Chicago, IL – November 23, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: China Mobile (CHL), Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), China Unicom (CHU), China Telecom (CHA) and Vodafone (VOD).

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Here are highlights from Friday’s Analyst Blog:

China Mobile Outlines 4G Plan

China Mobile (CHL), the world’s largest wireless carrier by subscriber, has revealed its plan to commence the trial run of its 4G network during World Expo 2010 to be held in Shanghai from May 1 to Oct 31, 2010. The company’s 4G service is based on the TD-LTE (Time Division Duplex Long Term Evolution) mobile broadband technology. Roughly 200 participants and 70 million visitors are expected to assemble at the Expo.

China Mobile has recently selected Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) for the responsibilities of design, construction, installation and integration of communication infrastructure to facilitate the 4G network trial. The TD-LTE network will provide advanced wireless services (including high-definition TV and ultra-fast broadband Internet access) to the visitors at the exposition.

The three major Chinese telecom operators China Mobile, China Unicom (CHU) and China Telecom (CHA) are investing heavily in Shanghai to improve the city’s network infrastructure, thereby ensuring the delivery of smooth network coverage for Word Expo 2010. China Mobile plans to invest RMB 15 billion ($2.19 billion) over the next three years in Shanghai.

China Mobile’s TD-LTE venture is being supported by the British telecom giant Vodafone (VOD).

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Chicago, IL – November 16, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Quality Systems Inc. (QSII), Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions, Inc. (MDRX) and Cerner Corp. (CERN).

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Here are highlights from Friday’s Analyst Blog:

Apple Opens New Store in New York

Apple Inc. (AAPL) will open its newest retail store with an 8,500 square feet retail space in New York tomorrow. The store will help Apple deliver more Macs, iPods and iPhones, taking advantage of the coming holiday season. The new store is the fourth in Manhattan and fifteenth in New York.

To ensure a high-quality buying experience for its products, in which service and education are emphasized, the company has expanded and improved its distribution capabilities by opening its own retail stores in the U.S. and internationally.

The company operates a network of 280 retail stores in 10 countries across the world, including the U.S., U.K., Italy, Australia, Canada, Japan, China, Switzerland, Germany and France to drive the demand for its other products. Further, Apple is soon to open two new stores in Shanghai as well as London and Paris.

The company further plans to open 40 to 50 new larger retail stores next year, about half of which are expected to be outside the U.S. Apple had earlier estimated that it would open 25 to 50 new stores.

Retail sales increased 4.0% to $6.57 billion (averaging $26.0 million per store annually). Store traffic grew to around 170 million in fiscal 2009. The company has extended its footprint in international retail markets. Growing its presence in the international retail market, Apple opened its first store in Sydney and Beijing and opened stores in Switzerland, France and Germany during the calendar year 2008.

Apple's business strategy leverages its ability, through the design and development of its own operating system, hardware and many software applications and technologies, to provide its customers around the world with compelling new products and solutions, superior ease-of-use, seamless integration and innovative industrial design.

To attract customers during the holiday season, the company plans to offer gift-wrapping of any iPod or portable Mac for just $5. It will also allow customers to set aside a gift and pick it up at their local Apple store for free from Dec. 15 to Christmas Eve.

Apple’s stores hosted 42.7 million visitors during the last quarter, an increase of 7% from the year-ago period. The stores posted revenue of $1.87 billion ($7.6 million per store) in the quarter, the highest level ever and up 15% from the year-ago period.

Last month, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) announced the opening of its own first retail store in Arizona. But we do not expect Microsoft to catch up anytime.

Quality Systems Barely Beats

Quality Systems Inc. (QSII) reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of 41 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny and the year-ago earnings by 4 cents.

Total revenues for the quarter increased 21.5% to $71.69 million from $58.98 million. The company’s NextGen Healthcare Information Systems division posted revenue of $67.4 million for the reported quarter, representing a 23% increase from the previous year.

Category-wise, System sales, including software, hardware and supplies, increased 5.9% to $26.24 million from $24.78 million. Revenues from maintenance, electronic data interchange (EDI), revenue cycle management (RCM) and other services grew 32.9% to $45.46 million from $34.19 million in the year-ago period.

The total cost of system sales, including software, hardware and supplies increased 16.8% to $7 million. Total cost of maintenance, EDI, RCM and other services for the quarter were $21.27 million as against $15.2 million in the year-ago quarter, up 39.9%. Consequently, total cost of revenues for the quarter increased 33.4% to $28.3 million. The company reported a gross profit of $43.4 million for the quarter opposed to $37.8 million in the year-ago period, up 14.8%.

Research & development spend for the quarter increased 30% to $4.34 million for the quarter. Selling, general and administrative expenses for the reported quarter increased 11.7% to $20.4 million.

Quality Systems exited the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $75.4 million opposed to cash and cash equivalents of $70.2 million at the end of fiscal 2009.

