If You Thought the Housing Meltdown Was Bad… Doug Hornig, Senior Editor, (Casey Research):

…wait until you see what’s in the cards for commercial real estate.

That’s right, the next train wreck will be in commercial real estate. Couldn’t be worse than last year’s residential market crash? That remains to be seen. But it’s coming soon, probably as early as the second quarter of next year, and there’s nothing that can prevent it. The government will intervene, trying desperately to delay the day of reckoning, and may even succeed. For a while. But make no mistake about it, that train is going off the tracks no matter what.

Every part of the sector – from multifamily apartment buildings to retail shopping centers, suburban office buildings, industrial facilities, and hotels – has accumulated a huge amount of defaulted or nonperforming paper. It’s an impossible, swaying structure that cannot long stand.

Just ask Andy Miller.

Andy

Two Sagging Economies… Two Laid-Back Banks

by Martin Denholm, Senior Editor

Anemic. Stagnant. Plodding.

Pick your favorite… it doesn’t matter. They all describe the state of the British and Eurozone economies.

Two weeks before the official third quarter U.K. GDP figure is released, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) delivered a somber verdict. The group says it actually didn’t grow at all, confounding those who said the economy started growing again.

Cue a fresh round of some good, old-fashioned British grumbling.

The culprit: a 2.5% fall in industrial production in August, as oil demand dropped. Still, neutral is better than reverse – a gear that Britain had driven in for 2009 up to that point, posting a 2.4% first-quarter slump and 0.6% second-quarter decline.

It’s not alone either. Its European neighbors are also backpedaling. The latest quarterly figure from Eurostat shows that the

London Calling: FTSE-100 Racks Up its Best Quarter in History

by Martin Denholm, Senior Editor Wednesday, October 1, 2009

As September concluded, so too did the third quarter of 2009.

And what a quarter it was for London’s FTSE-100 (^FTSE) stock market. In fact, it was the Index’s best three-month period in its 25-year history.

As global stock markets scoffed at the traditional “sell in May and go away” adage and sizzled throughout the summer, the “Footsie” notched up a 21% gain.

The positive vibes weren’t just restricted to Britain either. Stocks across Europe enjoyed a strong summer, with the FTSEurofirst 300 Index of top European shares posting its best quarter in 10 years, with a gain of 16%.

The question is: How long can the markets – both in the U.S. and overseas – walk the tightrope between bull and bear? As

Euro Telecom Giants Swap Numbers, Agree Mega Merger

by Martin Denholm, Senior Editor

It’s Friday night…

French telecom firm Orange is standing at one corner of the bar, sipping a fine Bordeaux. Its German rival T-Mobile is propped up at the other, slugging down a hearty Hefeweizen.

Their eyes lock. The deal is on.

Before you know it, the two have swapped numbers and arranged to get together.

That’s the deal that has the European telecom sector buzzing at the moment, as Deutsche Telecom’s T-Mobile and France Telecom’s Orange have agreed to merge their British operations.

The result is a veritable cellular beast, boasting 24.8 million customers, vaulting it to the top of the pile in the U.K. and knocking Telefonica’s O2 into second place. The T-Mobile-Orange partnership would own almost 40% of the British mobile market and bring together two firms with combined annual sales

By Adam Lass, Senior Editor, Taipan Publishing Group

This American company has gained 777% the old-fashioned way: selling junk in backroom deals.

As regular readers know, I am a Ford man.

Back when I was a kid, you had to make three really important choices. First, you had to pick a political party. Didn’t matter how well you knew the candidates – you picked a party and that’s what you were.

We are talking Democrat or Republican here. Libertarians weren’t much discussed, and backing the Socialists could get your parents blackballed at work. And if you wanted peace around the dinner table, you just went with the same side your folks did.

Second, you had to choose “your” baseball, basketball and football teams. We didn’t have rotisserie leagues back then, so there was no “à la carte.” You picked your guys, and you defended their every move in the schoolyard and on

Another Monday… Another “Game-Changing” Deal

by Martin Denholm, Senior Editor

Monday is Merge Day.

A few weeks ago, the market saw the busiest day of deal-making in three months, as the news-wires lit up with news of several big takeover announcements, including Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) buying Marvel (NYSE: MVL).

It happened again the following week. In fact, over a 10-day period, more than $40 billion worth of deals were announced.

And even as the third quarter winds down, the pace is still frenetic in the M&A market.

Today saw technology equipment firm Xerox (NYSE: XRX) announce a $6.4 billion deal to buy Affiliated Computer Services (NYSE: ACS) – its biggest acquisition on record.

Xerox investors greeted the news with a collective “ugh,” as shares of the photocopying and business supplies giant spiraled down by 17%. While perhaps

IPOs Heating Up Markets

by Martin Denholm, Senior Editor

What would you do with $3.5 billion?

While you decide between a luxury beach house on your own private island in the South Pacific, or a Swiss-style log cabin in the Alps, Corporate America is mulling over an option that isn’t nearly as sexy, but is hugely important.

Pumping some of it into the IPO market.

Today kicks off a busy week, in which eight deals are on the table, worth a combined $3.5 billion. Among them is Chinese media firm, Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA), which has raised $725 million to spin off its Shanda games division.

Eight deals in a week – the most since December 2007 – evokes memories of the heady days of the mid 2000s when companies were falling over themselves to hit the stock market. Already, the pace of new offerings

Gold price action on Monday looked similar to Friday’s. The bottom for gold in the Far East came shortly after 3:00 p.m. in Hong Kong…rose until shortly after London opened, declined a couple of bucks…but once the London a.m. gold fix was in [10:30 a.m. in London...5:30 a.m. in New York], gold rose to its high of the day shortly after 11:00 a.m. This high [once again over $940] lasted until 9:00 a.m. in New York, shortly after the Comex opened…then it got taken down eight bucks to its low of the day at 10:00 a.m. in New York…which just happens to be the London p.m. fix…3:00 p.m. over there.

From that point it rose right into the Comex close…and was taken down and closed below $940 once again in the electronic market.

Silver’s chart pattern was virtually identical to gold’s.

It was a very uneventful Thursday…at least as far as gold and silver prices were concerned. Both metals rose and fell gently from the beginning of Thursday’s trading in the Far East…right up until the London silver fix 13 hours later…which is noon in London and 7:00 a.m. in New York. By that time, their respective prices were both back to almost unchanged on the day. But once the silver fix was in, gold tacked on about $7…and silver gained around 16 cents by the end of New York trading at 5:15 p.m. A certain amount of this rise may have had something to do with the falling US dollar…which began its descent shortly before 11:00 a.m. in New York.

The only happening of note, was that every attempt by gold to breach $940…or silver to break above $14…was quietly turned back.