The October edition of the Reuters South African Survey of Economists has just been published. (The Reuters Econometer is a measure of economic sentiment drawn from a monthly poll of forecasts by leading economists in South Africa and abroad and presented in the form an index). The weightings used in the index are: GDP growth - 25%; CPIX inflation - 20%; Producer Price Inflation - 5%; Prime Interest Rate - 20%; 10-year bond yield - 5%; Rand-Dollar Depreciation - 25%.

The Reuters Econometer fell for a third consecutive month in October, falling to 235,60, its lowest level since September last year. Confidence in SA’s economy fell as demand and manufacturing capacity is seen taking longer to improve, as a result of the looming increase in power tariffs, which is expected to further

By Cees Bruggemans, Chief Economist FNB

With an imminent change in SARB Governors, one has reason to wonder whether the monetary policy emphasis may change, and if so, with what kind of implications for the two most important prices in the economy (interest rates and the Rand).

The two terms of Governor Mboweni since 1999 stand out clearly for what they achieved.

The SARB can claim successful regulatory bank oversight, an important explanation why South Africa got through the recent global financial crisis without any major bank problems.

Governor Mboweni’s era began with inflation targeting, a new approach strategically imposed by government. This was a major break with the past as the SARB started to conduct a new monetary policy (philosophy).

There was a distinct break with Governor Mboweni’s predecessors, where Governor Stals’s policy could be

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• Cumberland Pharmaceuticals announced that an initial public offering of its 5.0 million shares was priced at $17 per share.  The stock will start trading with the symbol CPIX

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• Tellabs (NASDAQ:TLAB) announced a $200 million share buyback plan; its Chairman

The June edition of the Reuters South African Survey of Economists has just been published. (The Reuters Econometer is a measure of economic sentiment drawn from a monthly poll of forecasts by leading economists in South Africa and abroad and presented in the form an index). The weightings used in the index are: GDP growth - 25%; CPIX inflation - 20%; Producer Price Inflation - 5%; Prime Interest Rate - 20%; 10-year bond yield - 5%; Rand-Dollar Depreciation - 25%.

The June Econometer fell to a 9-month low on expectations the economy will contract faster than previously expected and the central bank may have reached the end of its interest rate cuts. June’s survey has shown that the economy is expected to contract more than previously expected. Contributing to the further contraction was the

The May edition of the Reuters South African Survey of Economists has just been published. (The Reuters Econometer is a measure of economic sentiment drawn from a monthly poll of forecasts by leading economists in South Africa and abroad and presented in the form an index). The weightings used in the index are: GDP growth - 25%; CPIX inflation - 20%; Producer Price Inflation - 5%; Prime Interest Rate - 20%; 10-year bond yield - 5%; Rand-Dollar Depreciation - 25%.

After  reaching  a  2-year  high  in  March,  the  Econometer  has  fallen  in  each  of  the  past  two  months.  The lingering weakness in the economy and concerns that the decline in inflation has not been as rapid as previously expected has resulted in the May Econometer falling further to 251,97.

With the confirmation of economic recession coming