Quality Systems, headquartered in Irvine, California, develops and markets healthcare information systems that automate certain aspects of medical and dental practices, networks of practices such as physician hospital organizations and management service organizations, ambulatory care centers, community health centers, and medical and dental schools. The company competes with players like Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions, Inc. (MDRX) and Cerner Corp. (CERN).

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Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

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Contact:
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Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

NYSE Euronext is awaiting final confirmation from China's securities regulator, which is working on setting up a board in Shanghai for listing of firms across the globe. However, the regulator has not yet issued specific guidelines.

Numerous foreign companies, including the global banking giant HSBC Holdings Plc (HBC) and PC maker Lenovo Group (LHL) have expressed interest in listing on China's new board.

NYSE Euronext reported third quarter results on Nov 2. The company swung to a GAAP net income of $125 million or 44 cents per share from a GAAP net loss of $182 million in the prior quarter and a net income of $174 million or 66 cents in the year-ago period. Results included a one-time charge related to merger expenses and exit costs, the impact of the disposition of Hugin Group B.V., the sale of investments in BM&F Bovespa and a fair value adjustment to investment in BIDS Holdings L.P.

Excluding these charges, pro forma earnings per share came in at 53 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus forecast by more than 18%, or 8 cents. The upside was attributable to growth in the company’s core businesses, significant progress from new initiatives which offset lower trading volumes.

The plant has also enhanced Air Products' ability to supply differentiated products. The initial focus will be on several performance-oriented products marketed by Air Products' epoxy additive and polyurethane additive product lines, including the Polycat and Dabco series of amine catalysts, and Ancamine, Ancamide and Sunmide series of epoxy curing agents used in diverse industries, such as coatings, inks, adhesives, construction, appliance and automotive.

This apart, Air Products also plans to build a new world-scale air separation unit (ASU) at its La Porte, Texas industrial gases facility. The energy efficient ASU will replace older assets at the site and provide benefits to customers through higher-reliability pipeline of oxygen and nitrogen supply, and enhanced production of merchant and electronics products including argon and xenon. The new ASU is to be on-stream in October 2011.

The ASU at La Porte will serve customers across Air Products' three major business areas of Tonnage Gases, Merchant Gases and Electronics and increase supply security and reliability. The company expects the ASU to deliver significant productivity gains through decreased energy consumption and operating costs.

Air Products also plans to purchase and operate four existing air separation units to supply industrial gases to Xingtai Iron and Steel Corp., Ltd., one of China’s largest specialty steel manufacturers located in Hebei province, China. Air Products is the second largest industrial gas supplier in North America and the fourth largest in the world. The company serves customers in the industrial, energy, technology and healthcare markets worldwide.

• MedcoHealth Solutions (NYSE:MHS) reported third quarter earnings of 75 cents ex-items, 4 cents above Zacks estimates, on revenues of $14.80 billion, up from estimates of $14.71 billion

• Miller Tabek upgraded entertainment stocks such as CBS (NYSE:CBS), Entravision (NYSE:EVC), News Corp. (NASDAQ:NWS), Viacom (NYSE:VIA.B), and Disney (NYSE:DIS) from "neutral" to "buy"

• Disney (NYSE:DIS) said China approved its plans for a $3.5 billion theme park in Shanghai, set to open in 2014 at the earliest

• Time Warner (NYSE:TWX) reported third quarter earnings of 61 cents a share, ahead of Zacks estimates of 52 cents.  Revenue of $7.14 billion was almost inline with Zacks estimates.  The firm said it sees full-year earnings of at least $2.05

• Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) reported third quarter earnings of $1.02 a share, versus Zacks estimates of 70 cents on revenues of $781 million, which beat Zacks estimates of $695 million

• Energizer Holdings (NYSE:ENR) was removed from Goldman Sachs' (NYSE:GS) Conviction Buy List, on the outlook for disappointment in its margin recovery

A new ETF giving access to Chinese A shares is to be launched in Singapore next month.

The United FTSE Xinhua China A50 ETF, to be offered by the asset management subsidiary of United Overseas Bank (UOB), will be the first China A-shares fund to be denominated and traded in Singapore dollars.

Chinese A shares are denominated and traded in Chinese yuan and listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges. Historically, access to the A-shares market in China has been limited to Chinese nationals and qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs) approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).

The FTSE Xinhua China A50 Index is designed to measure the performance of the 50 largest China A-shares companies, based on market capitalization.

ETFs tracking A shares are already dominant in the Asian market. The Hong Kong-listed iShares Asia Trust, which also tracks the FTSE Xinhua A50 Index, is the largest Asian ETF, with $6.7 billion under management. The China 50 ETF, which tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, has $3.2 billion under management and is the most heavily traded Asian ETF, with an average daily volume of $200 million in the week ending Oct. 16.

According to Singapore’s Business Times, while the upper limit on the QFII quota for any single investor to invest in China stocks is $1 billion, the quota available for the United FTSE Xinhua China A50 ETF is $100 million, as UOB and Rabobank—the counterparty and designated market maker for this ETF—each have a QFII quota of $50 million.

