January 8, 2009 - I give Obama an A- on psychology and a B- on strategy - too early to grade on execution. Where I think the strategy is misdirected is that it is running the risk of pushing deeper systemic flaws to the economy downstream which will ultimately resurface, and potentially in a larger, more ugly manner. And when the dust is settled, the whole economic framework is going to be much less stable, because base assumptions and necessities of a free-market driven system are being uprooted and undermined by selective and subjectively executed bailouts.nbsp;nbsp; There is something to be said for pushing through a sickness, resting, recouping, medicating in moderation and ultimately healing - rather than overmedicating and trying to shorten the process and avoid the real pain and discomfort. You can't just bury or medicate away the problems that have caused this whole mess, and that is a ...

Aspire Misery Index This Weekrsquo;s Economic Data (as of Thursday, January 8, 2009) nbsp; nbsp;middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; National Association of Realtors reports that pending homes sales fell to lowest level on record in November ndash; 4% to 82.3 from 85.7 in October. Expectations were for a reading of 88. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; U.S. auto sales fell 18% in 2008, to 13.2 million, from 16.1 million in 2007. Expectations are for sales to drop to 10.3 million in 2009. In December, U.S. sales dropped 36%. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Factory orders fell for the fourth straight month in November, by 4.6%. Expectations were for a decline of 2.5%. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; The ISM Services index rose to 40.6 in December from 37.3 in November. Expectations were for a decline to 37. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Horse wagering fell 7% in 2008. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Moodyrsquo;s Investors Service said its 2009 outlook for the gambling sector is negative. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Obama acknowledged that the deficit appears on track ...

January 6, 2009 ndash; We wrote on December 30, that our near-term price target for Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE) was in a range of $8 to $9 (then trading at $5.34) and as of yesterday, it closed at $7.25, up $1.91 or 35% since we wrote than commentary. This morning the stock should get more of a lift on a stronger market and is approaching our target range. We continue to think the long-term fundamentals for YGE remain strong, and are sticking to our forecasts (see ldquo;Yingli Green Energy ndash; Our Takerdquo;). Our outlook for the solar sector, which we think was way oversold in 2008 on concerns about module oversupply, declining poly prices and tight credit markets, is that a rally in January is likely, and we have been seeing that so far. But our outlook for the broader markets is for a sell-off after the initial buzz of optimism of ...

January 6, 2009 - LDK Solar (Nasdaq:LDK) cut Q4 estimates for revenue to a range of $425 million to $435 million, from previous guidance of $555 to $565 million, based on revised estimates of 245 to255MW of wafer shipments and gross margins of 10% to 13%, down from guided shipments in a range of 260 to 270MW and gross margins of 18% to 21%. Management also guided lower for 2009 revenue to a range of $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion with gross margins estimated to be in a range of 22% to 27%. Previous 2009 guidance was for a range of $2.9 to $3.1 billion. The stock traded down in after hours yesterday on the news to $12.53, down 15.57%. LDK has been one of the solar companies we have been the most bullish on, and while the fact that its lowered guidance raises several concerns, we think the risk ...

nbsp; nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp; nbsp;nbsp; nbsp; January 5, 2009 - LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) closed at $13.12 on Wednesday, the last session of 2008, holding a market cap of $1.48 billion, about 1.06x trailing 12-month sales and 4.42x trailing 12-month earnings. We think this stock is remarkably cheap, and represents one of the best investment opportunities for growth oriented investors and it is the best one that we know of. Here is why. * Strong revenue and income growth - Most recent quarter (Q3) reported revenues of $541.8 million, up 22.7% sequentially and 241.4% Y/Y. Net income for the quarter was $88.4 million, or $0.77 per share, compared to net income of $149.5 million, or $1.29 per share in the second quarter and an increase of 112% from the $41.6 ...

