causes budget crisis from California to New Jersey… Wal-Mart surprises Street, Rob Parenteau on retail’s sudden comeback… Stocks dive toward new crisis lows, equity advice from Mayer and Buffett… Plus, have you noticed? One major index quietly up 30% YTD…

So how’s the financial world faring so far this week? One chart should set the scene:

A seven-month high for our favorite metal may be sign that investors are losing faith in…. umm… everything. In fact, gold is up 33% since October, making it one of the planet’s finest asset classes during this “credit crisis.” Who’d have thought?

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Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production Commodities / Food Crisis Feb 09, 2009 - 07:11 AM By: Eric_deCarbonnel

After reading about the droughts in two major agricultural countries, China and Argentina, I decided to research the extent other food producing nations were also experiencing droughts. This project ended up taking a lot longer than I thought. 2009 looks to be a humanitarian disaster around much of the world

To understand the depth of the food Catastrophe that faces the world this year, consider the graphic below depicting countries by USD value of their agricultural output, as of 2006.

Now, consider the same graphic with the countries experiencing droughts highlighted.

China

The drought in Northern China, the worst in 50 years, is worsening, and summer harvest is now threatened. The area of affected crops has expanded to 161 million mu (was 141 million last week),

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The private jets were the last straw. I speak of the chosen mode of transportation for the “Big Three” automaker CEOs last week. When the heads of GM, Ford and Chrysler made their trek to Washington, they did so in the style of fat cats. They should have flown coach.

I’m serious.

Flying coach would have been little more than a gesture, sure. But it would have said something at least. It would have shown that these knuckleheads aren’t completely tone-deaf. But they are tone deaf. They’re crap at the little things.

And in the end, it’s really all about the little things. When you add up all the little things, you get a big impact.

Take Honda, for example. Did you know Honda is in the soybean business? As Forbes tells it, “Honda couldn’t brook the sight of the shipping containers

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