The iShares Asia Trust does not hold A shares directly; rather, it holds Chinese A-Shares access products (CAAPs) issued by a connected person of a QFII. A CAAP is a security (such as a warrant, note or participation certificate) linked to an A share that synthetically replicates the economic benefit of the relevant A share but carries counterparty risk to the CAAP issuer.

Because of the existence of QFII quotas, A-share ETFs have often traded at premiums to net asset value during periods of significant investor demand.

Outside Asia, investors are generally restricted to ETFs tracking H shares (firms that are incorporated in China but listed in Hong Kong); Red Chips (firms incorporated in Hong Kong with substantial mainland interests, controlled by the Chinese government); P Chips (Hong Kong-incorporated firms with substantial mainland interests that are not under government control); and China-related shares listed on overseas stock exchanges. (IndexUniverse.eu recently published a feature on the range of options available to investors interested in the Chinese stock markets.)

According to the issuer, the total expense ratio for the United FTSE Xinhua China A50 ETF is estimated to be 0.95 percent. The iShares Asia Trust has a TER of 1.39 percent and the China 50 ETF has a TER of 0.50 percent, as per the latest edition of Deutsche Bank’s ETF Liquidity Trends report.

China Unicom launched commercial trials of its WCDMA technology-based 3G services in 56 cities (including Beijing and Shanghai ) in May 2009 and subsequently extended that to 44 more cities. The company also initiated commercial 3G trials in 168 more Chinese cities in August 2009.

To facilitate the deployment of its 3G WCDMA network, China Unicom has collaborated with Ericsson (ERIC) under a $700 million deal. The company has also announced that it will adopt a uniform 3G tariff package in an effort to reduce prices for its 3G customers. Moreover, China Unicom will roll out several 3G handsets following the commercial 3G service launch.

China Unicom will spend RMB38.7 billion (US$5.6 billion) to develop its 3G business in 2009 and expects to achieve 74% penetration of the Chinese population by the end of the year. The company plans to invest RMB800 million (US$117 million) for 3G network deployments in Shanghai.

China Unicom operates in a highly competitive environment and faces stiff competition from its peers China Mobile (CHL) and China Telecom (CHA), who are also aggressively preparing for nationwide commercial launches of their respective 3G services.

Expansion of 3G services represents a key element in China Unicom's future growth as high-bandwidth advanced data applications are expected to boost revenue per user through increased usage.

While we remain bullish on China Unicom's prospects in the domestic 3G wireless market, the high level of capital expenditure associated with aggressive network deployments is expected to constrict margins and free cash flow moving forward.

Matt points out that as a closed-end fund, CAF currently trades at a premium. In addition, the Shanghai-listed Chinese A-shares that the fund invests in also trade at a premium, compared with equivalent shares listed abroad. Add it together and CAF ends up being 18 percent more expensive than a basket of similar Chinese company shares listed in Hong Kong or New York.

In other words, you are paying nearly a fifth extra for the hope that other international investors will, over time, attempt to flock to Shanghai. (Read the whole story here.)

For Matt, that’s too high a price for what seems like an outright gamble. There are few who would disagree.

The A-share premium ultimately works like initial repayments in a Ponzi scheme. If China opens up its domestic exchange to international investors, that premium will likely collapse.

But that might not happen for a long, long time. And in the meantime, the premium depends on what price investors in the domestic markets are willing to pay each other. As such, that’s the way I think you have to judge any investment in CAF.

I don’t think it’s very useful to use a year-to-date, or even 12-month, time horizon for CAF. This was a period of dynamic readjustment in global equity prices, where markets were more or less insularly focused.

Instead, mark the time horizon for the fund back five years, and compare the results with other China-related ETFs. When you do that, you can see that CAF easily beats competing ETFs such as GXC and FXI in terms of percentage-point gains.

Indeed, up until the beginning of the market fallout in late 2007, CAF was more than three times ahead of these two.

This was a period when China was implementing all sorts of new foreign-investor-based programs; there was also plenty of cheap money to channel into them. That hasn’t been the case this year.

Of China’s various qualified foreign institutional investor (QFII) quotas, only one bank (UBS) was at its $800 million maximum investment limit earlier this year (it has recently been expanded to $1.2 billion). The rest have around $400 million or less invested in the mainland through the program.

Placing a bet on CAF then is not just placing a bet on China; it’s placing a bet that foreign institutions will throw more cash China’s way. Judging from all the various trading notes I’ve seen recently citing emerging markets as the big profit area going forward, I think that’s a plausible scenario.

As banks become better capitalized again, and if China decides to keep most of its domestic market closed to foreign investors (extremely likely), there will be all sorts of creative ways in which firms try to get in the back door. That, in turn, will mean mainland equity prices begin to skyrocket.

