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Debt Prices Fall as Germany, U.S. Eye Large Tax Cuts

Contrarian Profits (January 5th, 2009) Writes:

Debt prices plummet, dollar gains… U.S. stocks fall on profit-taking but rise in Europe…  Dollar at 3-week high vs euro on hopes for stimulus plan… Oil gains as Gaza fighting raises Mideast supply worries.

News about a planned U.S. stimulus package helped pull investors into the dollar on Monday but U.S. Treasury prices slumped on fears a price bubble is about to pop in the face of a massive wave of fresh debt.

European equities advanced for the fifth session in a row, spurred by gains in shares of oil companies on the back of rising crude prices. U.S. stocks were mostly lower as investors took profits on the rally that was racked up in thin trading last week.

Oil prices hit a three-week high as Israel’s deepening incursion into Gaza and a Russian gas dispute heightened fears about supplies.

Prospects for a swelling supply of government debt

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US Dollar Falls vs Euro, Pound Under Pressure

Contrarian Profits (December 30th, 2008) Writes:

US dollar falls against euro, currency basket… Pound hits 6-1/2-yr low vs dlr, near parity with euro… Swiss franc supported by Israel-Hamas conflict… Prices of US single-family homes plunge in October

The U.S. dollar fell against the euro and a basket of currencies on Tuesday as weak U.S. housing data and a dim economic outlook for the start of 2009 weighed on the currency.

The contrast of aggressive monetary easing in the United States versus a more cautious European Central Bank is lending support to the euro while hurting the greenback, analysts said.

Some market participants also cited the ongoing conflict in Gaza and Israel, as supporting the Swiss franc near a five-month high.

Meanwhile, sterling continued its downtrend, hitting a 6-1/2 year low against the U.S. dollar and hovering near record lows in sight of parity against the euro on prospects of UK interest rates being cut

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US Stocks, Wall St Falls on Dow Chemical (DOW) News

Contrarian Profits (December 29th, 2008) Writes:

Dow Chemical, Kuwait deal collapses… Nasdaq dragged by large-cap tech companies… Oil rises above $38 per barrel on Middle East tensions…  Dow off 1.6 pct, S&P off 1.6 pct, Nasdaq off 2.3 pct

Wall Street stumbled on Monday after a joint venture between Kuwait and Dow Chemical fell through, threatening one of the larger merger deals of the year and adding to fears about a faltering global economy.

Dow shares tumbled to their lowest since 1991 after Kuwait decided to end a $17.4 billion petrochemical joint venture amid slumping petrochemical sales and the global financial crisis.

The news ignited worries that the largest U.S. chemical company would not be able to buy rival Rohm & Haas , which Dow agreed to acquire for about $15.3 billion in July. Rohm & Haas (ROH) shares fell as much as 25 percent.

These declines were also exacerbated

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Why The IMF’s Decision To Agree A Latvian Bailout Programme Without Devaluation Is A Mistake

Edward Hugh (December 22nd, 2008) Writes:
The IMF finally announced it's Latvia "bailout" plan on Friday. The plan involves lending about €1.7 billion ($2.4 billion) to Latvia to stabilise the currency and financial support while the government implements its economic adjustment plan. The loan, which will be in the form of a 27-month stand-by arrangement, is still subject to final approval by the IMF's Executive Board but is likely to be discussed before the end of this year under the Fund's fast-track emergency financing procedures, and it is not anticipated that there will be any last minute hitches (although I do imagine some eyebrow raising over the decision to support the continuation of the Lat peg). The Latvian government admits that some of the IMF economists involved in the negotiations advocated a devaluation of the lat as a way of ammeliorating the ...
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Anders Aslund, Argentina, Australia, Baltic states, Baltics, Bank, bank bailout programmes;, Banking, ben bernanke, big banks, Bulgaria, Canada, Christoph Rosenberg, convulsions, Denmark, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Economics, Edward Hugh, end-product, energy, Estonia, EUR, Europe, European, european commission, European Union, finance ministry, Frank Gill;, Frontier Markets, http, Hungary, Iceland, IMF's Executive Board;, IMF's;, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Monetary Fund, Japan, Latvia, Latvian government, Lithuania, London, LVL;, Mexico, Moscow Times, New Zealand, Nordic Countries;, Norway, Oil, Parex Bank;, Peterson Institute, retail, Reuters, Riga, Russia, SEB, Spain, Standard;, Swedbank, Sweden, Swedish Government, Switzerland, The Moscow Times, Turkey, Ukraine, United States, USD, www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2008/pr08310.htm;

