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Energy Blast – Nov 16, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (November 16th, 2009) Writes:
Uppsala University in Sweden says the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook 'drastically underplayed the scale of future oil shortages'.  Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has won Slovenia's approval for the South Stream pipeline, 'undermining European Union efforts to reduce dependency on Russian gas supplies'.  A deal was signed late on Saturday, marking the fifth and final signatory of 'all the European partners needed for this project to be completed'.  Gazprom could receive 'exclusive rights' as a supplier of liquefied natural gas to Singapore after the expiry of a current contract with British Gas.  RusAl is planning to sell a 10% stake to help repay its $14 billion debt, and may offer special ventures and access deals in a reported bid to help China take the lion's share.  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says his country's nuclear rights are 'not ...

Energy Blast – Oct 23, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (October 23rd, 2009) Writes:
In a meeting with Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, Vladimir Putin made a surprise announcement that the South Stream pipeline, a joint project between Gazprom and Italy's Eni, could be finished before its official start-up date of 2013.  Plans for South Stream's expanded volume were discussed by Russia's Energy Ministry in Bulgaria this week, as was the controversial plan to use the existing Bulgarian gas transit network to aid this expansion. Transneft says it will complete its China pipeline by the end of the year. Russia's Energy Minister is leaving the question of Rosneft's privatization open, with the possibility of selling a 75% stake not to be considered until 2011. Canada-listed mining group SouthGobi Energy Resources has secured a $300 million loan from CIC (China Investment Corp). More on Russia's surging oil industry.  ...

Energy Blast – Oct 22, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (October 22nd, 2009) Writes:
Gazprom has expressed an interest in acquiring a U.S. shale-gas producer, to access the know-how to develop similar resources domestically, says the Moscow Times.  GDF Suez has said it has discussed a 10-20% increase in its Russian gas supply with Gazprom, as part of broader negotiations to usher the French company into the Nord Stream gas project.  Electricite de France may acquire a stake in Gazprom's South Stream pipeline to supply its increasing number of power plants.  Turkey's government has apparently approved geological exploration work for South Stream in its Black Sea economic zone.  The partnership behind the Nabucco pipeline project is, says Bloomberg, 'confident' it will have enough fuel, including gas from the Azeri Shah Deniz field.  Russian oil and petrochemical exporters reported a 45% decrease in revenue in the first nine months of 2009 to ...

Energy Blast – September 30, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 30th, 2009) Writes:
Gazprom will cut output in 2009 by 13.8%, the lowest in history, due to dwindling consumer demand domestically and in the former USSR.  The company has apparently said it is considering adding a third partner to the South Stream pipelineBloomberg has an interview with the CEO of Statoil Hydro regarding hopes to join the Yamal project in northern Siberia.  Naftogaz Ukrainy apparently expects to see a recovery this year for the losses of 2008, maintaining that profit-making was prevented by currency exchange rates.  Vladimir Putin has said that although ultimately Russia plans to liberalize the gas market, a cautious approach is favorable.  According to Reuters, Russia will maintain Gazprom's export monopoly in the medium term.  A project to transport Russian gas from North Korea to South Korea has been halted due to inter-Korean tensions.  ...

Energy Blast – September 16, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 16th, 2009) Writes:
Natural Resources Deputy Minister Sergei Donskoi has said that Russia would welcome foreign companies looking to explore the country's oil and gas reserves as domestic firms lack the 'strength and money' to carry out these operations themselves.  State-run electricity companies will invest $19.5 billion next year, or 13.5% less than planned after the government approved their 2010 budget, according to the Moscow Times.  EDF may take a 10% stake in Gazprom's South Stream pipeline.  Bulgaria's Economy and Energy Minister Traicho Traikov has said Sofia will demand economic incentives from Moscow to guarantee its commitment to its major Russian-backed energy projects.  ARMZ Uranium Holding is reportedly negotiating with Areva to jointly develop deposits in Namibia and other African countries, where one-fifth of the world's uranium is to be found.  The UK is currently on a non-Russian energy push with ...