So if you think loose global monetary policy will end up channeling much of today’s greenbacks eastward, CAF could well present a viable investment opportunity right now.

DuPont sales in emerging markets have grown by 80% in the past five years at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% and accounted for nearly one-third of the company's $30.5 billion sales in 2008. While 2009 emerging market sales estimates are expected to drop about 10% from $9 billion in 2008, the company projects 2012 emerging market sales of about $13 billion.

DuPont’s sales in China grew at a CAGR of 14% over the last five years. Sales in 2008 were about $1.7 billion. The company expects solar and light-weight vehicle technologies to help growth in China. The company is currently a major supplier to the crystalline silicon solar cell and module market with products including DuPont(TM) Tedlar PV 2000 and 2100 series, Solamet metallization pastes and Elvax encapsulant resins. DuPont recently launched a Photovoltaic Technology Center at the DuPont China R&D Center in Shanghai to provide local technical support and product innovation.

DuPont materials also are critical to next generation thin film photovoltaic modules for large-scale commercial and utility applications and building integrated installations. The company launched a thin film photovoltaic subsidiary in Shenzhen to focus on amorphous silicon thin film modules, which will become operational later this year.

In India, DuPont’s business expanded at a CAGR of 14% over the last five years with revenues of nearly $500 million in 2008. In terms of growth rate, India is the fourth largest economy in the world, growing in the high single digits. Recently, the company opened a global R&D center in Hyderabad. Paints from DuPont Performance Coatings that can be applied to metal and plastic as well as polymer light weighting materials, including DuPont(TM) Viton elastomers, are the DuPont materials used in the recently launched Tata Nano vehicle in India.

Meanwhile, DuPont has been able to cut $600 million by way of costs so far this year, part of a previously announced plan to trim $1 billion of costs in 2009. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.

Chicago, IL – September 14, 2009 – Zacks Equity Research highlights Tyco International (TYC) as the Bull of the Day and Valero (VLO) the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Textron (TXT), Outboard Marine (OM) and Walmart (WMT).

Full analysis of all these stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2676

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

We are initiating coverage on Tyco International (TYC) shares with an Outperform rating and $36 target price.

The company's third-quarter results benefited from the improvement in key metrics like account growth, average revenue per user and the disconnect rate, which helped sustain recurring revenues.

Tyco is increasing capital expenditure on Research & Development at its two new centers in Shanghai and Bangalore, which are focused on developing products tailored to respective local markets. The company is aggressively pursuing its restructuring program and expects to realize tangible benefits in 2010.

Bear of the Day:

We reiterate our Underperform rating for Valero (VLO) shares as a combination of weak demand, excess production capacity and narrowing crude quality spreads are expected to weigh on near-term margins.

In addition to the near-term margin issues, commissioning of new refineries and extension projects indicate future struggle as global demand for almost all fuel products (except gasoline) is trending down.

The medium to long-term outlook also remains cloudy, with unfavorable regulatory changes (growing biofuel mandates) weighing on demand growth and limiting margin gains. Being the largest independent refiner, Valero remains particularly exposed to this unfavorable macro backdrop.

Latest Posts on the Zacks Analyst Blog:

Income, Poverty & Health Insurance

The long-term strength of the economy really is dependent on having a healthy and vibrant middle class. Median real household income is perhaps the best single measure of that. After all, what could be more middle than the point at which 50% of the households earn more than and 50% earn less than?

Yes the aggregate amount of income is important, but so is the distribution. If the economy grows by, say, $100 billion (a small increase in the context of a $14 trillion economy), but that is a result of 100 families each gaining a billion, and the other 99.999% of families seeing no increase, how much do you think demand will increase?

True, you would stimulate spending on yachts and private airplanes, but really -- how many jobs does that translate to? It’s nice for those 100 families, but from the perspective of the overall society, what is the point? It might be good for Textron (TXT) and Outboard Marine (OM), but they make up a very small segment of the overall market and economy. Recently, Carlos Slim of Mexico joined the ranks of the richest people in the world, but does that mean that Mexico is getting substantially more wealthy?

If, instead of that $100 billion increase going to 100 families it was split up with 10 million families each seeing an increase of $100, the money will be far more likely to be spent and put into circulation, and more jobs will be created. It would also result in more overall happiness. At the margin, how much more happiness does an extra $100 bring to a billionaire? How much more does it bring to a pauper?

From the perspective of the overall market, that widely dispersed $100 billion would stimulate sales at Walmart (WMT) and countless small private businesses. I know that the market generally does not care about poor people. If you don’t have money you can’t consume or invest.

But that is sort of the point, though -- if more and more people are in poverty, they will not be consuming or investing. The fact that the poverty rate has risen by 16.8% -- from 11.3% in 2000 to 13.2% in 2008 -- is hardly a sign of a robust economy.

Get the full analysis of all these stocks by going to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5507.