Dollar, Gov’t Bond Yields Sink to New Lows

Contrarian Profits (December 17th, 2008) Writes:

Dollar plunges to 13-1/2 year trough vs yen, below 88… European, U.S. government debt touch fresh historic lows… Morgan Stanley’s, PNB Paribas’ losses lead stocks lower… Oil slips; OPEC’s record cut doesn’t offset demand slide

The dollar fell anew against the euro and yen while yields on U.S. and European government debt traded at or near historic lows on Wednesday, a day after the bold credit easing by the Federal Reserve to combat a worsening recession.

Oil prices dropped as much as $3 a barrel after dealers said a record supply cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would not be enough to counter slumping energy demand brought on by the global economic downturn.

Equity markets on either side of the Atlantic slid as the initial enthusiasm over the Fed’s surprisingly aggressive interest rate cut on Tuesday gave way to weak financial results at key banks and

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So Where Did All the Money Go? - Analyst Blog

Dirk Van Dijk (December 16th, 2008) Writes:
The following article discusses Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS), Bank of America Corporation (BAC), General Electric Company (GE), Ford Motor Company (F) and General Motors Corporation (GM).

From 2004 through the 3rd quarter of 2007, corporate America enjoyed one of the most robust periods of profitability ever. This should have left it in very good shape financially when the downturn occurred. However, this has not been the case. Every time you open the paper it seems like there is another company on the ropes and potentially looking for a bailout.

So where did all the money go? Well, last week Standard & Poor's came out with their quarterly tabulation of dividends and share buybacks for S&P 500 firms. It's clear all the money went back to the shareholders in either dividends or share repurchase. Given that dividends cause a taxable event in the year they are paid

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Russia’s Economic And Financial Meltdown Continues Apace

Edward Hugh (December 16th, 2008) Writes:
By Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Russia's foreign-exchange reserves have been now been declining very rapidly since mid August, and as the money goes so does the faith that the large stock of reserves the country built up during the boom times would be sufficient to see them through any downturn in energy prices. As the money leaves, so it seems does the decade of economic growth and stability which they symbolised. Indeed so rapid has been the decline that Russia's international reserves, which are the third-biggest after those of China and Japan, have now fallen $161 billion, or 27% percent, since 8 August last, and decreased by $17.9 billion to $437 billion in the week to 5 December. Investors have now pulled $211 billion out of the country since August, according to estimates by BNP Paribas.br /br /br /pa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUbQptNe4tI/AAAAAAAALyE/K0xlBOy3AlA/s1600-h/russia+GDP.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5280137028067844818" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: ...
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Aeroflot, Alexei Kudrin, Andrei Klepach;, Baltic states, Bank, bank mortgages;, Banking, Bnp Paribas, br /br /Moody's Investors Service;, Capital Economics Ltd.;, Car Production, central bank, China, credit ratings agency, crude oil, Deutsche Bank, Economics, Edward Hugh, energy, energy exporter, Energy Prices, Evgeny Gavrilenkov;, evident oil price impact;, Federal Customs Service;, Federal Statistics Service, finance ministry, Ford Motor, former Soviet Union, Frank Gill;, Hungary, Igor Shuvalov, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Monetary Fund, Japan, Julian Rimmer, Latvia, London, lower oil prices, MDM Bank, Moody's Investors Service, Moscow, Moscow Times, National Wellbeing Fund;, Natural Gas, Neil Shearing;, non-energy;, non-oil exports, non-oil external current account deficit;, non-oil external current account;, Oil, Oil And Gas, Oil Prices, Oleg Vyugin;, ratings agency, Real Estate Prices, Reserve Fund, retail, Romania, RTS, RUB, Russia, Russian Government, Soviet Union, Sperbank;, St. Petersburg, St. Petersburg factory;, Standard;, state-run development bank, Steel pipe production;, The Moscow Times, Transaero;, Troika Dialog, Ukraine, United States, Urals, UralSib Financial Corp., USD, Vnesheconombank, VTB Bank Europe, VTB Group

