I got a couple of reasonable "oh no you di-ints" on the post this morning that tried to compare complex products versus simple.The fund in question is TFS Market Neutral (TFSMX).My only observation was that the fund is complicated. One reader noted that it has more than bounced back from its August 2007 low and another reader said that he doubted that staying simple could match the result from TFSMX over varied market conditions.The chart goes back to the inception of the Rydex Managed Futures Fund (RYMFX) which I own. The chart also shows two of the hotter sectors over that time, as measured by sector ETF, as well. It would be fair to criticize the chart as not being long enough but it has been a wild 17 months and it is as ...

A reader left a question that I think is pretty damn good. He asked "what are the variables that I use that allow you to do a forward analysis of an asset with any meaningful probability of being right." As someone who believes in top down management I focus on big picture issues and then try to figure the best way to invest toward the big picture while at the same time building in some sort of counter strategy in case my assessment is wrong. So instead of looking at a stock from the bottom up and saying ok, here is a stock with such and such valuations that will make more widgets next year for a slightly smaller cost and buying it, top down looks at the world for things like supply and demand issues, turning points in cycles or big long-lasting themes as examples. The world ...