About the Bull and Bear of the Day

Every day, the analysts at Zacks Equity Research select two stocks that are likely to outperform (Bull) or underperform (Bear) the markets over the next 3-6 months.

About the Analyst Blog

Updated throughout every trading day, the Analyst Blog provides analysis from Zacks Equity Research about the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets.

About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous analyst coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=5508.

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5509.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/zacksresearch

Join us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/pages/Zacks-Investment-Research/57553657748?ref=ts

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

The company's third-quarter results benefited from the improvement in key metrics like account growth, average revenue per user and the disconnect rate, which helped sustain recurring revenues.

Tyco is increasing capital expenditure on Research & Development at its two new centers in Shanghai and Bangalore, which are focused on developing products tailored to respective local markets. The company is aggressively pursuing its restructuring program and expects to realize tangible benefits in 2010.Zacks Investment Research

Shanghai's main index jumped 126 points, or 4.5%, to 2,911.58, while Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average climbed 179.41 points, or 1.8%, to 10,383.41.  Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 374.63, or 2%, to 20,336.36.  South Korea’s Kospi advanced 2% to 1,576.39.

Stock futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street Thursday.  Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 24, or 0.3%, to 9,300. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures edged up 3.70, or 0.4%, to 1,000.80, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 3.50, or 0.2%, to 1,602.25.

On Wednesday, the unexpected drop in crude inventories helped U.S. stocks wipe off early losses and finish the day with gains of less than 1% as investors looking for reassuring sings picked up oil and other commodity stocks.  Rumors that the Obama Administration was considering a second stimulus package also helped sentiments on the Street yesterday.  However, the rumors were later dismissed, with White House spokesman Gibbs noting, "There is no imminent economic announcement."

The 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average added 61 points, or 0.7%, to close at 9,279.16.  The NASDAQ added 13.32 points, or 0.7% for a close at 1,969.24, and the S&P500 ended 6 points higher at 996, up 0.7%.  Volume remained light with only 988 million shares trading on the NYSE and advancing shares ahead of decliners by a 3-to-2 margin.

On the earnings front, the picture was mixed as Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Deere (NYSE:DE) and PetSmart (NASDAQ:PETM) reported earnings that beat expectations, but outlook from these companies disappointed.  Some retailers, though, were optimistic, with BJ's Wholesale (NYSE:BJ) and Limited (NYSE:LTD) offering improved yearly outlook.

Among S&P500 industry sectors, oil and gas shares advanced 1.9% and were the leading gainers.  DJIA components Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) moved higher, up 1.8% and 2.3%, respectively.  Commodity-related issues were not far behind, with basic material shares up 0.9%, following the broad-based gain in commodities. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) shares surged 2.7%.  However, Alcoa (NYSE:AA) led the decliners on the DJIA after Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) downgraded the stock, citing Alcoa's (NYSE:AA) recent appreciation and advised rolling positions into Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), which is on its Conviction Buy List.

Health care issues advanced 1.3%, as Merck's (NYSE:MRK) 2.5% advance led DJIA component gains. A New Jersey court upheld the firm's patent for asthma drug Singulair, and ruled against Teva Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:TEVA).

Despite the day's reported increase in weekly mortgage applications, financial shares failed to gain in the market advance, and eased 0.03%. News of last week's rise in mortgage applications on increased refinancing requests did not have an impact on financial shares.  Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) shares dropped 0.9% and JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) eased 0.7%.

Retailers scheduled to report include: Barnes and Noble (NYSE:BKS), GameStop (NYSE:GME), HJ Heinz (NYSE:HNZ), Hormel Foods (NYSE:HRL), Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST), Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD), and Gap (NYSE:GPS).

Chicago, IL – August 3, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: China Unicom (CHU), Telefonica (TEF), Ericsson (ERIC), China Mobile (CHL) and China Telecom (CHA).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Friday’s Analyst Blog:

CHU Expanding 3G Trials

China Unicom (CHU) has launched commercial trials of its 3G services in 56 cities (including Beijing and Shanghai) in May 2009 and recently extended that to 44 more cities. The company plans to spend RMB110 billion (US$15.9 billion) in 2009, with the significant increase (approximately 56% year over year) primarily attributable to 3G network related investments.

The company plans to cover 284 cities by the end of the current year with 74% penetration of Chinese population and aims to lure 30 million users within one year of launch. China Unicom is currently bidding for procuring WCDMA technology and equipment and has also collaborated with Spain’s Telefonica (TEF) for developing 3G services. Recently, the company has entered into a $700 million agreement with Ericsson (ERIC) which will provide the necessary network equipment to facilitate the deployment of the 3 WCDMA network in 15 provinces.

China Unicom contends with an increasingly competitive domestic wireless market. The company’s peers China Mobile (CHL) and China Telecom (CHA) are also aggressively preparing for nationwide commercial roll out of their respective 3G services.

