The October edition of the Reuters South African Survey of Economists has just been published. (The Reuters Econometer is a measure of economic sentiment drawn from a monthly poll of forecasts by leading economists in South Africa and abroad and presented in the form an index). The weightings used in the index are: GDP growth - 25%; CPIX inflation - 20%; Producer Price Inflation - 5%; Prime Interest Rate - 20%; 10-year bond yield - 5%; Rand-Dollar Depreciation - 25%.

The Reuters Econometer fell for a third consecutive month in October, falling to 235,60, its lowest level since September last year. Confidence in SA’s economy fell as demand and manufacturing capacity is seen taking longer to improve, as a result of the looming increase in power tariffs, which is expected to further

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Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD) reported its third quarter results of 2 cents per share, well below than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 6 cents and year-earlier quarter earnings of 91 cents. Before adjusting one-time items, loss per share was 6 cents.  Despite the increased production volumes and lower production expenses, earnings were down due primarily to weak realized prices. Revenue for the quarter was $410.1 million, down nearly 32% from the year-earlier level.  Total production for the quarter averaged approximately 113 thousand barrels oil equivalent per day (MBOE/d), up 2% year over year, reflecting the strong performance of Pioneer’s low-decline assets. Oil production averaged at 31.7 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), up approximately 7% year over year. Natural gas liquids production slightly decreased to 18.6 MBbl/d. Natural gas production also modestly increased to 374.2 MMcf/d.  On an oil equivalent basis, average realized price was ...

Last week, Itron Inc. (ITRI) reported third-quarter earnings of 45 cents per share, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 51 cents and 44% lower than the prior-year level. Earnings disappointment was primarily a result of uncertainty surrounding stimulus fund allocation and unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates. Quarterly revenue of $408.4 million was down 15.8% from $484.8 million in the third quarter of 2008. Itron North America revenue was 22% lower than that in the comparable quarter of 2008 due to the completion of a number of AMR contracts in 2008 and fewer electric meters shipped during the quarter as customers delayed orders due to uncertainty regarding the stimulus bill. International revenues fell 12% from the year-ago level. Majority of this decline was caused by the unfavorable impact of foreign exchange rates. The other factors leading to lower international revenue were the completion of a smart metering/AMI ...

Well, it is not as if I relish rubbing salt into old wounds, but this quote from the a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8bb0da5a-c7dc-11de-8ba8-00144feab49a.html"latest piece by Ben Hall in Paris and Ralph Atkins in today's Financial Times/a is just too good to resist.br /br /blockquoteFrench manufacturing output rose at its fastest rate for nine years, according to a survey on Monday, confirming that France has become the economic powerhouse of continental Europe. Purchasing managers’ indices for manufacturing showed France performing significantly better than the continent’s other main economies – thanks to robust domestic demand./blockquotebr /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SvASaIFOk2I/AAAAAAAAPjI/Xa0wjOVFc3A/s1600-h/france+manufacturing.png"img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 213px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5399836193272533858" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SvASaIFOk2I/AAAAAAAAPjI/Xa0wjOVFc3A/s400/france+manufacturing.png" //abr /br /Plenty of food for thought in this paragraph it seems to me. As a href="http://spaineconomy.blogspot.com/2009/10/french-rebound-continues-in-october.html"foreshadowed in this earlier post/a, it is the French economy - and not the German one - which is rebounding sharply, and this ...

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Friday October 30, 2009

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Too big to fail, is still heavy in the derivative market, and primed for a gigantic collapse.

Congress needs a chimney sweep to clean the soot from the smoke they’ve been blowing. Our do nothing congress; well we can’t really say do nothing, they did bail out the banks, and they have raised more money for themselves this session from Insurance, health care and bank lobbyists than in any other one year period, and the year isn’t even over. Now they are spreading the word, the gospel of Obama, it’s time to

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Colgate Palmolive Company (CL) reported results for the third quarter of 2009 with earnings of $1.12 per share, which was a penny above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.11. Earnings were up 13.1% year-over-year, driven by effective price implementation and ongoing aggressive cost savings program. Net sales for the quarter were flat year-over-year declining marginally by 0.3% to $3.9 billion as unit volume increased 1.5% and pricing contributed 5.0%. This was partially offset by negative foreign exchange translation of 6.5%. Organic sales (excluding foreign exchange, acquisitions and divestitures) increased 7.0% in the quarter. North American sales increased 3.0% driven by 1.5% pricing and 5.0% unit volume growth, partially offset by 0.5% negative currency translations. In Latin America, sales grew 5.0% as unit volume increased 3.0% driven by solid gains in Venezuela which were partially offset by an 11.0% negative foreign exchange impact. In Europe/South Pacific, ...

I concluded a post on stock markets over the weekend saying: “After equities’ seven-month climb, stock markets certainly look vulnerable for a decline. Two downside reversal days - on Wednesday and Friday - would seem to indicate that stocks could commence a pullback to work off the overbought condition, allowing fundamentals to reassert themselves.”

Global stock markets, as well as other risky assets, closed sharply lower over the past few days as concerns mounted over the sustainability of the global economic recovery and the outlook for central bank policy.

The performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the charts below, with the top one showing the period from the March 9 stock market lows until October 19 peak and the second one the subsequent period. The numbers indicate an all-change pattern in the performances as risk aversion re-entered financial markets and government bonds and the US

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The MSCI World Index of advanced -nation equities has surged 65% from this year's low on March 9, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has leaped 96%. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities has added 33%. br /br /Emerging markets have outperformed and have seen massive amounts of inflow. But when your main stream markets like Brazil (Bovespa +68%), China (Shangahai +64%), Russia (RTS +83%), South Africa ( Top 40 +24%), start to mature and look top heavy, investors will start looking towards 2nd tier and 3rd tier frontier markets that have been on the back burner. These frontier markets such as Ghana ( GSE -46%), Nigeria (NSE All Share -30%), Kenya (NSE -14%), Morocco (Madex -3.3%), should attract some fund interest and more inflow.div class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/3742382075154765669-837458134324030207?l=danfonds.blogspot.com'//div

“I take the action of the stock and bond markets this week (and particularly today) very seriously. Extreme caution is advised. The primary trend of the market is bearish, and the secondary trend may now be turning down,” said Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) on Friday.

After equities’ seven month climb, stock markets certainly look vulnerable for a decline. Two downside reversal days - on Wednesday and Friday - would seem to indicate that stocks could commence a pullback to work off the overbought condition, allowing fundamentals to reassert themselves.

Bill King (The King Report) reported Art Cashin as saying that since June 2007 the Daily Sentiment Index (as published by Trade-Futures.com), which polls futures traders, has reported more than 90% bulls on the S&P only once. “When would you guess that time to be? July 2007? October 2007? Wrong. It was last

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EcoloCap Solutions Inc. will be hosting representatives from four continents in Korea this November in the first ever public unveiling of the company’s M-Fuel product, an innovative suspension fuel for use in diesel engines. M-Fuel, developed and manufactured by MBT (Micro Bubble Technologies), a subsidiary of EcoloCap Solutions Inc., is an innovative suspension fuel that far exceeds efficiencies for all conventional fuels. This environmentally-friendly and economical product is designed to offer fully scalable and customizable fuel solutions that increase efficiency, lower operating costs, and reduce emissions.

M-Fuel is a suspension mixture of 60% heavy oil, and 40% separated hydrogen and oxygen, plus a stabilizing additive. Nano Processing Units (NPUs) produce the fuel and can be configured to be integrated with an engine, producing fuel on demand, or the fuel can be pre-manufactured for delivery.

The event in Korea, scheduled for November 18th, will have representatives from more than

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