The Tricky Turks

Robert Amsterdam (August 10th, 2009) Writes:
turkey081009.jpgWhy would Turkey sign on to a massively expensive and redundant underwater pipeline that would eliminate the transit business at the lucrative but over-trafficked Bosporus Straits?  Because when it comes to Gazprom and Eni's South Stream, it is very different to say you support it than it is to actually build it.  Nabucco is likely to work, and looks like it will find the gas to fill capacity - but not before Ankara does everything possible to milk both sides for the maximum concessions.These editors at Zaman don't quite get the issue right, but there is enough perspective here to get an idea of the Turkish mentality on Russian energy politics (resentful of the perceived mistreatment ...

Energy Blast – August 10, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (August 10th, 2009) Writes:
Italian President Silvio Berlusconi has been unabashed about taking the credit for getting Turkey to participate in the South Stream pipeline deal, seeing it as a reflection of his gift for 'great commercial diplomacy'.  For a timeline of important dates concerning Nabucco and South Stream, see Reuters.  Construction of the South Stream pipeline may begin in November 2010.  The Russian government has apparently canceled the 2010 deadline for bidding on reserve capacities as demand is falling.  Tatneft may begin syndication of a three-year syndicated loan for its Nizhnekamsk refinery by the end of the month.  Although hosting colossal gas reserves, could Russia lack the infrastructure to exploit them effectively?  With Gazprom planning to open an office in Rio it looks like energy may be a major factor in stronger ties between Brazil and Russia.  According ...

Energy Blast – August 6, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (August 6th, 2009) Writes:
Turkey has apparently approved 'in principle' plans for the South Stream pipeline to pass through its waters.  Russia may decrease the price at which it will offer to sell power from a proposed nuclear plant to be built in Turkey.  The Economic Development Ministry has sent a proposal to the government to lower export duties on light oil products from 2012.  Ukraine has reportedly paid Gazprom for its $605 million gas supplies in July.  Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko promises, 'we will continue to pay for gas on time'.  Gazprom's official in charge of talks for the proposed South Stream gas pipeline to Europe has resignedRussia and Venezuela have discussed prospects for building nuclear research reactors and distillation reactors.  Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd has made a 'significant oil discovery' in the Kurdish region ...

South Stream vs. Nabucco

Robert Amsterdam (July 28th, 2009) Writes:
These pipelines don't compete, says Jonathan Stern of Oxford, because the Russian one just seeks a new route for existing supplies at 4x the project cost, while the other has no supply or purchase contracts yet.  Stern also thinks that despite Gazprom's reach into Nigeria and Venezuela, this is just politics more than a real threat of monopoly.From the FT's energy blog:

Professor Stern says Gazprom needs the South Stream pipeline to shore up its own transit. The company's biggest problem is unreliable transit countries, he says, and points out the company is also suffering from the low prices set by the government at home in Russia - its biggest market.

But for Nigeria and Venezuela? Political motives are much more likely there, Stern believes: "No one expects Gazprom to make vast sums of money in Nigeria and Venezuela."

...

Energy Blast – June 29, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (June 29th, 2009) Writes:
Gazprom head Alexei Miller has said that situation in Ukraine must be dealt with through 'systemic efforts and policies'.  He has also asserted that January's gas cut-off was an 'anomaly' and a situation to be avoided.  The CEO added that Europe's plans to diversify energy supplies away from Russia will not necessarily ensure greater energy security.  Gazprom has said it plans to use the South Stream pipeline to transport 35% of its gas exports to Europe by 2015, threatening the role of Ukraine, who now handles most gas transit.  Despite Sakhalin-2 holding bad memories for Shell, the company has welcomed Vladimir Putin's hopes for its participation in the Sakhalin-3 and Sakhalin-4 projects. Russia's precarious financial situation is seen by the Telegraph as the motivation for the surprise invitation.  Putin has pledged to maintain Belarus' ...

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