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In a bubble, Day and Night

Is it Bust or is it Boom

That frames thy fearful asymmetry?*

 (click on pictures to enlarge)

Can you feel it? That calm and soothing feeling of low volatility and heaven bound risky assets driven by green shoots and second derivatives. Well, if you can't you are excused since neither can yours truly, or more precisely; he has a distinctly difficult time seeing from where people get the idea that we are headed for a broad based global recovery. However, beauty as always lies in the eye of the beholder and whichever way you look at it would be difficult to completely deny that the three key ingredients for a global recovery (and a resurgence of carry trade) in the form of low volatility, steadily climbing risky assets, and benign credit wholesale market credit conditions certainly seem to be present in ample quantities.

Now, while it is true that the level of volatility is still higher now than it was pre Q4-2008 and indeed pre August 2007 the trend so far this year has been inexorably down which reflects the perception that the worst may be over as well as the discourse of second derivatives and green shoots which has been with us throughout Q2 2009. With respect to equities they have equally begun to nudge up and are up some 5-10% from the beginning of the year in relation to Europe and the US. If you count from the trough reach some time during the first quarter this year, the increase would of course be bigger. The strength of the recovery discourse has taken many by surprise or perhaps more precisely, it has frustrated many. For example, I take note of the fact that two of the most astute macro traders (at least in my book) are feeling decidedly puzzled by the way the market is behaving at the moment. I cannot say that I blame them. For someone who take pride in being up to date in terms of macroeconomic data and analysis one would find it difficult to track the amount of bullishness which currently appear to have taken hold.

Now, I should immediately point out that I am not blind to the existence of the second derivative. I mean, I took calculus and I can also eyeball a graph in changes when I see one. My only gripe is that it only takes the faintest of scratch in the surface of the second derivative/green shoot glamour image to see that the fundamentals have not changed and moreover that the crisis has now moved its locus away from the US and right smack into the mainland of Europe in the form of significant downside risks in relation to Southern Europe and the ongoing mess in the CEE.

Yet, who is listening to a Danish student of economics anyway?

Consider consequently that the past couple of weeks brought us Bernanke's "exit talk" testimony to congress, news that a certain Mervyn residing at Threadneedle street would beat Bernanke to the exit, news that Russia is actually seriously considering issuing (and expecting foreign investors to bite) debt to cover its 2010 deficit, news that Hungary actually lowered interest rates despite, one could easily infer, an abyss of downside in the form of a plunging forint and a liability side denominated in Swiss francs, and finally Timmy's trip to China where it seems that the main message carried was one of reassurance that the US most certainly intend to vigilant towards the rising deficit.

We could add the Q2 GDP print in the US (preliminary) put up a much better figure, - 1% annualised, than expected which has so far been interpreted as a sign of recover although yet again I think that narrating this as a sign of an impending recovery is somewhat of a stretch. Meanwhile, Europe is heading straight for deflation and although I know that some economists, especially those of the old academic guard, consistently have been pointing to the benign effects of rigidness on the downside it is very important to remember that those same prices will need to adjust in key Eurozone countries absent a currency to bear some of the burden and thus price/wage rigidity may turn out to be a curse rather than a blessing.

Where is the Recovery?

The easiest way to approach this question is perhaps to point out where the recovery isn't and here I am talking about the OECD in general. Surely, we may succeed to avoid future cataclysmic events but the something has changed and new fundamentals are taking over. For example, I seriously doubt that many people have considered what it means for the global economy that the US economy will need to run an external surplus and I also think that most people have not yet realized the consequences of the unfolding mess in Europe and the Eurozone. On the other hand I have also stressed before how I am not, after all, a permabear in the sense that I do indeed see positive signs in emerging economies such as for example Brazil, India, Chile, Turkey, and China (although the latter is different for a number of reasons). I won't call this decoupling because evidently it isn't. To stay in the jargon I would rather call it re-coupling since this is essentially what it is and one key issue is the extent to which the new global economic system will help to even out the present imbalances and what consequences this, in some sense, inevitable rebalancing will have on surplus and deficit economies respectively. In this context and although one should always be careful in quoting onself, the following from an entry back in May still sums up quite well how I see the world at the moment;

We are very much still stuck in the mire and especially so in the context of the so-called developed OECD economies where it is difficult to see where any speedy recovery is going to come from. On the other hand the world is not made up entirely by the OECD edifice and it is exactly the potential for an asymmetric "recovery" and how global monetary policy might serve to transmit such a recovery which is the topic of this entry.

For the specifics of how I see the role of global monetary policy and global liquidity I recommend you to visit the actual post. However, it is worth noting that in a world where major global central banks are destined to keep rates low for an extended period it does not take much creativity to imagine the dynamics by which the global economy may potentially move forward driven by carry trade flows financed in the developed world seeking yield in whatever economies that might be able (and willing) to absorb the tide which is coming.