Repurchase Cutbacks Identify the Weak… and the Poor

Investment U (December 11th, 2008) Writes:

Repurchase Cutbacks Identify the Weak… and the Poor

Standard & Poor’s just reported that third-quarter stock buybacks declined by almost 48% amongst S&P 500 firms. Cumulatively, that’s almost $156 billion less for the full year than 2007.

These repurchase cutbacks give us a window into who’s healthy - and who’s not. Companies that buy back shares have higher profits and generally outperform those that do not. Firms worried about income or financing are going to be the first ones to cut back or suspend share buybacks.

Surprisingly, the Information Technology sector accounts for 25% of all buybacks. While Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) took the top spot, energy companies only accounted for 18% of buybacks. That’s low, considering their record-breaking profits this year. Does this spell trouble for gas giants in 2009?

It was technology companies that dominated the top 10 spots. In the third quarter, they

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Overly Leveraged Private Equity Deals Add to Unemployment and Deepen Recession

Shah Gilani (December 11th, 2008) Writes:

The once booming business of private equity faces an uncertain future. What’s not uncertain, however, is that many private equity deals are imploding from the weight of leveraged debt and greed. Inevitable bankruptcies will result in higher unemployment and a deeper recession.

Private equity is an asset class consisting of equity securities in operating companies that are not publicly traded.  The name “private equity”is the rechristened, kinder and more gentile label for what used to be known as leveraged buyouts, or LBOs. But make no mistake about it, while leverage may not be part of the name any more, it remains a big part of every private equity deal.

LBO firms, or “franchises”, as Henry Kravis, co-founder of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR), likes to call his shop, acquire publicly traded operating companies. Then they streamline management and operations to increase profitability and hope to cash out

...
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Alliance Data Systems Corp.;, Alpha Media Group Inc.;, American Media Inc.;, Apollo Group Inc, Bank, bank lenders;, Blackstone Group LP;, Carlyle Group Ltd.;, Cerberus Capital Management LP, Chrysler LLC, contrarian profits, Delaware Court of Chancery;, Delphi Corp.;, Federal Deposit Insurance Company;, Federal Reserve System, Fortress Investment Group Llc, GateHouse Media Inc.;, General Motors Acceptance Corporation;, GMAC LLC;, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Harbinger Capital Partners, Henry Kravis, Hexion Specialty Chemicals Inc., Huntsman Corp., John Snow, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co, Lazard Ltd.;, Lillian Vernon;, Linens 'n Things, Market Commentary, Maxim;, Merrill Lynch, non-bank lenders;, piggy-bank, Randall Quarles;, Residential Capital LLC;, Sallie Mae, SLM Corp, sound banking;, Standard;, Steve Rattner's Quadrangle Capital Partners;, Texas Pacific Group;, Thomson Reuters, TPG Capital;, UBS Securities LLC, United Rentals Inc, Us Federal Reserve, Us Treasury, USD, Washington Mutual Inc

The Trouble Keeps Adding up for Russia

Andrew Snyder (December 9th, 2008) Writes:

For Russia lately, when it rains it pours. Not only have plummeting oil prices destroyed the country’s economy, but virtually nobody paid attention to its semi-aggressive war games last month. Even worse, Putin swears he will not be running for president anytime soon. Ford, Volkswagen and Renault are cutting their Russian production. And now the country’s currency gets a public smack in the face.

There is no doubt, the country will be glad to see 2008 come to an end.

Out of all of the horrific economic events taking place in Russia these days, none is more intriguing than Standard & Poor’s move it made earlier today. The company cut Moscow’s debt rating to just two notches above the dreaded “junk” status.

Thanks to a huge outflow of cash from Russia’s once-monumental reserves, the country’s debt is starting to join the ranks of failing companies like Ford (NYSE:F) and General Motors

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