This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Economist.com: Jobs gloom, with glimmers, November 6, 2009. America’s jobless rate passes 10% but the job market should start to improve soon.

• Paul Krugman (The New York Times): Why not a WPA? November 6, 2009. A question I’m occasionally asked at public events is, why aren’t we creating jobs with a WPA-type program? It’s a very good question. As it is, job-creation efforts are generally indirect. Tax cuts and transfers in the hope that people will spend them; aid to state governments in the hope of averting layoffs. Even infrastructure spending is routed through private contractors. You can make a pretty good case that just employing a lot of people directly would be a lot more cost-effective.

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While I touched on unemployment duration at the end of my last blog, this is a very important subject and deserves a bit more elaboration. Quite simply being out of work for three or four weeks is a very different experience with very different economic implications than being out of work for six months to a year or more. The focus on the total number of unemployed obscures that reality. The thing that makes this recession so much different than the ones that have gone before it is how long people are staying out of work once they become unemployed. Yeah if you get laid off for a few weeks, it can be a pain in the butt, but essentially it is just an unplanned vacation. It does not really affect your long term financial solvency, nor do your job skills diminish significantly. After six months, regular state unemployment ...

Baltimore-(TFN):Time to panic? If you are part of the Obama administration the answer is yes. If you are an American investor, hold off on the freaking out for at least another month or so.

With the nation’s unemployment rate officially in double-digit territory and the under-employed rate ready to the 20% mark, the politicians that promised bliss in the days ahead are eating their words today.

And that means Wall Street is eating its recent gains.

For nearly a month, the Dow has hovered around the 10,000 mark. After hundreds of billions of dollars were withdrawn earlier this year, it was relatively easy to put that money back to work and send the equities market higher.

But now that the economic data is showing facts of slower-than-expected expansion rather than “ideas” of growth, investors are forced to explain their logic. The Dow doesn’t want to budge from 10k.

So far, I’ve heard very

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Mohamed El-Erian and Ramin Toloui (Financial Times): How to fill the gaps left by dollar decline, November 5, 2009. We should expect to see more discussion in the next few years on new types of reserve assets.

• James West (GoldSeek): Gold price is no bubble, November 4, 2009. The price performance of gold recently has all sorts of armchair economists waxing philosophical on the idea that this is the advent of a price “bubble”. While certainly everyone has and is entitled to their opinion, there are other features of humanity that we all possess, and much like many opinions, are best obscured from view. Declaring that gold is in a “bubble” demonstrates complete ignorance of or disregard for

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 20,000 this week to 512,000. Last week's numbers were revised slightly higher, so arguably the drop was 18,000, but that's still a nice improvement. The four-week moving average dropped by 3,000 to 523,750. Since new claims can be volatile from week to week, the four-week moving average is generally considered a better gauge of where we are. The graph below (from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/) shows the history of that average. We are now 135,000 below the peak set back in April. This is a key piece of evidence that the recession is over. However, we remain above the highest levels seen in either of the last two recessions. The level indicates that we are still losing jobs, but at a slower rate than we had been. In the past we did not start to see actual increases in the number of ...

U.S. stocks ended mixed Wednesday after a late-session profit taking almost wiped off a 156-point rally in the Dow average that was fueled by the Fed’s encouraging assessment of the economy and its decision to keep interest rates low for an extended period.  The optimism was short-lived as investors appeared jittery ahead of the October jobs report on Friday. Fresh concerns over bank earnings resurfaced after the House of Representatives passed a bill curbing credit card rate increases.

After the house vote, financials slumped 1.5% and led the decliners among the S&P 500 industry groups.  Analyst Meredith Whitney noted the biggest U.S. banks may face declining values on home-loan bonds with government backing as the Fed moves towards ending its $1.25 trillion purchase program.  Whitney said bank earnings are far from approaching "normalcy," and will reflect regulatory changes for an extended period.  JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) fell 1.2% to $42.21 and

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – October 30, 2009 – Zacks Equity Research highlights CarMax (KMX) as the Bull of the Day and Genomic Health Inc. (GHDX) the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on J.C. Penney (JCP), Macy’s (M) and Bank of America (BAC).

Full analysis of all these stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2676

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

CarMax (KMX) focuses on penetrating new markets through store openings. The company has kept its inventories closely aligned with sales trends, which has allowed it to optimize gross profit per unit besides offering great value to customers. These have helped the company to maintain a favorable position among its peer group.

CarMax has reported profit in the second quarter, reflecting a significant improvement from the Zacks Consensus Estimate. It

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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has an impressive record with passing big votes, but according to this article on The Hill a robust public option may be too much for the Congress to handle. Pelosi is relying on a complex series of whips to keep the factional Democratic party in line. There are two votes that will be particularly hard for her to get: Rep. Frank Kratovil (Md.): Kratovil is considered one of the most endangered Democrats in this year’s freshman class. He became the poster child for incivility when protesters hanged him in effigy. So it was a surprise when Pelosi snagged his vote on climate change by making Maryland farmers eligible for as much as $1 billion in incentives for reducing emissions. But she might not get him this time; Kratovil has said he’s a no on the healthcare ...

Almost overlooked with this morning's big news on third quarter GDP was the unemployment claims report, which was a slight positive. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 1,000 to 530,000. For a change, the previous week's numbers were not revised. The four-week moving average fell 6,000 to 526,250 and are now 132,500 below their mid-April peak. This is good news, but it is not good enough -- we really need to see another decline of that magnitude to indicate that the economy is actually adding jobs. Note that even with the decline that we are still above the highest point hit in either of the prior two recessions. Still, you have to crawl before you can walk, and walk before you can run. The graph below (from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/) shows the history of the four-week moving average. A peak in the moving average historically has been ...

This week initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 531,000, an increase of 11,000 from last week. Last week's number was also revised upwards by 7,000, so the real increase is more like 18,000. The week-to-week numbers can be all over the place, so the four-week average is generally a better gauge. It fell by a slight 750 to 532,250. It is now 126,500 below its mid-April peak. Almost certainly we have seen the highs for the cycle. While the decline is very welcome, the absolute level is still extremely high, as shown by the graph below (from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/). Even with the decline, we are still above the highest point in either of the last  two recessions. We reall need to get back down below 400,000 and stay there to indicate that the economy is adding jobs. The last two recessions had long periods where, after an ...