As I have stressed on several occasions it is exactly this reshuffling of the global economy on the back of the financial crisis which is at the heart of the matter. One obvious consequence is thus that the global economy, at one and the same time, increasingly will be populated by an increasing amount of economies with the need (and desire) to deleverage as well as an increasing amount of economies dependent on exports to achieve economic growth. In wonkish terms, global economies will tend to move towards the same intertemporal preference for consumption and saving and since global intertemporal smoothing, by definition, occurs through current account imbalances it is not difficult to see how there is a constraint on many economies’ ability to smooth their consumption and saving decisions optimally in the case of a process of crowding in one end of the spectrum.

An obvious question here becomes; who, if any, will be the economies tilting the scale in the other direction through their ability to provide capacity (return) for other nations' desire to save more?

How are things in Emerming Market Land then?

Personally, I have tended to put my focus elsewhere than China most prominently because I think that the old narrative of the BRIC economies taking over the helm is not an adequate way to look at it. Essentially, I would put Brazil and India one one side and Russia and China on the other side since in the case of the latter they are about to grow old much before they become the economies so many people expect to become. Apart from Brazil and India I also see a fairly wide batch of emerging economies with the potential to do the heavy lifting as we move forward and I would include here economies such as Chile, Indonesia, Turkey, Morroco and a number of others. Much more than quibbling about the actual candidates here I want to emphasise the importance in realizing how this global realignment won't take place with the emergence of one single economy taking over from the US, but rather with a "basket" of economies/currencies driving the realignment.

Having said all this, it is pretty difficult to get around the fact that everything seems to be revolving around China at the moment. More specifically fears are growing that in an effort the counter the global recession and in a world where 6-8% growth rates are, in general, difficult to come by Chinese authorities as well as foreign investors are fuelling a bubble in China which may look like the one currently unravelling in e.g. the Baltics look minuscule [quote from Bloomberg and the FT]. Thus and even though I would argue that the analysis should have a different fundamental focus it is still cast in the perspective of, first China and then the BRICs in general.

The BRIC nations, which also include India and Russia, have the four best performing stock markets in dollar terms this year among the world’s 20 biggest, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China’s Shanghai Composite Index has soared 85 percent in dollars while Brazil’s Bovespa Index rose 77 percent. India’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, climbed 61 percent and Russia’s RTS Index gained 60 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in the U.S., by comparison, is up 8.4 percent while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 7.5 percent.

Investor appetite for emerging-market assets is building on speculation that countries such as China and Brazil will be among the first to recover from the worst global recession since World War II, said Vinicius Silva, New York-based emerging markets strategist for Morgan Stanley. “It highlights the fact that demand for emerging-market assets remain strong and that companies, particularly in the BRIC markets, are using the improvements in capital markets to raise capital,” Silva said.

(FT)

Shares in Shanghai and Hong Kong tumbled on Wednesday as investors snapped up two newly listed mainland construction groups while selling down the rest of the market after reports that China’s central bank might rein in bank lending. Shares in China State Construction Engineering rose by as much as 90 per cent on their debut before closing 56 per cent stronger in Shanghai. China’s largest house-builder had last week raised Rmb50.2bn ($7.34bn) in the world’s biggest initial public offering since Visa raised $19bn in March 2008.

It is way beyond the scope of this post to open the box on what is really going on China. In terms of that topic I reserve the right to deal with it later and refer, thus far, to my styling on Blake above. However, I did like the recent analysis by Morgan Stanley's Qing Wang in which he talks about whether China is over-investing or over saving as well as the very relevant question of where the money would be spent were it not being used to finance the massive infrastructure investment program. Or, what is the opportunity cost of China's fixed asset investment program?

Given China's high national savings rate, from the perspective of the economy as a whole, there are only three forms in which China can deploy its savings: 1) onshore physical assets; 2) offshore physical assets; and 3) offshore financial assets. Since China maintains tight controls over outbound capital flows, about 70% of China's total offshore assets are in the form of official FX reserve assets as a result of investment made by a single-largest investor - the central bank. Moreover, we estimate that about 65-70% of China's official FX reserves are invested in US dollar assets, the bulk of which are US government bonds.

In response to this I ask the simple question. What is actually the capacity in China to create return on current and future investment of the magnitudes we are talking about both in the context of money supplied by domestic stimulus packages as well as foreign money thirsty for yield? Wang touches exactly upon this question as he questions just how much China can suck up. I would put it much more bluntly. China's capacity is declining and will continue to do so as we move forward as a result of the ageing which the one child policy is set to produce. This is really the missing story on China at the moment I feel and one story which could go a long way to differentiate the story. In this respect I do agree wholeheartedly with Michael Pettis when he says;

I have warned for a long time that it would be very difficult for China to make the necessary transition to a consumption-led economy quickly enough to accommodate the global adjustment taking place. Unless it is willing to see its economy collapse, there is simply no way China can reduce its negative net demand quickly enough to match the contraction in US demand and so avoid squeezing the hell out of the global tradable goods sectors. That is why policy coordination is so important, especially between China and the USD, and of course that is why I continue to be a pessimist. I do not think this policy coordination is taking place. I will write about this more later this week.