December 31, 2008 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Jesup amp; Lamontrsquo;s Brian Yerger weighed in on A-Powerrsquo;s (Nasdaq:APWR) recent revision downward, and the subsequent selloff in its stock, rating the stock a BUY this morning with a $14 price target, a considerably higher level than yesterdayrsquo;s closing price of $4.11. Here are his takeaways: middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; While APWRrsquo;s management revised 2008 guidance, it didnrsquo;t revise 2009 guidance, which is at net income of $70 million, with EPS estimated at $2; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Yerger is lowering 2008 and 2009 estimates. His 2009 revenue estimate has moved to $625.3 million from $756 million and his new EPS estimate is revised lower to $1.44 from $1.92. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Yerger believes that APWRrsquo;s shares are ldquo;attractively valuedrdquo; at current levels and represent an opportunity for risk tolerant investors to exposure to Chinarsquo;s surging energy market. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Revised price target down from $19 to $14 based on 10x multiple of ...

December 30, 2008 ndash; A-Power (Nasdaq:APWR) one of the stocks that we think has the most potential for growth in 2009, is getting beaten up this morning after management revised guidance for the Q4 downward ndash; with revenue now estimated to come in at about $76 million, down from previous guidance of $158 million, and net income estimated at about $5 million from the previous guidance of $15.5 million. Management cited tough economic conditions which pushed contracts out into the next quarter which it had expected to close in the first quarter as the reason. Well, the stock is dipping below $4 at this point, which even at $4, represents a 0.52x multiple of adjusted sales estimates for this year, and 5.7x adjusted income, and Y/Y revenue growth remains respectable at 55%, while Y/Y income growth is now expected to be 53%, still respectable. As of the most recent quarter, ...

nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;December 30, 2008 - Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) is one of the midstream solar companies we touted in 2008, and continue to think is well-positioned in the group. That being said, the stock has been hammered, along with all of the other midstream solar firms. The stock opened on January 2, 2008 at $39.01. Yesterday, the stock closed at $5.34, trading at 0.66x our forecasted sales for 2008 of $1.05 billion (which would represent 88% Y/Y revenue growth, and at about 6x our forecasted 2008 income for YGE at $115.5 million (which would represent 116% Y/Y income growth). So the question is whether the stock is oversold at current levels, and whether it is timely now.nbsp;The current stock price reflects a relatively downbeat Q3 earnings report (see below), concern about declining ASPs (management estimates that ASPs will decline by about 15% to 20% in the Q4, and by about ...

December 30, 2008 ndash; Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE) is one of the midstream solar companies we touted in 2008, and continue to think is well-positioned in the group. That being said, the stock has been hammered, along with all of the other midstream solar firms. The stock opened on January 2, 2008 at $39.01. Yesterday, the stock closed at $5.34, trading at 0.66x our forecasted sales for 2008 of $1.05 billion (which would represent 88% Y/Y revenue growth, and at about 6x our forecasted 2008 income for YGE at $115.5 million (which would represent 116% Y/Y income growth). So the question is whether the stock is oversold at current levels, and whether it is timely now. The current stock price reflects a relatively downbeat Q3 earnings report (see below), concern about declining ASPs (management estimates that ASPs will decline by about 15% to 20% in the Q4, and by about ...

December 29, 2008 - MEMC (NYSE:WFR) has been a favorite on the Street in terms of upstream polysilicon producers, and despite the fact that it has tripped up on several occasions this year, it is still getting relative votes of confidence. At $13.05, down from $89.61 on the first day of trading in 2008, the question is whether this is the time to buy, or whether there is still risk to the downside. The company showed signs of coming back in the Q3, after missing its own expectations in Q2, citing 'unanticipated' events which undermined the business during the period. It had a premature failure of a heat-exchanger at its Merano, Italy, facility that resulted in reducing its poly output by about 5%; and then its output at its Pasadena, Texas, facility suffered as a result of a loose pipe fitting which caused a fire. But then management lowered Q4 ...