In spite of recent measures taken to avoid more EU gas disruptions this winter, and a new Russia-EU partnership set to be discussed in detail at this week's Stockholm summit, Slovakia's Prime Minister can't see Kiev being able to pay its gas bills.  A $300 million EBRD loan to Naftogaz, intended to help it manage the import and storage of gas from Russia, has just been delayed after the Ukrainian company failed to implement key reforms.  Gazprom chief, Alexander Medvedev, says the company's 2009 profits are forecasted at around $42.5 billion - and that's in spite of end-of-year export cuts of 10%.  He has also challenged reports that supply will outstrip demand until 2015, forecasting the end of the surplus for either 2011 or 2012, depending on your source.  Speaking as chair of a petrochemicals conference ...

Earlier today, cigarette manufacturer and marketer Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, benefiting from price increases in some markets. Earnings per share came in at 93 cents, 3 cents above the Zacks Consensus Estimate. On a year-over-year basis, Philip Morris’ earnings per share was flat (excluding a tax benefit of 8 cents in 2008), while net revenues declined 4.6% to $16.6 billion, attributable to unfavorable currency translations and weak results in the European Union (EU), Eastern Europe and Middle East & Africa (EEMA) markets. Revenue, Volumes & Margins On an organic basis (excluding currency and acquisitions), revenues increased 4.1% driven by favorable pricing. Cigarette volume was down almost 3% year-over-year to 219.3 billion units, mainly because of declines in EU, EEMA and Asia. The first two regions were adversely affected by the economic crisis (especially in Spain and Ukraine) and unfavorable comparisons ...

Recently, Motorola Inc (MOT) was awarded a contract to supply EuroDOCSIS 3.0 digital video modems to UPC Broadband for its pan-European network. UPC Broadband is the European division of Liberty Global Inc (LBTYA), the largest cable TV operator in Europe.  Using Motorola’s SBV6120E EuroDOCSIS 3.0 voice and data solution, UPC will deliver high-speed (120 Mbps) data and IP voice and services to its customers in The Netherlands, Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Switzerland. The SBV6120E is part of Motorola's complete portfolio of bandwidth-expanding EuroDOCSIS 3.0-certified technologies.  EuroDOCSIS 3.0 standard is based on 8 MHz channels whereas U.S. DOCSIS 3.0 standard is based on 6 MHz channels. Motorola’s DOCSIS 3.0 solutions enable cable operators to cost-effectively introduce new value-added services, increase bandwidth for feature-rich services, generate higher return on investment, and increase revenues.  Although the financial terms of this contract haves not been disclosed, ...

ProLogis (PLD), a leading global provider of distribution facilities, recently agreed to lease about 154,000 square feet of newly developed space in the Czech Republic to Geis Logistics.

The leased facility at ProLogis Park Ostrava is strategically located close to the Ostrava city center – a premier administrative and manufacturing hub in the country. The site provides immediate access to major centers of commerce in the region through a highway network and Ostrava International Airport.

Geis Logistics will utilize the facility as a central warehouse for its operations in the Czech Republic and Slovakia and as a gateway to other Eastern European markets. Besides its prime location, the facility would also provide access to a talented pool of workforce that in turn could increase the company’s efficiency.

ProLogis owns and manages interests in over 2,500 distribution facilities, service offices and properties spanning 475 million square feet of space

...

Country classification has gotten really interesting in the past couple of years with the rising interest in emerging and frontier markets. But that's probably just my inner unrepentant nerd talking.

Right now, in the wake of MSCI’s reclassification of Israel as a developed market, I’m working on a rundown of the country classifications of four major index providers: MSCI, Dow Jones, FTSE and Standard & Poor’s.

The evolution of emerging markets (and sometimes devolution of developed markets—see Greece, which could lose developed-market status in the FTSE indexes) is just particularly fascinating to me. Take some of the frontier/emerging markets that the index providers cover at the very bottom rungs of the investability ladder: Latvia? Slovakia? Trinidad & Tobago? Mauritius?

Frankly, I’m dying to know what the investment stories are behind these tiny, tiny markets. And while I believe frontier markets (like, say, Vietnam) offer some awesome investment opportunities, is anyone really itching to

...

Today’s Notes reads more like a John le Carre novel than an investment newsletter. But bear with us. It tracks one of the most fascinating news stories you’ve never heard of.  The news reports are maddeningly sketchy. And the mainstream media is doing a damn good job of not reporting the story.

But it’s clear the arrests by Italian authorities of two “Japanese-looking” men allegedly attempting to smuggle $134.5 billion worth of US bearer bonds across the Swiss border is the biggest financial crime in history. And one with major implications for America’s economic security.

For those of you who don’t know, a report surfaced on Monday, June 8, on an obscure Vatican-sponsored news website, AsiaNews.it, that Italy’s financial police (Guardia Italiana di Finanza) had “seized US bonds worth US 134.5 billion from two Japanese nationals at Chiasso (40 km from Milan) on the border between Italy and Switzerland.”

According to the report, these

...

Mikhail Gorbachev has some advice for the United States in today's Washington Post (also see Mikhail Khodorkovsky's very similar "global perestroika"):

Elements of such a model already exist in some countries. Having rejected the tutorials of the International Monetary Fund, countries such as Malaysia and Brazil have achieved impressive rates of economic growth. China and India have pulled hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. By mobilizing state resources, France has built a system of high-speed railways, while Canada provides free health care. Among the new democracies, Slovenia and Slovakia have been able to mitigate the social consequences of market reforms.The time has come for "creative construction," for striking the right balance between the government and the market, for integrating social and environmental factors and demilitarizing the economy.Washington will have to play a special ...

The Chairman of the Central Bank has said that if the ruble were to gain any more it would be a cause for 'concern', but has also said that the bank does not expect a second devaluation of the ruble.  The Moscow Times reports on the way an employment stimulus program is being put into action by a factory in the Saratov region.  35 miners in Siberia have gone on strike over $657,000 in wage arrears.  Russian Railways has come to a $4.3 billion agreement with Austria, Slovakia and Ukraine designed to reduce the delivery time for rail shipments between Asia and Europe.  Digital Sky Technologies chief Yury Milner says that the price he paid for a stake in Facebook was 'suitable' amid suggestions that the company overpaid.  The company also says that it ...

The Federal Reserve reported Friday that its index of industrial production fell another 0.5% in April, after having fallen 1.7% in March. Some analysts took comfort in the fact that at least the rate of decrease has slowed. But any decrease means we're producing less than we did the previous month, and recovery requires growth, not a slower rate of decline.

Source: FRED.

On the other hand, the levels for February and March were revised up from their earlier reported values, which is a positive development.

Source: ALFRED.

Those back revisions gave a boost the ADS Business Conditions Index. But I'm waiting for the backcast value of the index that is able to employ all 6 indicators (indicated by the leftmost vertical line in the second diagram below) to rise above

...

By Edward Hugh: Barcelona br /br /This was Angela Merkel's point wasn't it, if you remember, as she came out of the April EU summit she argued:br /br /“Saying that the situation is the same for all central and eastern European states, I don’t see that……you cannot compare the dire situation in Hungary with that of other countries.”br /br /The Economist made a similar point at the time:br /br /“Most other countries in the region are faring much better, though….Like Slovenia, which joined two years ago, Slovakia can enjoy the full protection of rich Europe’s currency union, rather than just the indirect benefit of being due to join it some day.”br /br /And basically, it is true, not all East Europe's economies are the same, though some of the differences between them might surprise you. There are, of course, many different ways in which to compare the economies of the ...