The only thing I would add is that this is not simply a question of correcting US-China imbalances, but a more more deep rooted issue in terms of fundamental drivers of international capital flows and the future supply of net capacity.

Moving on to safer ground I recently did a lengthy analysis on Chile in which I concluded that the economy was one of to watch for relative good news in relation to the financial crisis. Recently, we learned how Chilean banks booked a healthy US 959 million profit in the first half of 2009 and although this number is useless in itself I think that it is pretty obvious from digging into the specifics (see article) that although Chile financial sector has seen its share of losses, the picture is a lot less dire than elsewhere. In fact, if we look at one of graphs that I showed in my analysis of Chile, we see that financial services have held up remarkably well during the financial crisis (see also here), no doubt due to strong underlying fundamentals as well as a very aggressive policy reaction from the central bank. 

Generally, analysts and local observers in Chile are beginning to notice green shoots with increasing regularity and unlike the ones observed in Europe or elsewhere in the OECD I am more confident that the ones in Chile are going to be long lived although 2009, in all likelihood, will be a tough year when the chapter is closed. The following quote is from Bloomberg;

Chile’s economy may be starting to recover from its slump as extra government spending spurs growth, Finance Minister Andres Velasco said today. Velasco has spent more than $4 billion this year on tax cuts and extra outlays. He will pull $8 billion from Chile’s offshore savings funds in 2009 to help pay for the stimulus as well as to plug the budget deficit caused by slowing growth and lower receipts from mining.

Chile is facing the deepest recession since 1999 after revenue from exports declined and a virus ravaged its salmon farming industry. The economy shrank faster than forecast in the first half and probably contracted in the second quarter from the first, the central bank said on July 8.

“These policies have effects, but they don’t occur overnight, they don’t happen in one month or one quarter,” Velasco said. “We have to continue working, we have to keep a cool head and at the same time be prudently optimistic.”

Now, Velasco has a distinct interest, of course, in spinning the story in a certain way but until evidence surfaces to the contrary I am willing to buy this story. More generally, the influence of China also pops up in the context of copper prices where many suggest that a large part of the recent increase in Copper prices (and indeed commodities) owes itself exactly to the stimulus money from China. As a side note on this, it seems that the link between rising Copper (and commodities in general) is being increasingly linked to a story of stockpiling in China and then of course, what will happen when China decides that it has had enough. This was a story I picked up on in my analysis of Chile (picked off from Macro Man) and it appears to be gaining traction as an actual analytical explanation.

Elsewhere in Latin America, Morgan Stanley's Latam analyst on Brazil Marcelo Carvalho simply throws in the towel, as it were, devotes an entire note to the link between Brazil and China and what this means for the economic growth of the former. As will come as no surprise Carvalho notes the strong link between Brazil's economic performance and commodity prices and since China certainly seems to be driving the latter, if not directly, then through its effect on overall global sentiment then the rampant growth in China may add positively to the outlook in Brazil.

Moving the perspective up a further notch and as a concluding remark on my, admittedly, selective tour of the emerging market edifice I will leave you with the recent general statement from Morgan Stanley's Manoj Pradhan;

The strong worldwide rally in risky assets since March reflects not just the relief that the worst is likely behind us, but also anticipation of a return to growth for most economies. Much is expected from Emerging Markets, particularly from Asia ex-Japan, which is expected to outperform the rest of the world. Markets and investors realize, however, that not all EM economies are alike, and some will show output growth that is lower than the 1.3% growth our global team expects from the G10 economies in 2010.

Thanks for nothing might be your immediate response here and although I agree that this is extremely general it does sum up the main discourse at the moment whether you agree or not.

Bottomline - What to Watch?

The answer to this question depends on your perspective of course but it seems abundantly clear that if the locus of the financial and economic crisis has moved from the US to the shores of Europe and in particular Eastern and Southern Europe, the corresponding locus of the recovery has moved to Asia (ex-Japan) and most forcefully China. I think it is important to understand how and why these two discourses may co-exist as we move forward.

I believe it is obviously clear that the global economy is not heading for a quick rebound here, but it is equally as clear that some economies will be able to post growth rates that are much above the mean of what the OECD is able to. In this way, one key theme to watch is how this difference is transmitted through to the global economy e.g. in the form of carry trade flows but also in the form of an evolving process by which some economies begin, and go through, their inevitable adjustment and rebalancing phase.

In this specific context I have to be more than a little bit skeptical about the capabilities of China. This is not out of an inherent disdain towards the country but, on the contrary, because I fear that China may ultimately succumb to all those hopes and subsequent load pinned on her shoulders. In this sense I think, although I acknowledge that I have presented no formal analysis to back it up, that the recovery is some way to really materialize and that it may just ultimately be bust and not boom that frames China's economy.

---

* Apologies to William Blake; and of course to Macro Man for encroaching on his territory.